{"status":true,"post":{"id":28937,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:52:06","created_at":"2021-10-14T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:52:06.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":28937,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00f6viz kurundaki hareket reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkiliyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son zamanlarda kurdaki hareketlilik nedeniyle d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi konusunu incelemek istedik. Bu nedenle TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan \u2018Finansal Kesim D\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Firmalar\u0131n D\u00f6viz Varl\u0131k ve Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri\u2019 tablosunu sizler i\u00e7in inceledik.<\/span>
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Tabloya g\u00f6re, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 2008 Aral\u0131k ile 2021 Temmuz d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 71 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. Bu art\u0131\u015fta en ilgimizi \u00e7eken husus, mevduat yeri de\u011fi\u015fimidir. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6nem i\u00e7erisinde mevduat varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 64 artarken s\u00f6z konusu mevduat\u0131 tuttuklar\u0131 yerde ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00f6z konusu olmu\u015f. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bankalarda tuttuklar\u0131 mevduat y\u00fczde 47 oran\u0131nda azalarak <\/span>33 milyar 109 milyon dolardan 17 milyar 660 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015ferken, yurt i\u00e7i bankalarda tuttuklar\u0131 mevduat y\u00fczde 199 artarak 27 milyar 261 milyon dolardan 81 milyar 378 milyon dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Bu geli\u015fme, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yurt i\u00e7i sisteme g\u00fcvenini g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6nemli. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
MENKUL KIYMET VARLI\u011eI<\/strong><\/span>
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Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn menkul k\u0131ymet varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 62 oran\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Burada y\u00fczde 790 oran\u0131nda artan yurt i\u00e7inde ihra\u00e7 edilen menkul k\u0131ymetler geli\u015fimi de ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde yurt i\u00e7i sisteme olan g\u00fcveni g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerindeki geli\u015fimine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; 2008 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re 2021 Temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin y\u00fczde 84 artarak 276 milyar 949 milyon dolara geldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00f6ylece y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin varl\u0131klara g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlemi\u015f olduk. B\u00f6yle olmas\u0131 son derece do\u011fal. Bunun sebebini y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131nca daha net g\u00f6rebilece\u011fiz.<\/span>
<\/span>
REEL KES\u0130M\u0130N Y\u00dcK\u00dcML\u00dcL\u00dcKLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span>

Reel kesimin y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinde de\u011fi\u015fimler i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6zellikle yurt i\u00e7i bankalardan sa\u011flanan d\u00f6viz kredilerinin 22 milyar 547 milyon dolardan y\u00fczde 508 art\u0131\u015fla 137 milyar 65 milyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 dikkatimizi \u00e7ekti. Bu krediler i\u00e7erisinde ise uzun vadeli kredilerin art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1480 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Yani uzun vadeli d\u00f6viz kredileri 6 milyar 652 milyon dolardan 105 milyar 109 milyon dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. <\/span>
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G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere reel sekt\u00f6r hem varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yurt i\u00e7erisine \u00e7ekmi\u015f, hem de uzun vadeli d\u00f6viz kredilerinde yurt i\u00e7i bankalar\u0131 tercih etmi\u015f. <\/span>
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Banka d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansal kurulu\u015flardan sa\u011flanan fonlar s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 39 azalm\u0131\u015f. <\/span>
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Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan krediler ise s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde sadece y\u00fczde 19 oran\u0131nda artarak 104 milyar 59 milyon dolara gelirken vadesi 1 y\u0131ldan fazla olan kredilerde art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 52 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Kredilerin y\u00fczde 90 civar\u0131 da uzun vadeli. Vadesi 1 y\u0131ldan az olan kredilerde ise y\u00fczde 56 daralma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn nakit dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece iyi bir durum. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
D\u00d6V\u0130Z POZ\u0130SYONU<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
B\u00fct\u00fcn bu verilerin \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonu 2008 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan 2021 Temmuz ay\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 102 oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermi\u015f, 62 milyar 871 milyon dolardan -126 milyar 710 milyon dolara gelmi\u015f.<\/span>
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Bunun sebebi, varl\u0131klarda mevcut durum bulunmaktayken, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler sayesinde gelecekte hedeflenen varl\u0131k giri\u015fi hesaplamada bulunmuyor. S\u00f6z konusu uzun vadeli krediler yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve gelecekteki \u00fcretim ve ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
Bu durumda toplam bilan\u00e7o baz\u0131nda, d\u00f6vizdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f kur fark\u0131 zarar\u0131na neden olurken, fiili bir zarar s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Bunun yan\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da tedbirini alarak k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyonunu y\u00fczde 398 art\u0131rarak, 11 milyar 575 milyon dolardan 57 milyar 587 milyon dolar fazlaya y\u00fckseltmi\u015f.<\/span>
