{"status":true,"post":{"id":38269,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-03-27 08:30:00","created_at":"2023-03-27T05:30:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-03-27T05:30:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":38269,"is_featured":0,"title":"Depremin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde etkileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p id=\"isPasted\" style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style=\"background-color: transparent; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: var(--bs-body-font-weight); letter-spacing: 0.01rem;\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020\u2019deki pandemi salg\u0131n\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fczde 1.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ve \u00e7ok az say\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steren \u00fclkelerden biri oldu. 2021\u2019de ihracat, sanayi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar odakl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ile y\u00fczde 11.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011fland\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n ve k\u00fcresel yava\u015flaman\u0131n etkilerine ra\u011fmen 2022\u2019de de y\u00fczde 5.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2023 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi ile ba\u015fland\u0131. Ancak deprem felaketi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek. Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapor, bu konuda \u00f6nemli veriler ve de\u011ferlendirmeler sunuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. DEPREM B\u0130RKA\u00c7 KANALDAN B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 SINIRLAYACAK \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Deprem felaketi, birka\u00e7 kanaldan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi etkileyecek. Deprem \u00f6ncelikle mevcut \u00fcretim kapasitesi, be\u015feri sermaye, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermaye stoku \u00fczerinde kay\u0131plar yaratt\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 d\u00fczeyini olumsuz etkileyebilecek. Depremin has\u0131la, d\u0131\u015f ticaret, enflasyon, istihdam ve kamu maliyesi \u00fczerinde belirgin olumsuz etkilerinin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130\u015f s\u00fcreklili\u011finin kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermaye kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim kay\u0131plar\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131, arz zincirinin aksamas\u0131 ile perakende ve toptan ticaretin sekteye u\u011framas\u0131yla toplam talebin gerilemesi kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden felaketin k\u0131sa vadeli etkileri s\u00f6z konusu olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. ORTA UZUN VADEDE YEN\u0130DEN \u0130MAR\/\u0130N\u015eA FAAL\u0130YETLER\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DESTEKLEYECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Depremde ya\u015fanan kay\u0131plar\u0131n telafi edilmesi amac\u0131yla yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecinin toplam fakt\u00f6r verimlili\u011fine ve teknolojik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme etkisinin boyutunu hen\u00fcz tam olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmamakla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye olumlu katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 beklenmeli. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te olu\u015fturulacak kaynaklar\u0131n uygunlu\u011funa ve rasyonel tahsislere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinami\u011fi eski rotas\u0131na daha k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00f6nebilecek. Depremden etkilenen 11 ildeki altyap\u0131 tahribat\u0131n\u0131n giderilme h\u0131z\u0131, ilgili illerdeki \u00fcretim, ihracat ve turizm faaliyetlerinin yeniden ba\u015flama s\u00fcresini belirlemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcyle ekonomi genelini de etkileme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. B\u00dcY\u00dcME 1 PUAN DAHA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eEB\u0130L\u0130R\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, depremin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde 1 puanl\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Hesaplanan birinci senaryo kapsam\u0131nda, sermaye stokunda ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 1.3 erime, kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve istihdamda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0.9 oran\u0131nda azalma varsay\u0131m\u0131yla 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin baz senaryodan yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.4 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130kinci senaryo sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re ise birinci senaryodaki kayb\u0131n bir miktar yat\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla telafi edilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n baz senaryoya g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Depremin 20237\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finin ortas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi nedeniyle y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131n en derin etkilerinin, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 boyunca hissedilmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. SANAY\u0130 VE H\u0130ZMETLER SEKT\u00d6RLER\u0130NDE KAYIPLAR OLU\u015eACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki s\u00f6z konusu azalmada sanayi ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6rlerindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede, depremin etkisiyle y\u0131k\u0131lan veya hasar g\u00f6ren fabrika binalar\u0131, \u00fcretim tesisleri ve yollar\u0131n ilk etapta \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisinin olaca\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sanayi katma de\u011ferinin y\u0131l boyunca gerileyece\u011fi (\u00fclke d\u00fczeyinde hedeften sapman\u0131n 1.1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131) tahmin ediliyor. Benzer \u015fekilde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de y\u0131ll\u0131k katma de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f hedefinden sapman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 0.4 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak, mevsimsellikten \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc tar\u0131msal katma de\u011ferde anlaml\u0131 bir sapma beklenmiyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>5. CAR\u0130 \u0130\u015eLEMLER DENGES\u0130NDE \u0130LAVE 5 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR A\u00c7IK OLAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Depremden etkilenen illerin ihracattaki pay\u0131 2022 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 8.5 seviyesindedir. B\u00f6lgede yer alan ihracat\u00e7\u0131\/\u00fcretici firmalar\u0131n \u00fcretim i\u00e7in gerekli makina-te\u00e7hizat ile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla telafi edememesi durumunda ihracat performans\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli azalma olu\u015fabilecek. B\u00f6lgedeki illerin ithalattaki pay\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 6.7 seviyesindedir. Depremin \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerinin ithalat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi olabilecek. \u00d6te yandan, b\u00f6lgenin yeniden imar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fczeyde ithal mal talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiler birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, depremin 2023 d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki yapma ihtimali s\u00f6z konusu. Yine b\u00f6lgede ve \u00fclke genelinde turizm faaliyetlerinde gelir kayb\u0131 ihtimali olas\u0131d\u0131r. Topluca de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde depremin 2023 cari i\u015flemler dengesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir bozulmaya yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z:<\/span><\/strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kay\u0131p ve telafi olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak ortaya koymu\u015f. Bundan sonra insani ve fiziki y\u00f6nleri ile yeniden imar ve in\u015fa faaliyetlerine odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"depremin-ekonomik-buyume-uzerinde-etkileri","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1284,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":38395,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":38269,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Depremin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde etkileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p id=\"isPasted\" style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style=\"background-color: transparent; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: var(--bs-body-font-weight); letter-spacing: 0.01rem;\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020\u2019deki pandemi salg\u0131n\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fczde 1.