{"status":true,"post":{"id":13952,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:33:01","created_at":"2016-06-12T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:33:01.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13952,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden endi\u015feli","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirmelerinden bir hafta sonra, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da \u201cK\u00fcresel Ekonomik Beklentiler Raporu\u201d ile kendi de\u011ferlendirmelerini payla\u015ft\u0131. Raporda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011ferlendirmelerden birisi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131nca y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen verimsiz parasal geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n, artan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r borcunun, jeopolitik ve siyasi belirsizliklerin de bulundu\u011fu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin art\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Bu risklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

Raporda; D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden ayr\u0131l\u0131p ayr\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek olan ve 23 Haziran\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek halk referandumunun da Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in bir risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu belirterek, 2016 ve 2017\u2019de B\u00f6lge\u2019nin y\u00fczde 1.6 ve 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini ifade etmi\u015f. Y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin de yava\u015flamaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edilmi\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu durumda, 2015\u2019de y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek ve bu y\u0131l da y\u00fczde 4 ve \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00fczerinde kalma m\u00fccadelesi verdi\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/span><\/p>

Bununla birlikte, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131; raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 ve 2017 y\u0131llar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmemi\u015f. Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 ve 2017 y\u0131llar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc, T\u00fcrk Ekonomi Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 1 puan alt\u0131nda. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, di\u011fer taraftan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2018\u2019e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini ise y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltmi\u015f. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jim Yong Kim, rapora ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, yoksullu\u011fun azalt\u0131lmas\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli etken oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

1. \u00c7eyrek tahminim y\u00fczde 5.44-5.60<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Nisan ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, revize edilen ocak-mart d\u00f6nemi sanayi \u00fcretim verileri (takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m 1. \u00c7eyrek B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, y\u00fczde 5.44 ile 5.60 aras\u0131nda bir 1. \u00c7eyrek GSYH Reel B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 9 May\u0131s Pazartesi payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminim y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131k ile, 5.44-5.46 idi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 5.56-5.60 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilleniyor. Yani, nokta vuru\u015f ya y\u00fczde 5.45 veya 5.58. olas\u0131 en k\u00f6t\u00fc 1. \u00c7eyrek GSYH Reel B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4.4 olarak \u015fekilleniyor. Esasen, ekonomistlerin \u00e7o\u011funun b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.4 civar\u0131nda. Benim tahminim 1 puan yukar\u0131da kal\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Nisan ay\u0131ndaki sanayi \u00fcretim de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131n\u0131n, may\u0131s ve haziran aylar\u0131nda da tekrarlanmas\u0131 halinde, 2014\u2019\u00fcn 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yanaki en k\u00f6t\u00fc GSYH reel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini g\u00f6rebiliriz. <\/span><\/p>

8 Temmuz\u2019da gelecek olan may\u0131s ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi, 2. \u00e7eyrek ile ilgili bize gereken ipucunu verecek.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dcRK HALKI \u2018\u015e\u0130MD\u0130L\u0130K\u2019 T\u00dcKET\u0130M\u0130 KISMIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Nisan ay\u0131 itibariyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki otomotiv sat\u0131\u015f rakamlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, i\u00e7inde enflasyonu bar\u0131nd\u0131ran cari fiyatlarla otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.5 daralm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan sabit fiyatlarla hesap edilmi\u015f otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise sadece y\u00fczde 0.1 artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, piyasadaki keyifsizli\u011fi ve bilhassa hane halk\u0131n\u0131n toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Nitekim konu\u015ftu\u011fumuz t\u00fcm taksi \u015fof\u00f6rleri, m\u00fc\u015fteri say\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir yava\u015flama oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bilgisayar, kitap ve ileti\u015fim ayg\u0131tlar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda da hem ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n nisan ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, hem de bu y\u0131l\u0131n mart ay\u0131na, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re daralma s\u00f6z konusu. Tekstil, giyim, ayakkab\u0131 ve bilhassa elektrikli e\u015fya ile mobilya alan\u0131ndaki perakende ticaret durumu en iyi olan ticaret kesimi gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Piyasadaki genel keyifsizli\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda, perakende ticaretteki sat\u0131\u015f rakamlar\u0131na yans\u0131y\u0131p yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat etmek gerekecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-bankasi-kuresel-buyumeden-endiseli","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden endi\u015feli","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":99,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":14051,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13952,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden endi\u015feli","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirmelerinden bir hafta sonra, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da \u201cK\u00fcresel Ekonomik Beklentiler Raporu\u201d ile kendi de\u011ferlendirmelerini payla\u015ft\u0131. Raporda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011ferlendirmelerden birisi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131nca y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen verimsiz parasal geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n, artan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r borcunun, jeopolitik ve siyasi belirsizliklerin de bulundu\u011fu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin art\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Bu risklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

