{"status":true,"post":{"id":30075,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 16:14:10","created_at":"2021-12-16T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T13:14:10.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":30075,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken yeni bir y\u0131la haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. Geleneksel oldu\u011fu \u00fczere y\u0131l\u0131n son yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentilerimizi payla\u015fal\u0131m. Beklentilerimizde ana varsay\u0131m, hem d\u00fcnyada hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de salg\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131, a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve kapatmalar olmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklindedir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>1. PANDEM\u0130 SONRASI YA\u015eANAN E\u011e\u0130L\u0130MLER G\u0130DEREK KALICI HALE GELECEK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir\u00e7ok yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. Tedarik g\u00fcvenli\u011fi \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. \u00dclkeler bir\u00e7ok kritik \u00fcr\u00fcnde ve girdide yurt i\u00e7inden tedariki \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve bu nedenle yeni kapasite yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Temass\u0131z ekonomi e\u011filimi dijitalle\u015fmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Salg\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli etkisi ise k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lma ve yeniden yap\u0131lanman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 oldu. Bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde mevcut tedarik zincirleri bozuldu. Yak\u0131ndan tedarik \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye, bu yeni e\u011filimlerden b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olumlu etkilendi. Bu e\u011filimlerin 2022\u2019de kuvvetlenerek s\u00fcrmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi bekleniyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>2. EMT\u0130A, ENERJ\u0130 VE NAVLUN F\u0130YATLARI YILIN \u0130LK B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dcNDE Y\u00dcKSEK KALACAK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Y\u00fcksek navlun fiyatlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da s\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fiyatlardaki normalle\u015fme 2022\u2019nin ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren ba\u015flayacak. Ancak fiyatlarda kademeli ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler bekleniyor. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesi fiyatlar\u0131n yine \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nacak. Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enerji yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlerdeki \u00fcretimi ve ticareti de etkileyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Enerji ve emtia ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkeler, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ile artan gelirlere sahip olacak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu \u00fclkelerde talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun da k\u00fcresel ticareti destekleyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>3. K\u00dcRESEL ENFLASYON KOLAY D\u00dc\u015eMEYECEK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131, bu da enflasyon olu\u015fturdu. ABD ve AB ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde y\u00fcksek t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici enflasyonlar\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 6.8 ile en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yine Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ekim ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 4.9 oldu. \u00dcretici enflasyonu ise y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 seviyelerini de a\u015ft\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de enflasyonda art\u0131\u015flar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>4. PARASAL GEN\u0130\u015eLEMELER SONA ERMEYE BA\u015eLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 da ana belirleyicilerden biri olacak. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 uygulamaya konulan parasal geni\u015fleme programlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna geliniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede merkez bankalar\u0131 geni\u015fletici para politikalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f stratejilerini belirleyecek ve uygulayacak. \u0130lk olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, 2022\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda parasal geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirmi\u015f olacak. 2022\u2019de ba\u015fta Fed olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 politika faizlerini art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak. Avrupa ve Japonya muhtemelen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmayacak. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ise artan enflasyon ve Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye devam edecek. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>5. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 VE T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE Y\u00dcKSEK B\u00dcY\u00dcMELER S\u00dcRECEK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. 2021\u2019deki y\u00fczde 5.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler, 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.<\/span><br> <br><span class=\"large\"> 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri ABD i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.2, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019t\u00fcr. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 5.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Asya \u00fclkelerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019t\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019de y\u00fczde 5.6, Hindistan\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 8.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmin ediliyor. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin ise 2022\u2019de miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.7 geni\u015fleme g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. De\u011fer olarak da y\u00fczde 6.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. 