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Bu veriler, k\u0131sa vadede d\u00f6viz y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin reel sekt\u00f6re zarar vermedi\u011fini, uzun vadeli fonlaman\u0131n ise gelecekte kazan\u0131lacak d\u00f6vizlerle \u00f6denecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle herhangi bir kur riskinin s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"doviz-kurundaki-hareket-reel-sektoru-nasil-etkiliyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00f6viz kurundaki hareket reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkiliyor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1082,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":29036,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":28937,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00f6viz kurundaki hareket reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkiliyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son zamanlarda kurdaki hareketlilik nedeniyle d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi konusunu incelemek istedik. Bu nedenle TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan \u2018Finansal Kesim D\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Firmalar\u0131n D\u00f6viz Varl\u0131k ve Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri\u2019 tablosunu sizler i\u00e7in inceledik.<\/span>
<\/span>
Tabloya g\u00f6re, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 2008 Aral\u0131k ile 2021 Temmuz d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 71 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. Bu art\u0131\u015fta en ilgimizi \u00e7eken husus, mevduat yeri de\u011fi\u015fimidir. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6nem i\u00e7erisinde mevduat varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 64 artarken s\u00f6z konusu mevduat\u0131 tuttuklar\u0131 yerde ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00f6z konusu olmu\u015f. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bankalarda tuttuklar\u0131 mevduat y\u00fczde 47 oran\u0131nda azalarak <\/span>33 milyar 109 milyon dolardan 17 milyar 660 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015ferken, yurt i\u00e7i bankalarda tuttuklar\u0131 mevduat y\u00fczde 199 artarak 27 milyar 261 milyon dolardan 81 milyar 378 milyon dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Bu geli\u015fme, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yurt i\u00e7i sisteme g\u00fcvenini g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6nemli. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
MENKUL KIYMET VARLI\u011eI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn menkul k\u0131ymet varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 62 oran\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Burada y\u00fczde 790 oran\u0131nda artan yurt i\u00e7inde ihra\u00e7 edilen menkul k\u0131ymetler geli\u015fimi de ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde yurt i\u00e7i sisteme olan g\u00fcveni g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerindeki geli\u015fimine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; 2008 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re 2021 Temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin y\u00fczde 84 artarak 276 milyar 949 milyon dolara geldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00f6ylece y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin varl\u0131klara g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlemi\u015f olduk. B\u00f6yle olmas\u0131 son derece do\u011fal. Bunun sebebini y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131nca daha net g\u00f6rebilece\u011fiz.<\/span>
<\/span>
REEL KES\u0130M\u0130N Y\u00dcK\u00dcML\u00dcL\u00dcKLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span>

Reel kesimin y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinde de\u011fi\u015fimler i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6zellikle yurt i\u00e7i bankalardan sa\u011flanan d\u00f6viz kredilerinin 22 milyar 547 milyon dolardan y\u00fczde 508 art\u0131\u015fla 137 milyar 65 milyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 dikkatimizi \u00e7ekti. Bu krediler i\u00e7erisinde ise uzun vadeli kredilerin art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1480 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Yani uzun vadeli d\u00f6viz kredileri 6 milyar 652 milyon dolardan 105 milyar 109 milyon dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. <\/span>
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G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere reel sekt\u00f6r hem varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yurt i\u00e7erisine \u00e7ekmi\u015f, hem de uzun vadeli d\u00f6viz kredilerinde yurt i\u00e7i bankalar\u0131 tercih etmi\u015f. <\/span>
<\/span>
Banka d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansal kurulu\u015flardan sa\u011flanan fonlar s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 39 azalm\u0131\u015f. <\/span>
<\/span>
Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan krediler ise s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde sadece y\u00fczde 19 oran\u0131nda artarak 104 milyar 59 milyon dolara gelirken vadesi 1 y\u0131ldan fazla olan kredilerde art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 52 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Kredilerin y\u00fczde 90 civar\u0131 da uzun vadeli. Vadesi 1 y\u0131ldan az olan kredilerde ise y\u00fczde 56 daralma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn nakit dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece iyi bir durum. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
D\u00d6V\u0130Z POZ\u0130SYONU<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
B\u00fct\u00fcn bu verilerin \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonu 2008 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan 2021 Temmuz ay\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 102 oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermi\u015f, 62 milyar 871 milyon dolardan -126 milyar 710 milyon dolara gelmi\u015f.<\/span>
<\/span>
Bunun sebebi, varl\u0131klarda mevcut durum bulunmaktayken, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler sayesinde gelecekte hedeflenen varl\u0131k giri\u015fi hesaplamada bulunmuyor. S\u00f6z konusu uzun vadeli krediler yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve gelecekteki \u00fcretim ve ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
Bu durumda toplam bilan\u00e7o baz\u0131nda, d\u00f6vizdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f kur fark\u0131 zarar\u0131na neden olurken, fiili bir zarar s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Bunun yan\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da tedbirini alarak k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyonunu y\u00fczde 398 art\u0131rarak, 11 milyar 575 milyon dolardan 57 milyar 587 milyon dolar fazlaya y\u00fckseltmi\u015f.<\/span>
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Bu veriler, k\u0131sa vadede d\u00f6viz y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin reel sekt\u00f6re zarar vermedi\u011fini, uzun vadeli fonlaman\u0131n ise gelecekte kazan\u0131lacak d\u00f6vizlerle \u00f6denecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle herhangi bir kur riskinin s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"doviz-kurundaki-hareket-reel-sektoru-nasil-etkiliyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00f6viz kurundaki hareket reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkiliyor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1082,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}