{"status":true,"post":{"id":12610,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:18:10","created_at":"2015-09-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:18:10.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12610,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u00c7in, ABD\u2019ye \u2018dikkatli ol\u2019 diyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) 22 May\u0131s 2013\u2019teki Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ben Bernanke, \u201cArt\u0131k para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u00f6nem kap\u0131ya dayand\u0131\u201d dedi\u011finden bu yana, k\u00fcresel ve yurti\u00e7i piyasalar neredeyse her g\u00fcn FED\u2019i konu\u015fuyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, FED yetkilileri y\u0131l bitene kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funa dair sinyalleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Sinyaller yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131nca, \u2018FED haziran ay\u0131nda faizi art\u0131racak\u2019 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Euro dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.05 dolar\u0131n dahi alt\u0131na kadar geriledi; petrol ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 adeta \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Ancak, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u2018olmas\u0131 gerekenden daha erken\u2019 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, zaten zar zor toparlanan ABD ekonomisi tekrar \u2018patinaj\u2019a girer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flay\u0131nca, FED\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa beklentisi \u2018eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kayd\u0131. FED yetkilerinin son 15 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr \u2018ser verip, s\u0131r vermeyen\u2019 tutumlar\u0131 nedeniyle eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131na kadar piyasa adrenalinli bir heyecanla toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kan karar\u0131 bekleyecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ancak, ABD finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde olan ve ABD hane halk\u0131n\u0131n orta gelir d\u00fczeyindeki kesimini temsil eden tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z insanlarla olan sohbetlerimiz \u015funu g\u00f6steriyor ki, ABD toplumunun tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nelmi\u015f oldu\u011fu hisse senetleri ve bu hisse senetlerinin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc borsalarda \u2018f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u2019 eserken, hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131 ciddi geriler ve ABD halk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131 veya emeklilik fonlar\u0131ndaki birikimleri eriyor diye ciddi tela\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, FED yetkililerinin \u2018baka baka\u2019 faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 hayli zor. Bu nedenle, ABD borsalar\u0131 ve bu borsalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ABD \u015firketlerinin hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131 toparlanana ve FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131ndan hisse senetlerinin etkilenmeyece\u011fi netlik kazanana kadar ABD orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131, FED\u2019in kolay kolay faiz art\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>K\u00dcRESEL EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 TELA\u015eLANDIRIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">A\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00c7in makro ekonomik verileri, ge\u00e7en hafta \u00c7in H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in ekonomisini desteklemek amac\u0131yla att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalara moral getirmi\u015f olan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n pozitif etkisini adeta s\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Veriler \u00c7in ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edince, \u00c7in borsalar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, ABD borsalar\u0131na kadar uzand\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in imalat sanayi g\u00f6stergeleri, \u00c7in\u2019deki i\u00e7 talep ve ihracat ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge ve son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretiminin son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. FED\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ad\u0131m\u0131 ve hisse senetlerine y\u00f6nelik duyulan endi\u015fe nedeniyle ABD hazine tahvillerine y\u00f6nelik \u2018g\u00fcvenli liman\u2019 alg\u0131s\u0131 ile yo\u011funla\u015fan al\u0131mlar, esasen FED\u2019i de tela\u015fland\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 gereken ABD ekonomisinde, faizlerin cazibesinin artmas\u0131, ABD halk\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmek yerine tasarruf etmeye y\u00f6nlendirir ise ABD ekonomisinin i\u00e7ine girece\u011fi durgunluk, k\u00fcresel ve yerel boyutta i\u015fleri yeniden bozacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in ekonomisiyle ilgili her olumsuz ekonomik veri, \u00c7in\u2019le \u00e7ok ciddi boyutlarda ticaret hacmi olan ABD ekonomisi ile ilgili endi\u015feleri de art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomisini b\u00fcy\u00fctmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye ciddi boyutlarda ihracat yapmaya (ABD d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumunda), ABD\u2019nin de \u00c7in ekonomisi iyi para kazand\u0131k\u00e7a kendi l\u00fcks ve teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 mallar\u0131n\u0131 ve tahvillerini \u00c7in\u2019e satmaya ihtiyac\u0131 var. