{"status":true,"post":{"id":34132,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:32:28","created_at":"2022-07-28T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:32:28.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":34132,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin gidi\u015fat\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

FAT\u0130H OKTAY<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu ay\u0131n ortas\u0131nda \u00c7in ekonomisinin ikinci \u00e7eyrek ve ilk yar\u0131y\u0131l verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde de IMF, D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. \u0130kisi de \u00e7ok olumlu geli\u015fmelere i\u015faret etmiyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00fclke ekonomisi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2.6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme hesaplamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nemli olan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise durum daha az k\u00f6t\u00fcyd\u00fc; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 0.4 oldu. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 oldu. Bu rakam fena g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyebilir ama gerek ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131, gerekse \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin koydu\u011fu \u2018y\u00fczde 5.5 dolay\u0131nda\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olumsuz bir durumu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yaln\u0131z \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumsuz bir durum; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc son y\u0131llarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 30 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Eskiden daha \u00e7ok ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olan durum, \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli art\u0131k: \u00c7in ekonomisi hap\u015f\u0131rd\u0131 m\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi hasta oluyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
SIFIR COV\u0130D POL\u0130T\u0130KASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in ekonomisinin t\u00f6kezlemesi, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak daha \u00f6nce ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u0131f\u0131r Covid politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki kapanmalardan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu kapanmalar, pandeminin ba\u015flar\u0131nda, 2020 ba\u015flar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi bir yandan talebi, \u00f6zellikle de hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, bir yandan da \u00fcretimi, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla arz\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor. Bu, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine de hem talep hem arz kanal\u0131ndan yans\u0131yor: Bir yandan \u00c7in\u2019in di\u011fer \u00fclke \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi olumsuz etkileniyor, bir yandan da di\u011fer ekonomilerin \u00c7in\u2019den sa\u011flad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fcretim girdileri ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda aksamalar olabiliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
IMF, normal olarak y\u0131lda iki kez mart ve ekim aylar\u0131nda D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde, ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle bir de ara rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Ara raporda, mart raporundaki d\u00fcnya ve \u00fclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in verilen ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi. Raporda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri farkl\u0131 senaryolar i\u00e7in veriliyor. Ana senaryoda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 0.4 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilerek y\u00fczde 3.2; ABD ekonomisininki y\u00fczde 1.4 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilerek y\u00fczde 2.3; \u00c7in ekonomisininki y\u00fczde 1.1 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilerek y\u00fczde 3.3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131, pandemi nedeniyle zaten zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin, y\u00fckselen enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikalar\u0131, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve \u00c7in ekonomisindeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n etkileriyle a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Raporda, bu etkenlerde olumsuz geli\u015fmeler olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00f6yle bir olumsuz senaryoda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fczeyine d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u00dcZDE 5.5 B\u00dcY\u00dcME HEDEF\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bu durumunda \u00c7in ekonomisi \u00f6zel \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan ayl\u0131k veriler daha fazla umut veriyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Gerek arz gerekse talep taraf\u0131 verileri, nisan ay\u0131nda \u00e7ok olumsuzken, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flay\u0131p haziran ay\u0131nda h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak 2020\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi arz taraf\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlarken talep taraf\u0131 geriden geliyor. May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201833 \u00f6nlem\u2019 paketi, gerek arz gerekse talep taraf\u0131ndaki darbo\u011fazlar\u0131 rahatlatarak toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Ancak \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin ekonomiyi ne kadar h\u0131zland\u0131rmak isteyece\u011fi konusunda belirsizlik var.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130lk yar\u0131y\u0131l verileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in ekonomisinin \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin koydu\u011fu \u2018y\u00fczde 5.5 dolay\u0131nda\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefinin tutturulmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu, ekonominin ikinci yar\u0131da, \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini gerektiriyor. Bu, \u00c7in i\u00e7in olanaks\u0131z de\u011fil, \u00fclke y\u00f6netimi bu konuda \u0131srarc\u0131 olursa, biraz da veri masajlamas\u0131 ile bu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Ancak bu, \u00fclke \u015firketleri ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerinin bor\u00e7 sorununu daha da a\u011f\u0131r hale getirmek yan\u0131nda, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya giderken \u00c7in\u2019in gev\u015femesine ba\u011fl\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sorunlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00dclke y\u00f6netiminin, koydu\u011fu hedeflerin tutmas\u0131na al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f da olsa, bu hedefi yumu\u015fatma, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131y\u0131 belli bir d\u00fczeyde tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"cin-ve-dunya-ekonomilerinin-gidisati","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin gidi\u015fat\u0131","meta_description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1084,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34231,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":34132,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin gidi\u015fat\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

