{"status":true,"post":{"id":21148,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:04:19","created_at":"2019-11-28T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:04:19.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21148,"is_featured":0,"title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin sinyaller g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.3 ile 0.8 aras\u0131nda pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapataca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. \u0130stisnas\u0131z, Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019ndan (IMF) Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne (OECD), uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131ndan derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131na, t\u00fcm kurumlar 2019 beklentilerini, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapataca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak revize ettiler. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verileri ve reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi ile t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi verileri, pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

G\u00dcVEN ENDEKS\u0130NDE POZ\u0130T\u0130F ARTI\u015eLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan g\u00fcven endeksi verilerinde, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde pozitif art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6zlenirken, bilhassa imalat sanayindeki firmalar\u0131n genel gidi\u015fata y\u00f6nelik olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin endeksin de\u011ferini ekim ay\u0131ndaki 95.9 puandan 102.1 puana ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Bilhassa son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda gelen sipari\u015flerdeki toparlanman\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 memnuniyetle, toplam sipari\u015f endeksinin <\/span>eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki 90.8 puan seviyesinden, ekim ay\u0131nda 103.3; esas, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 108.2 puan d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00fcretime ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik pozitif sinyalleri per\u00e7inliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015eS\u0130ZL\u0130\u011e\u0130 AZALTACAK HAREKETLENME<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan bu yana, gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya y\u00f6nelik \u00fcretim hacmi beklentisini de 108-109 puan d\u00fczeyinde tutarak, sadece 2019\u2019un \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin \u00fcretim ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiyi de iyile\u015ftiriyor. Nitekim kas\u0131m ay\u0131 kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verisi de bu tabloyu teyit edecek \u015fekilde geldi. \u0130malat sanayinin son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r, gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya y\u00f6nelik istihdam\u0131n\u0131 korumaya y\u00f6nelik olarak da pozitif bir duru\u015f sergiledi\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor. Bu nedenle, ekonomide i\u00e7 talebin toparlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, i\u015fsizli\u011fi azaltacak bir hareketlenme 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilkbahar ortas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6zlenecektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7 talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131nda da hane halk\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ve kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n, yeni makina ve tesis harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bu noktada, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 itibariyle yeni makina, yeni tesis yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filiminin 100.6 puan d\u00fczeyindeyken, kas\u0131m ay\u0131 itibariyle 106.3 puana y\u00fckselmesi; yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 anlam\u0131nda \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>

D\u0131\u015f talepte ise net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 boyutunda, imalat sanayi kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna g\u00f6re, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya y\u00f6nelik ihracat sipari\u015fi beklentisi 108.9 puan ile pozitif seviyesini koruyor. T\u00fcm bu tablo, 2019\u2019u pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapatman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 2020\u2019de de temposunu art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bir piyasa ortam\u0131nda girece\u011fimize ve 2020 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin de y\u00fczde 3.5 ve \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131na <\/span>i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

BO\u011eAZ\u0130\u00c7\u0130\u2019NDE \u2018ZEITGEIST\u2019<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel \u015fartlar\u0131n geldi\u011fi nokta, insano\u011flunun daha fazla dayan\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7erisinde, birbirine empati duyarak, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki \u2018kimi\u2019 karar vericilerin de\u011fil, kendi \u00f6ncelikli ajandas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturarak hareket etmesini gerektiriyor.<\/span><\/p>

10. Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i Zirvesi de, bu temel ger\u00e7ekten hareket ile \u2018Yeni D\u00fcnya D\u00fczenine Do\u011fru\u2019 ana temas\u0131yla, 90\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan \u00fclkeden y\u00fczlerce k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel kanaat \u00f6nderini, 3 bin se\u00e7kin kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 ile bir araya getirdi.<\/span><\/p>

KKTC Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Ersin Tatar, Almanya eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Wullf, Kolombiya eski Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Pastrana, \u0130spanya eski Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Zapatero ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin \u00fcst d\u00fczey siyaset\u00e7ilerinin, bakan, b\u00fcrokrat ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 temsilcilerinin de aralar\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7kin bir kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 grubu, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn boyunca \u00e7ok say\u0131da yuvarlak masa toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve panelde bir araya geldi. Zapatero\u2019nun, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7. Do\u011fu ile Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 bir araya getirme kapasitesi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. T\u00fcrkiye, AB\u2019de olmal\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6zleri <\/span>ses getirdi. Almanya eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Wulff ise d\u00fcnya milli gelirinde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye, Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019e kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Wulff, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu a\u015famada Avrupa, Asya ve Afrika aras\u0131nda k\u00f6pr\u00fc olabilece\u011finin, bunun en ak\u0131ll\u0131ca yol olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i Zirvesi gibi uluslararas\u0131 bir organizasyonla k\u00fcresel sistemin kanaat \u00f6nderlerini bir araya getirebilme kabiliyeti, k\u00fcresel sistemde y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fc de per\u00e7inliyor. Bu t\u00fcr toplant\u0131lar\u0131n yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"buyumeye-iliskin-sinyaller-gucleniyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin sinyaller g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":623,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21247,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21148,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin sinyaller g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.3 ile 0.8 aras\u0131nda pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapataca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. \u0130stisnas\u0131z, Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019ndan (IMF) Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne (OECD), uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131ndan derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131na, t\u00fcm kurumlar 2019 beklentilerini, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapataca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak revize ettiler. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verileri ve reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi ile t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi verileri, pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