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ve \u00e7ok az say\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steren \u00fclkelerden biri oldu. 2021\u2019de ihracat, sanayi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar odakl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ile y\u00fczde 11.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011fland\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n ve k\u00fcresel yava\u015flaman\u0131n etkilerine ra\u011fmen 2022\u2019de de y\u00fczde 5.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2023 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi ile ba\u015fland\u0131. Ancak deprem felaketi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek. Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapor, bu konuda \u00f6nemli veriler ve de\u011ferlendirmeler sunuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. DEPREM B\u0130RKA\u00c7 KANALDAN B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 SINIRLAYACAK \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Deprem felaketi, birka\u00e7 kanaldan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi etkileyecek. Deprem \u00f6ncelikle mevcut \u00fcretim kapasitesi, be\u015feri sermaye, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermaye stoku \u00fczerinde kay\u0131plar yaratt\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 d\u00fczeyini olumsuz etkileyebilecek. Depremin has\u0131la, d\u0131\u015f ticaret, enflasyon, istihdam ve kamu maliyesi \u00fczerinde belirgin olumsuz etkilerinin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130\u015f s\u00fcreklili\u011finin kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermaye kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim kay\u0131plar\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131, arz zincirinin aksamas\u0131 ile perakende ve toptan ticaretin sekteye u\u011framas\u0131yla toplam talebin gerilemesi kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden felaketin k\u0131sa vadeli etkileri s\u00f6z konusu olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. ORTA UZUN VADEDE YEN\u0130DEN \u0130MAR\/\u0130N\u015eA FAAL\u0130YETLER\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DESTEKLEYECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Depremde ya\u015fanan kay\u0131plar\u0131n telafi edilmesi amac\u0131yla yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecinin toplam fakt\u00f6r verimlili\u011fine ve teknolojik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme etkisinin boyutunu hen\u00fcz tam olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmamakla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye olumlu katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 beklenmeli. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te olu\u015fturulacak kaynaklar\u0131n uygunlu\u011funa ve rasyonel tahsislere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinami\u011fi eski rotas\u0131na daha k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00f6nebilecek. Depremden etkilenen 11 ildeki altyap\u0131 tahribat\u0131n\u0131n giderilme h\u0131z\u0131, ilgili illerdeki \u00fcretim, ihracat ve turizm faaliyetlerinin yeniden ba\u015flama s\u00fcresini belirlemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcyle ekonomi genelini de etkileme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. B\u00dcY\u00dcME 1 PUAN DAHA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eEB\u0130L\u0130R\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, depremin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde 1 puanl\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Hesaplanan birinci senaryo kapsam\u0131nda, sermaye stokunda ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 1.3 erime, kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve istihdamda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0.9 oran\u0131nda azalma varsay\u0131m\u0131yla 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin baz senaryodan yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.4 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130kinci senaryo sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re ise birinci senaryodaki kayb\u0131n bir miktar yat\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla telafi edilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n baz senaryoya g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Depremin 20237\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finin ortas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi nedeniyle y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131n en derin etkilerinin, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 boyunca hissedilmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. SANAY\u0130 VE H\u0130ZMETLER SEKT\u00d6RLER\u0130NDE KAYIPLAR OLU\u015eACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki s\u00f6z konusu azalmada sanayi ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6rlerindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede, depremin etkisiyle y\u0131k\u0131lan veya hasar g\u00f6ren fabrika binalar\u0131, \u00fcretim tesisleri ve yollar\u0131n ilk etapta \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisinin olaca\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sanayi katma de\u011ferinin y\u0131l boyunca gerileyece\u011fi (\u00fclke d\u00fczeyinde hedeften sapman\u0131n 1.1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131) tahmin ediliyor. Benzer \u015fekilde hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de y\u0131ll\u0131k katma de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f hedefinden sapman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 0.4 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak, mevsimsellikten \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc tar\u0131msal katma de\u011ferde anlaml\u0131 bir sapma beklenmiyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>5. CAR\u0130 \u0130\u015eLEMLER DENGES\u0130NDE \u0130LAVE 5 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR A\u00c7IK OLAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Depremden etkilenen illerin ihracattaki pay\u0131 2022 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 8.5 seviyesindedir. B\u00f6lgede yer alan ihracat\u00e7\u0131\/\u00fcretici firmalar\u0131n \u00fcretim i\u00e7in gerekli makina-te\u00e7hizat ile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla telafi edememesi durumunda ihracat performans\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli azalma olu\u015fabilecek. B\u00f6lgedeki illerin ithalattaki pay\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 6.7 seviyesindedir. Depremin \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerinin ithalat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi olabilecek. \u00d6te yandan, b\u00f6lgenin yeniden imar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fczeyde ithal mal talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiler birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, depremin 2023 d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki yapma ihtimali s\u00f6z konusu. Yine b\u00f6lgede ve \u00fclke genelinde turizm faaliyetlerinde gelir kayb\u0131 ihtimali olas\u0131d\u0131r. Topluca de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde depremin 2023 cari i\u015flemler dengesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir bozulmaya yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z:<\/span><\/strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kay\u0131p ve telafi olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak ortaya koymu\u015f. Bundan sonra insani ve fiziki y\u00f6nleri ile yeniden imar ve in\u015fa faaliyetlerine odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"depremin-ekonomik-buyume-uzerinde-etkileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1284,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}