FAT\u0130H OKTAY<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu ay\u0131n ortas\u0131nda \u00c7in ekonomisinin ikinci \u00e7eyrek ve ilk yar\u0131y\u0131l verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde de IMF, D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. \u0130kisi de \u00e7ok olumlu geli\u015fmelere i\u015faret etmiyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00fclke ekonomisi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2.6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme hesaplamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nemli olan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise durum daha az k\u00f6t\u00fcyd\u00fc; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 0.4 oldu. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 oldu. Bu rakam fena g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyebilir ama gerek ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131, gerekse \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin koydu\u011fu \u2018y\u00fczde 5.5 dolay\u0131nda\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olumsuz bir durumu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yaln\u0131z \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumsuz bir durum; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc son y\u0131llarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 30 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Eskiden daha \u00e7ok ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olan durum, \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli art\u0131k: \u00c7in ekonomisi hap\u015f\u0131rd\u0131 m\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi hasta oluyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
SIFIR COV\u0130D POL\u0130T\u0130KASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in ekonomisinin t\u00f6kezlemesi, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak daha \u00f6nce ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u0131f\u0131r Covid politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki kapanmalardan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu kapanmalar, pandeminin ba\u015flar\u0131nda, 2020 ba\u015flar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi bir yandan talebi, \u00f6zellikle de hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, bir yandan da \u00fcretimi, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla arz\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor. Bu, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine de hem talep hem arz kanal\u0131ndan yans\u0131yor: Bir yandan \u00c7in\u2019in di\u011fer \u00fclke \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi olumsuz etkileniyor, bir yandan da di\u011fer ekonomilerin \u00c7in\u2019den sa\u011flad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fcretim girdileri ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda aksamalar olabiliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
IMF, normal olarak y\u0131lda iki kez mart ve ekim aylar\u0131nda D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde, ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle bir de ara rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Ara raporda, mart raporundaki d\u00fcnya ve \u00fclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in verilen ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi. Raporda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri farkl\u0131 senaryolar i\u00e7in veriliyor. Ana senaryoda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 0.4 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilerek y\u00fczde 3.2; ABD ekonomisininki y\u00fczde 1.4 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilerek y\u00fczde 2.3; \u00c7in ekonomisininki y\u00fczde 1.1 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilerek y\u00fczde 3.3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn olumsuzla\u015fmas\u0131, pandemi nedeniyle zaten zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin, y\u00fckselen enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikalar\u0131, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve \u00c7in ekonomisindeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n etkileriyle a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Raporda, bu etkenlerde olumsuz geli\u015fmeler olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00f6yle bir olumsuz senaryoda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fczeyine d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u00dcZDE 5.5 B\u00dcY\u00dcME HEDEF\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bu durumunda \u00c7in ekonomisi \u00f6zel \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan ayl\u0131k veriler daha fazla umut veriyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Gerek arz gerekse talep taraf\u0131 verileri, nisan ay\u0131nda \u00e7ok olumsuzken, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flay\u0131p haziran ay\u0131nda h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak 2020\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi arz taraf\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlarken talep taraf\u0131 geriden geliyor. May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201833 \u00f6nlem\u2019 paketi, gerek arz gerekse talep taraf\u0131ndaki darbo\u011fazlar\u0131 rahatlatarak toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Ancak \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin ekonomiyi ne kadar h\u0131zland\u0131rmak isteyece\u011fi konusunda belirsizlik var.<\/span>
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\u0130lk yar\u0131y\u0131l verileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in ekonomisinin \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin koydu\u011fu \u2018y\u00fczde 5.5 dolay\u0131nda\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefinin tutturulmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu, ekonominin ikinci yar\u0131da, \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini gerektiriyor. Bu, \u00c7in i\u00e7in olanaks\u0131z de\u011fil, \u00fclke y\u00f6netimi bu konuda \u0131srarc\u0131 olursa, biraz da veri masajlamas\u0131 ile bu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Ancak bu, \u00fclke \u015firketleri ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerinin bor\u00e7 sorununu daha da a\u011f\u0131r hale getirmek yan\u0131nda, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya giderken \u00c7in\u2019in gev\u015femesine ba\u011fl\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sorunlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00dclke y\u00f6netiminin, koydu\u011fu hedeflerin tutmas\u0131na al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f da olsa, bu hedefi yumu\u015fatma, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131y\u0131 belli bir d\u00fczeyde tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"cin-ve-dunya-ekonomilerinin-gidisati","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin gidi\u015fat\u0131","meta_description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1084,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}