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PAS\u0130F\u0130K\u2019TE KAPI\u015eMA \u2018F\u0130NANS\u2019TAN BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131, biz bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 kaleme al\u0131rken hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f olan ABD a\u011fustos ay\u0131 istihdam verilerini heyecanla beklerken, istihdam verilerinin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 makro ekonomik verilere bakarak, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan FED\u2019e ve ABD\u2019li yetkililere mesajlar da devam ediyor. Bir \u00f6rnek olarak; \u00c7in i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz g\u00fcnlerde, milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k ABD hazine tahvili satmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en ayki s\u00fcrpriz deval\u00fcasyon karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00c7inli yetkililer \u00c7in \u015firketlerinin hisse senetlerinin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc borsalar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek ad\u0131na, dolar cinsinden yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p yuan alma karar\u0131 ald\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Frans\u0131z finans kurumu Societe Generale\u2019in tahminine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in MB rezerv varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 11 A\u011fustos\u2019tan beri 100 milyar dolar azaltt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in son verilerine g\u00f6re 3.7 trilyon dolarl\u0131k rezerv varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor. ABD finans kurumu Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n makro ve piyasa ara\u015ft\u0131rma e\u015f ba\u015fkan\u0131 Francesco Garzarelli\u2019nin yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re ise \u00c7in ekonomisi yava\u015flarken ve piyasalarda \u00e7alkant\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n paralar\u0131n\u0131 sabit getirili varl\u0131klara park etmesi, \u00c7in\u2019in ABD hazine tahvillerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131 dengeliyor. Garzarelli\u2019ye g\u00f6re, toplamda 11.4 trilyon dolar varl\u0131k tutan \u00c7in ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerindeki azal\u0131\u015f dolar cinsinden tahvilleri uzun vadede olumsuz etkileye-cek. Garzarelli, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n eninde sonunda tahvillerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"cin-abdye-dikkatli-ol-diyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u00c7in, ABD\u2019ye \u2018dikkatli ol\u2019 diyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1089,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12709,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12610,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u00c7in, ABD\u2019ye \u2018dikkatli ol\u2019 diyor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) 22 May\u0131s 2013\u2019teki Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ben Bernanke, \u201cArt\u0131k para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u00f6nem kap\u0131ya dayand\u0131\u201d dedi\u011finden bu yana, k\u00fcresel ve yurti\u00e7i piyasalar neredeyse her g\u00fcn FED\u2019i konu\u015fuyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, FED yetkilileri y\u0131l bitene kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funa dair sinyalleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Sinyaller yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131nca, \u2018FED haziran ay\u0131nda faizi art\u0131racak\u2019 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Euro dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.05 dolar\u0131n dahi alt\u0131na kadar geriledi; petrol ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 adeta \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Ancak, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u2018olmas\u0131 gerekenden daha erken\u2019 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, zaten zar zor toparlanan ABD ekonomisi tekrar \u2018patinaj\u2019a girer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flay\u0131nca, FED\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa beklentisi \u2018eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kayd\u0131. FED yetkilerinin son 15 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr \u2018ser verip, s\u0131r vermeyen\u2019 tutumlar\u0131 nedeniyle eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131na kadar piyasa adrenalinli bir heyecanla toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kan karar\u0131 bekleyecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ancak, ABD finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde olan ve ABD hane halk\u0131n\u0131n orta gelir d\u00fczeyindeki kesimini temsil eden tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z insanlarla olan sohbetlerimiz \u015funu g\u00f6steriyor ki, ABD toplumunun tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nelmi\u015f oldu\u011fu hisse senetleri ve bu hisse senetlerinin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc borsalarda \u2018f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u2019 eserken, hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131 ciddi geriler ve ABD halk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131 veya emeklilik fonlar\u0131ndaki birikimleri eriyor diye ciddi tela\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, FED