Raporda; D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden ayr\u0131l\u0131p ayr\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek olan ve 23 Haziran\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek halk referandumunun da Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in bir risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu belirterek, 2016 ve 2017\u2019de B\u00f6lge\u2019nin y\u00fczde 1.6 ve 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekledi\u011fini ifade etmi\u015f. Y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin de yava\u015flamaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edilmi\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu durumda, 2015\u2019de y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek ve bu y\u0131l da y\u00fczde 4 ve \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00fczerinde kalma m\u00fccadelesi verdi\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/span><\/p>

Bununla birlikte, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131; raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 ve 2017 y\u0131llar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmemi\u015f. Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 ve 2017 y\u0131llar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc, T\u00fcrk Ekonomi Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 1 puan alt\u0131nda. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, di\u011fer taraftan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2018\u2019e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini ise y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltmi\u015f. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jim Yong Kim, rapora ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, yoksullu\u011fun azalt\u0131lmas\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli etken oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

1. \u00c7eyrek tahminim y\u00fczde 5.44-5.60<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Nisan ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, revize edilen ocak-mart d\u00f6nemi sanayi \u00fcretim verileri (takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m 1. \u00c7eyrek B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, y\u00fczde 5.44 ile 5.60 aras\u0131nda bir 1. \u00c7eyrek GSYH Reel B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 9 May\u0131s Pazartesi payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminim y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131k ile, 5.44-5.46 idi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 5.56-5.60 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilleniyor. Yani, nokta vuru\u015f ya y\u00fczde 5.45 veya 5.58. olas\u0131 en k\u00f6t\u00fc 1. \u00c7eyrek GSYH Reel B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4.4 olarak \u015fekilleniyor. Esasen, ekonomistlerin \u00e7o\u011funun b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.4 civar\u0131nda. Benim tahminim 1 puan yukar\u0131da kal\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Nisan ay\u0131ndaki sanayi \u00fcretim de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131n\u0131n, may\u0131s ve haziran aylar\u0131nda da tekrarlanmas\u0131 halinde, 2014\u2019\u00fcn 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yanaki en k\u00f6t\u00fc GSYH reel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini g\u00f6rebiliriz. <\/span><\/p>

8 Temmuz\u2019da gelecek olan may\u0131s ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi, 2. \u00e7eyrek ile ilgili bize gereken ipucunu verecek.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dcRK HALKI \u2018\u015e\u0130MD\u0130L\u0130K\u2019 T\u00dcKET\u0130M\u0130 KISMIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Nisan ay\u0131 itibariyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki otomotiv sat\u0131\u015f rakamlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, i\u00e7inde enflasyonu bar\u0131nd\u0131ran cari fiyatlarla otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.5 daralm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan sabit fiyatlarla hesap edilmi\u015f otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise sadece y\u00fczde 0.1 artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, piyasadaki keyifsizli\u011fi ve bilhassa hane halk\u0131n\u0131n toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Nitekim konu\u015ftu\u011fumuz t\u00fcm taksi \u015fof\u00f6rleri, m\u00fc\u015fteri say\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir yava\u015flama oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bilgisayar, kitap ve ileti\u015fim ayg\u0131tlar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda da hem ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n nisan ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, hem de bu y\u0131l\u0131n mart ay\u0131na, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re daralma s\u00f6z konusu. Tekstil, giyim, ayakkab\u0131 ve bilhassa elektrikli e\u015fya ile mobilya alan\u0131ndaki perakende ticaret durumu en iyi olan ticaret kesimi gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Piyasadaki genel keyifsizli\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda, perakende ticaretteki sat\u0131\u015f rakamlar\u0131na yans\u0131y\u0131p yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat etmek gerekecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-bankasi-kuresel-buyumeden-endiseli","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden endi\u015feli","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":99,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}