2022\u2019de daha \u00e7ok ticarete konu olan nihai mallar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 2022\u2019de 21.5 trilyon dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2022\u2019de salg\u0131n engel olmazsa d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ve normalle\u015fmeler yeni e\u011filimler ile beraber s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisi-2022-yili-beklentileri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentileri","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1087,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":30174,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":30075,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken yeni bir y\u0131la haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. Geleneksel oldu\u011fu \u00fczere y\u0131l\u0131n son yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentilerimizi payla\u015fal\u0131m. Beklentilerimizde ana varsay\u0131m, hem d\u00fcnyada hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de salg\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131, a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve kapatmalar olmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklindedir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>1. PANDEM\u0130 SONRASI YA\u015eANAN E\u011e\u0130L\u0130MLER G\u0130DEREK KALICI HALE GELECEK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir\u00e7ok yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. Tedarik g\u00fcvenli\u011fi \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. \u00dclkeler bir\u00e7ok kritik \u00fcr\u00fcnde ve girdide yurt i\u00e7inden tedariki \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve bu nedenle yeni kapasite yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Temass\u0131z ekonomi e\u011filimi dijitalle\u015fmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Salg\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli etkisi ise k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lma ve yeniden yap\u0131lanman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 oldu. Bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde mevcut tedarik zincirleri bozuldu. Yak\u0131ndan tedarik \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye, bu yeni e\u011filimlerden b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olumlu etkilendi. Bu e\u011filimlerin 2022\u2019de kuvvetlenerek s\u00fcrmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi bekleniyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>2. EMT\u0130A, ENERJ\u0130 VE NAVLUN F\u0130YATLARI YILIN \u0130LK B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dcNDE Y\u00dcKSEK KALACAK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Y\u00fcksek navlun fiyatlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da s\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fiyatlardaki normalle\u015fme 2022\u2019nin ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren ba\u015flayacak. Ancak fiyatlarda kademeli ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler bekleniyor. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesi fiyatlar\u0131n yine \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nacak. Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enerji yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlerdeki \u00fcretimi ve ticareti de etkileyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Enerji ve emtia ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkeler, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ile artan gelirlere sahip olacak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu \u00fclkelerde talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun da k\u00fcresel ticareti destekleyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>3. K\u00dcRESEL ENFLASYON KOLAY D\u00dc\u015eMEYECEK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131, bu da enflasyon olu\u015fturdu. ABD ve AB ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde y\u00fcksek t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici enflasyonlar\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 6.8 ile en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yine Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ekim ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 4.9 oldu. \u00dcretici enflasyonu ise y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 seviyelerini de a\u015ft\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de enflasyonda art\u0131\u015flar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>4. PARASAL GEN\u0130\u015eLEMELER SONA ERMEYE BA\u015eLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 da ana belirleyicilerden biri olacak. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 uygulamaya konulan parasal geni\u015fleme programlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna geliniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede merkez bankalar\u0131 geni\u015fletici para politikalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f stratejilerini belirleyecek ve uygulayacak. \u0130lk olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, 2022\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda parasal geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirmi\u015f olacak. 2022\u2019de ba\u015fta Fed olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 politika faizlerini art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak. Avrupa ve Japonya muhtemelen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmayacak. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ise artan enflasyon ve Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye devam edecek. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>5. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 VE T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE Y\u00dcKSEK B\u00dcY\u00dcMELER S\u00dcRECEK<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. 2021\u2019deki y\u00fczde 5.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler, 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.<\/span><br> <br><span class=\"large\"> 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri ABD i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.2, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019t\u00fcr. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 5.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Asya \u00fclkelerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019t\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019de y\u00fczde 5.6, Hindistan\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 8.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmin ediliyor. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin ise 2022\u2019de miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.7 geni\u015fleme g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. De\u011fer olarak da y\u00fczde 6.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. 2022\u2019de daha \u00e7ok ticarete konu olan nihai mallar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 2022\u2019de 21.5 trilyon dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2022\u2019de salg\u0131n engel olmazsa d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ve normalle\u015fmeler yeni e\u011filimler ile beraber s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisi-2022-yili-beklentileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentileri","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1087,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}