{"status":true,"post":{"id":17108,"user_id":22,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:15:58","created_at":"2017-09-03T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:15:58.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17108,"is_featured":0,"title":"Dolar kuru daha d\u00fc\u015febilir mi?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, en son temmuz sonu itibari ile reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru endekslerini yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu endeksi \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 kategoride takip ediyor. T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 yurti\u00e7i, \u00dcFE bazl\u0131 ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc bazl\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131, T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 endeksi de hem geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler bazl\u0131 hem de geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler bazl\u0131 olarak ayr\u0131ca takip ediyor. Biz de daha ziyade bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 analizini baz alarak de\u011ferlendirme yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru endeksine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; zirve noktalara 2008\u2019in temmuz, a\u011fustos ve eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani o aylarda TL, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 de\u011ferli seyretmi\u015f. Daha sonraki d\u00f6nemlerde de k\u0131smen stabil seyreden kur, 2010 \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan, 2011 may\u0131s ay\u0131na kadar yine de\u011ferli TL \u015feklinde devam etmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131, 2012 ve 2013\u2019te k\u0131smen de\u011ferli olarak devam etse de 2013 temmuz ay\u0131ndan sonra daha ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferine uygun bir seyir izlemi\u015f, ta ki 2016 ekim ay\u0131 sonuna kadar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2016 ve 2017\u2019nin kalan d\u00f6nemindeyse TL, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda genel olarak devaml\u0131 de\u011fer kaybederek ilerlemi\u015f. Bu d\u00f6nemde T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131nda risk primi \u00f6demi\u015f demek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. <\/span><\/p>  <p><strong><span class=\"large\">BUNDAN SONRA NE OLUR?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bundan sonra nas\u0131l bir geli\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce neden d\u00f6viz kuru olmas\u0131 gerekene g\u00f6re yukar\u0131da veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da seyredebiliyor, bunu a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131z gerekir. Burada da d\u00f6viz kurunu belirleyen tek unsurun \u00fclkelerin geli\u015fme seyri, enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik d\u00fczeyleri gibi ekonomik etkenlerin yan\u0131nda, daha ziyade ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkenlerden kaynaklanan ve k\u0131saca \u00fclke risk primi denilen etken ile fiili d\u00f6viz kuru ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131m\u0131zda Euro, dolar paritesi i\u00e7in s\u00f6ylediklerimiz daha etkin bir \u015fekilde dolar-TL kuru bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ge\u00e7erlidir. TL\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemdeki seyri yine risk priminin durumuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00f6yleyecek olursak, b\u00f6lgemizdeki geli\u015fmeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerdeki gidi\u015fat\u0131, i\u00e7eride olabilecek geli\u015fmeler farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde etki olu\u015fturabilecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6viz kurunun bug\u00fcnlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f seyrine bakarak bir \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse; d\u00f6viz kurunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin reel efektif kur endeksi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir miktar daha devam etmesi gerekiyor. Hatta dolar kurunun 3.30\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131na bile gelmesi bu de\u011ferlendirme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Biz bunlar\u0131 kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak halihaz\u0131rdaki b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri ve gidi\u015fat\u0131m\u0131za bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar, TL\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 3.40\u2019lar civar\u0131na gelmesi <\/span><span class=\"large\">s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eu anda gerek uluslararas\u0131 alanda Euro dolar paritesinde Euro\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri ve gerekse d\u00f6viz kurundaki olumlu gidi\u015fat \u00fclke ihracat, istihdam ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sonu\u00e7 verecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dolar-kuru-daha-dusebilir-mi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Dolar kuru daha d\u00fc\u015febilir mi?","meta_description":"Osman Ar\u0131o\u011flu","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":276,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":22,"name":"OSMAN","surname":"ARIO\u011eLU","email":"osman-arioglu@gmail.com","slug":"osman-arioglu","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600PhnV7uz5limxSFX.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:41.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17207,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17108,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Dolar kuru daha d\u00fc\u015febilir mi?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, en son temmuz sonu itibari ile reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru endekslerini yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu endeksi \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 kategoride takip ediyor. T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 yurti\u00e7i, \u00dcFE bazl\u0131 ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc bazl\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131, T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 endeksi de hem geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler bazl\u0131 hem de geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler bazl\u0131 olarak ayr\u0131ca takip ediyor. Biz de daha ziyade bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 analizini baz alarak de\u011ferlendirme yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru endeksine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; zirve noktalara 2008\u2019in temmuz, a\u011fustos ve eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani o aylarda TL, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 de\u011ferli seyretmi\u015f. Daha sonraki d\u00f6nemlerde de k\u0131smen stabil seyreden kur, 2010 \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan, 2011 may\u0131s ay\u0131na kadar yine de\u011ferli TL \u015feklinde devam etmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131, 2012 ve 2013\u2019te k\u0131smen de\u011ferli olarak devam etse de 2013 temmuz ay\u0131ndan sonra daha ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferine uygun bir seyir izlemi\u015f, ta ki 2016 ekim ay\u0131 sonuna kadar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2016 ve 2017\u2019nin kalan d\u00f6nemindeyse TL, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda genel olarak devaml\u0131 de\u011fer kaybederek ilerlemi\u015f. Bu d\u00f6nemde T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131nda risk primi \u00f6demi\u015f demek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. <\/span><\/p>  <p><strong><span class=\"large\">BUNDAN SONRA NE OLUR?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bundan sonra nas\u0131l bir geli\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce neden d\u00f6viz kuru olmas\u0131 gerekene g\u00f6re yukar\u0131da veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da seyredebiliyor, bunu a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131z gerekir. Burada da d\u00f6viz kurunu belirleyen tek unsurun \u00fclkelerin geli\u015fme seyri, enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik d\u00fczeyleri gibi ekonomik etkenlerin yan\u0131nda, daha ziyade ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkenlerden kaynaklanan ve k\u0131saca \u00fclke risk primi denilen etken ile fiili d\u00f6viz kuru ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131m\u0131zda Euro, dolar paritesi i\u00e7in s\u00f6ylediklerimiz daha etkin bir \u015fekilde dolar-TL kuru bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ge\u00e7erlidir. TL\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemdeki seyri yine risk priminin durumuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00f6yleyecek olursak, b\u00f6lgemizdeki geli\u015fmeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerdeki gidi\u015fat\u0131, i\u00e7eride olabilecek geli\u015fmeler farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde etki olu\u015fturabilecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6viz kurunun bug\u00fcnlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f seyrine bakarak bir \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse; d\u00f6viz kurunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin reel efektif kur endeksi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir miktar daha devam etmesi gerekiyor. Hatta dolar kurunun 3.30\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131na bile gelmesi bu de\u011ferlendirme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Biz bunlar\u0131 kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak halihaz\u0131rdaki b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri ve gidi\u015fat\u0131m\u0131za bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar, TL\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 3.40\u2019lar civar\u0131na gelmesi <\/span><span class=\"large\">s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eu anda gerek uluslararas\u0131 alanda Euro dolar paritesinde Euro\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri ve gerekse d\u00f6viz kurundaki olumlu gidi\u015fat \u00fclke ihracat, istihdam ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sonu\u00e7 verecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dolar-kuru-daha-dusebilir-mi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Dolar kuru daha d\u00fc\u015febilir mi?","meta_description":"Osman Ar\u0131o\u011flu","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":276,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}