G\u00dcVEN ENDEKS\u0130NDE POZ\u0130T\u0130F ARTI\u015eLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan g\u00fcven endeksi verilerinde, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde pozitif art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6zlenirken, bilhassa imalat sanayindeki firmalar\u0131n genel gidi\u015fata y\u00f6nelik olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin endeksin de\u011ferini ekim ay\u0131ndaki 95.9 puandan 102.1 puana ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Bilhassa son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda gelen sipari\u015flerdeki toparlanman\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 memnuniyetle, toplam sipari\u015f endeksinin <\/span>eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki 90.8 puan seviyesinden, ekim ay\u0131nda 103.3; esas, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 108.2 puan d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00fcretime ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik pozitif sinyalleri per\u00e7inliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015eS\u0130ZL\u0130\u011e\u0130 AZALTACAK HAREKETLENME<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan bu yana, gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya y\u00f6nelik \u00fcretim hacmi beklentisini de 108-109 puan d\u00fczeyinde tutarak, sadece 2019\u2019un \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin \u00fcretim ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiyi de iyile\u015ftiriyor. Nitekim kas\u0131m ay\u0131 kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verisi de bu tabloyu teyit edecek \u015fekilde geldi. \u0130malat sanayinin son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r, gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya y\u00f6nelik istihdam\u0131n\u0131 korumaya y\u00f6nelik olarak da pozitif bir duru\u015f sergiledi\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor. Bu nedenle, ekonomide i\u00e7 talebin toparlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, i\u015fsizli\u011fi azaltacak bir hareketlenme 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilkbahar ortas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6zlenecektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7 talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131nda da hane halk\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ve kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n, yeni makina ve tesis harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bu noktada, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 itibariyle yeni makina, yeni tesis yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filiminin 100.6 puan d\u00fczeyindeyken, kas\u0131m ay\u0131 itibariyle 106.3 puana y\u00fckselmesi; yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 anlam\u0131nda \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>

D\u0131\u015f talepte ise net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 boyutunda, imalat sanayi kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna g\u00f6re, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya y\u00f6nelik ihracat sipari\u015fi beklentisi 108.9 puan ile pozitif seviyesini koruyor. T\u00fcm bu tablo, 2019\u2019u pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapatman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 2020\u2019de de temposunu art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bir piyasa ortam\u0131nda girece\u011fimize ve 2020 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin de y\u00fczde 3.5 ve \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131na <\/span>i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

BO\u011eAZ\u0130\u00c7\u0130\u2019NDE \u2018ZEITGEIST\u2019<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel \u015fartlar\u0131n geldi\u011fi nokta, insano\u011flunun daha fazla dayan\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7erisinde, birbirine empati duyarak, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki \u2018kimi\u2019 karar vericilerin de\u011fil, kendi \u00f6ncelikli ajandas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturarak hareket etmesini gerektiriyor.<\/span><\/p>

10. Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i Zirvesi de, bu temel ger\u00e7ekten hareket ile \u2018Yeni D\u00fcnya D\u00fczenine Do\u011fru\u2019 ana temas\u0131yla, 90\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan \u00fclkeden y\u00fczlerce k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel kanaat \u00f6nderini, 3 bin se\u00e7kin kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 ile bir araya getirdi.<\/span><\/p>

KKTC Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Ersin Tatar, Almanya eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Wullf, Kolombiya eski Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Pastrana, \u0130spanya eski Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Zapatero ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin \u00fcst d\u00fczey siyaset\u00e7ilerinin, bakan, b\u00fcrokrat ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 temsilcilerinin de aralar\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7kin bir kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 grubu, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn boyunca \u00e7ok say\u0131da yuvarlak masa toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve panelde bir araya geldi. Zapatero\u2019nun, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7. Do\u011fu ile Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 bir araya getirme kapasitesi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. T\u00fcrkiye, AB\u2019de olmal\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6zleri <\/span>ses getirdi. Almanya eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Wulff ise d\u00fcnya milli gelirinde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye, Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019e kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Wulff, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu a\u015famada Avrupa, Asya ve Afrika aras\u0131nda k\u00f6pr\u00fc olabilece\u011finin, bunun en ak\u0131ll\u0131ca yol olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i Zirvesi gibi uluslararas\u0131 bir organizasyonla k\u00fcresel sistemin kanaat \u00f6nderlerini bir araya getirebilme kabiliyeti, k\u00fcresel sistemde y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fc de per\u00e7inliyor. Bu t\u00fcr toplant\u0131lar\u0131n yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"buyumeye-iliskin-sinyaller-gucleniyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin sinyaller g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":623,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}