{"status":true,"post":{"id":51260,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-04-29 07:48:00","created_at":"2024-04-29T04:48:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-29T04:48:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":51260,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in yeni tahminler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p><br><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar nisan ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikleri y\u0131ll\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretine ili\u015fkin hem 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 kesin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 hem de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015ft\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc bir\u00e7ok rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak da g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Nisan ay\u0131nda ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyon geli\u015fmeleri de b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan beklenen faiz indirimlerinde yeni takvimlere neden oldu.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130MLER\u0130 \u00d6TELEN\u0130RKEN DAHA AZ SAYIDA OLAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Nisan ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri ve enflasyondaki genel geli\u015fmeler ABD, Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. ABD\u2019de enflasyon mart ay\u0131 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD\u2019de enflasyon kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve yaz aylar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015fesi bulunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk faiz indirimi eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar \u00f6telendi. Enflasyondaki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizlerde hi\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 ve hatta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dahi g\u00fcndeme gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ise enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kan\u0131tlar\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle haziran ay\u0131nda 25 baz puan ile ilk faiz indirimini yapacak. Mevcut enflasyon e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da 2-3 faiz indirimi daha bekleniyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ilk faiz indirimini yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1 faiz indirimi daha yapabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Faiz indirim takvimi bu \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse ABD dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmaya devam edecek. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130NDE YUKARI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc SINIRLI G\u00dcNCELLEME<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin halen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 g\u00fcncellemeye neden oldu. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kacak. ABD\u2019de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.7, Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fczde 0.8, Almanya\u2019da y\u00fczde 0.2 ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de y\u00fczde 0.5 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Faiz indirimleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekleyecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019dir. \u00c7in ekonomisi, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde yine belirleyici olacak. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5.3 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00c7in i\u00e7in 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019d\u0131r. \u00c7in, ekonomide bir\u00e7ok yap\u0131sal sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde Hindistan, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.8 ile yine h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde ve Rusya\u2019da 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 3.1 ve y\u00fczde 3.2 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika \u00fclkelerinde ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2.8 ve 3.8\u2019dir.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME YAVA\u015e OLACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (DT\u00d6), 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 kesin ticaret verilerini de yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar olarak y\u00fczde 1.2 darald\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra miktar olarak yeniden daralma ya\u015fand\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>De\u011fer olarak ise d\u00fcnya mal ticareti y\u00fczde 5 azalarak 23.78 trilyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Hizmetler ihracat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 9 artarak\u00a0<\/span><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>7.3 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. DT\u00d6, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde miktar olarak y\u00fczde 2.6 art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 3.3 olan tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde de\u011fer olarak ise 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Ticarete konu olacak mal fiyatlar\u0131nda ortalama y\u00fczde 1.0 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti 24.64 trilyon dolar olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. ANA \u0130HRACAT PAZARLARIMIZDA DURA\u011eAN \u0130THALAT ARTI\u015eI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli konu, ithalatta geni\u015flemenin hangi b\u00f6lgelerde olaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. En b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar\u0131m\u0131z Avrupa\u2019da ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar olarak sadece y\u00fczde 0.1 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Kuzey Amerika pazar\u0131nda ithalat miktar olarak y\u00fczde 1.0 artacak. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler pazarlar\u0131nda ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok yava\u015f kalacak. Asya\u2019da ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 miktar olarak y\u00fczde 5.6 ve Afrika\u2019da y\u00fczde 4.4 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. En y\u00fcksek ithalat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bu iki b\u00f6lgede olacak. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da y\u00fczde 1.2 ve g\u00fcney Amerika\u2019da y\u00fczde 2.7 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bulunurken, Orta Asya ve Kafkaslar\u2019da ithalat\u0131n miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.8 daralaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ana ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015f kalacakken daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen pazarlarda aktif pazarlama, ihracat finansman\u0131 ve TL\u2019nin de\u011feri kritik olacak. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"dunya-ekonomisi-icin-yeni-tahminler","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1714338000my14WRRrUzgc1Nd.