yetkililerinin \u2018baka baka\u2019 faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 hayli zor. Bu nedenle, ABD borsalar\u0131 ve bu borsalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ABD \u015firketlerinin hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131 toparlanana ve FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131ndan hisse senetlerinin etkilenmeyece\u011fi netlik kazanana kadar ABD orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131, FED\u2019in kolay kolay faiz art\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>K\u00dcRESEL EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 TELA\u015eLANDIRIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">A\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00c7in makro ekonomik verileri, ge\u00e7en hafta \u00c7in H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in ekonomisini desteklemek amac\u0131yla att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalara moral getirmi\u015f olan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n pozitif etkisini adeta s\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Veriler \u00c7in ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edince, \u00c7in borsalar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, ABD borsalar\u0131na kadar uzand\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in imalat sanayi g\u00f6stergeleri, \u00c7in\u2019deki i\u00e7 talep ve ihracat ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge ve son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretiminin son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. FED\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ad\u0131m\u0131 ve hisse senetlerine y\u00f6nelik duyulan endi\u015fe nedeniyle ABD hazine tahvillerine y\u00f6nelik \u2018g\u00fcvenli liman\u2019 alg\u0131s\u0131 ile yo\u011funla\u015fan al\u0131mlar, esasen FED\u2019i de tela\u015fland\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 gereken ABD ekonomisinde, faizlerin cazibesinin artmas\u0131, ABD halk\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmek yerine tasarruf etmeye y\u00f6nlendirir ise ABD ekonomisinin i\u00e7ine girece\u011fi durgunluk, k\u00fcresel ve yerel boyutta i\u015fleri yeniden bozacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in ekonomisiyle ilgili her olumsuz ekonomik veri, \u00c7in\u2019le \u00e7ok ciddi boyutlarda ticaret hacmi olan ABD ekonomisi ile ilgili endi\u015feleri de art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomisini b\u00fcy\u00fctmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye ciddi boyutlarda ihracat yapmaya (ABD d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumunda), ABD\u2019nin de \u00c7in ekonomisi iyi para kazand\u0131k\u00e7a kendi l\u00fcks ve teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 mallar\u0131n\u0131 ve tahvillerini \u00c7in\u2019e satmaya ihtiyac\u0131 var. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PAS\u0130F\u0130K\u2019TE KAPI\u015eMA \u2018F\u0130NANS\u2019TAN BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131, biz bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 kaleme al\u0131rken hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f olan ABD a\u011fustos ay\u0131 istihdam verilerini heyecanla beklerken, istihdam verilerinin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 makro ekonomik verilere bakarak, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan FED\u2019e ve ABD\u2019li yetkililere mesajlar da devam ediyor. Bir \u00f6rnek olarak; \u00c7in i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz g\u00fcnlerde, milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k ABD hazine tahvili satmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en ayki s\u00fcrpriz deval\u00fcasyon karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00c7inli yetkililer \u00c7in \u015firketlerinin hisse senetlerinin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc borsalar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek ad\u0131na, dolar cinsinden yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p yuan alma karar\u0131 ald\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Frans\u0131z finans kurumu Societe Generale\u2019in tahminine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in MB rezerv varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 11 A\u011fustos\u2019tan beri 100 milyar dolar azaltt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in son verilerine g\u00f6re 3.7 trilyon dolarl\u0131k rezerv varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor. ABD finans kurumu Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n makro ve piyasa ara\u015ft\u0131rma e\u015f ba\u015fkan\u0131 Francesco Garzarelli\u2019nin yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re ise \u00c7in ekonomisi yava\u015flarken ve piyasalarda \u00e7alkant\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n paralar\u0131n\u0131 sabit getirili varl\u0131klara park etmesi, \u00c7in\u2019in ABD hazine tahvillerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131 dengeliyor. Garzarelli\u2019ye g\u00f6re, toplamda 11.4 trilyon dolar varl\u0131k tutan \u00c7in ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerindeki azal\u0131\u015f dolar cinsinden tahvilleri uzun vadede olumsuz etkileye-cek. Garzarelli, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n eninde sonunda tahvillerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"cin-abdye-dikkatli-ol-diyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u00c7in, ABD\u2019ye \u2018dikkatli ol\u2019 diyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1089,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}