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":4641,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":51386,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":51260,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in yeni tahminler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p><br><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar nisan ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikleri y\u0131ll\u0131k toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretine ili\u015fkin hem 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 kesin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 hem de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015ft\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc bir\u00e7ok rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak da g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Nisan ay\u0131nda ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyon geli\u015fmeleri de b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan beklenen faiz indirimlerinde yeni takvimlere neden oldu.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130MLER\u0130 \u00d6TELEN\u0130RKEN DAHA AZ SAYIDA OLAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Nisan ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri ve enflasyondaki genel geli\u015fmeler ABD, Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. ABD\u2019de enflasyon mart ay\u0131 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD\u2019de enflasyon kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve yaz aylar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015fesi bulunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk faiz indirimi eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar \u00f6telendi. Enflasyondaki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizlerde hi\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 ve hatta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dahi g\u00fcndeme gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ise enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kan\u0131tlar\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle haziran ay\u0131nda 25 baz puan ile ilk faiz indirimini yapacak. Mevcut enflasyon e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da 2-3 faiz indirimi daha bekleniyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ilk faiz indirimini yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1 faiz indirimi daha yapabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Faiz indirim takvimi bu \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse ABD dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmaya devam edecek. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130NDE YUKARI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc SINIRLI G\u00dcNCELLEME<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin halen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 g\u00fcncellemeye neden oldu. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kacak. ABD\u2019de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.7, Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fczde 0.8, Almanya\u2019da y\u00fczde 0.2 ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de y\u00fczde 0.5 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Faiz indirimleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekleyecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019dir. \u00c7in ekonomisi, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde yine belirleyici olacak. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5.3 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00c7in i\u00e7in 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019d\u0131r. \u00c7in, ekonomide bir\u00e7ok yap\u0131sal sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde Hindistan, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.8 ile yine h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde ve Rusya\u2019da 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 3.1 ve y\u00fczde 3.2 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika \u00fclkelerinde ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2.8 ve 3.8\u2019dir.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME YAVA\u015e OLACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (DT\u00d6), 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 kesin ticaret verilerini de yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar olarak y\u00fczde 1.2 darald\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra miktar olarak yeniden daralma ya\u015fand\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>De\u011fer olarak ise d\u00fcnya mal ticareti y\u00fczde 5 azalarak 23.78 trilyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Hizmetler ihracat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 9 artarak\u00a0<\/span><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>7.3 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. DT\u00d6, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde miktar olarak y\u00fczde 2.6 art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 3.3 olan tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde de\u011fer olarak ise 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Ticarete konu olacak mal fiyatlar\u0131nda ortalama y\u00fczde 1.0 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti 24.64 trilyon dolar olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. ANA \u0130HRACAT PAZARLARIMIZDA DURA\u011eAN \u0130THALAT ARTI\u015eI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli konu, ithalatta geni\u015flemenin hangi b\u00f6lgelerde olaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. En b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar\u0131m\u0131z Avrupa\u2019da ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar olarak sadece y\u00fczde 0.1 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Kuzey Amerika pazar\u0131nda ithalat miktar olarak y\u00fczde 1.0 artacak. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler pazarlar\u0131nda ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok yava\u015f kalacak. Asya\u2019da ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 miktar olarak y\u00fczde 5.6 ve Afrika\u2019da y\u00fczde 4.4 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. En y\u00fcksek ithalat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bu iki b\u00f6lgede olacak. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da y\u00fczde 1.2 ve g\u00fcney Amerika\u2019da y\u00fczde 2.7 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bulunurken, Orta Asya ve Kafkaslar\u2019da ithalat\u0131n miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.8 daralaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ana ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015f kalacakken daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen pazarlarda aktif pazarlama, ihracat finansman\u0131 ve TL\u2019nin de\u011feri kritik olacak. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"dunya-ekonomisi-icin-yeni-tahminler","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1714338000my14WRRrUzgc1Nd.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1714338000my14WRRrUzgc1Nd.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":4641,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}