{"status":true,"post":{"id":25273,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:02:40","created_at":"2021-03-04T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:02:40.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":25273,"is_featured":0,"title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n anlatt\u0131klar\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 yorumlamak daha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7 2020\u2019deki kadar zor olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu sadece T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de\u011fil, istisnas\u0131z b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli bir durum. Her \u00e7eyre\u011fin kendine has bir hikayesi vard\u0131. Ekonomik aktivitenin dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de oldu, ihracat rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 da. Ekonomi zorlu ve engebeli bir patikada yol ald\u0131. Son \u00e7eyrekte gelen y\u00fczde 5.9\u2019luk b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020\u2019yi y\u0131ldan y\u0131la pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.8\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile \u00c7in\u2019in ard\u0131ndan G20\u2019nin en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci \u00fclkesi oldu. <\/span><\/p>

SEKT\u00d6RLER FARKLI ETK\u0130LED\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcz y\u0131lda bir g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek b\u00f6ylesi zorlu bir d\u00f6nemi pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle tamamlamak moral verici. <\/span><\/p>

Ama maalesef her \u015firket ve sekt\u00f6r salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 ekonomik toparlanmay\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hissedemedi. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 grubunda \u00fcretim yapanlar ve ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparland\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla 2020\u2019de toplam cirosu iki kat artan \u015firketler ve sekt\u00f6rler var. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen imalat sanayi, ekonominin lokomotifi oldu. Kredi piyasas\u0131ndaki canl\u0131l\u0131k sayesinde finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 21.4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Di\u011fer yandan kapanma ve sosyal tedbirlerinin etkisiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluklar ya\u015fayan sekt\u00f6rlerin oldu\u011fu da bir ger\u00e7ek. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4.3 daralan hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bunun en ac\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fi.<\/span><\/p>

MAL\u0130 TE\u015eV\u0130KLER B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DESTEKLED\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkenin elinde arz, talep ve finansal ko\u015fullar \u00fczerinde ayn\u0131 anda \u015fok etkisi yaratan b\u00f6ylesi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizle nas\u0131l m\u00fccadele edilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bir politika rehberi veya k\u0131lavuzu yoktu. \u00dclkeler deneysel politikalar uygulad\u0131. Bu politikalar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri m\u00fckemmel ve yan etkilerden muaf de\u011fildi.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalanmas\u0131nda mali desteklerin rol\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck. Ancak, krediye dayal\u0131 bir te\u015fvik mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n yan etkileri oldu. Enflasyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u00f6vizdeki dalgalanma gibi. T\u00fcrkiye i\u015fsizlik ve iflas oranlar\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede tutmak i\u00e7in mali destek paketinin yan etkilerini daha erken bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015famay\u0131 tercih etti. Trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k mali te\u015fvik sunan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin yan etki ya\u015famad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 veya ya\u015famayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 kimse iddia edemez. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fi\u015fen bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 gelecek y\u0131llarda \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeleri zorlayacak.<\/span><\/p>

HARCAMALAR \u00d6NE \u00c7EK\u0130LD\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki mali destekler t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekti. \u00d6zellikle de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte. Yani bir nevi 2021\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek harcamalar\u0131 \u00f6nden avans olarak kulland\u0131k. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, otomotiv, beyaz e\u015fya ve mobilya gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlere olan talep bu y\u0131l 2020\u2019ye k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok canl\u0131 seyretmeyebilir. Y\u00fckselen faizler de bunu engelliyor. Benzer \u015feylere makine ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in de s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u00d6te yandan, k\u0131s\u0131tlamalardan dolay\u0131 zorluk \u00e7eken sekt\u00f6rler, salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede kayda de\u011fer bir mesafe al\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fayabilir. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 4-4.5 civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmaz. Bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2020\u2019nin aksine daha fazla sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan hissedilebilir ve daha fazla istihdam olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"buyume-rakamlarinin-anlattiklari","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n anlatt\u0131klar\u0131","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1085,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":25372,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":25273,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n anlatt\u0131klar\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 yorumlamak daha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7 2020\u2019deki kadar zor olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu sadece T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de\u011fil, istisnas\u0131z b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli bir durum. Her \u00e7eyre\u011fin kendine has bir hikayesi vard\u0131. Ekonomik aktivitenin dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de oldu, ihracat rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 da. Ekonomi zorlu ve engebeli bir patikada yol ald\u0131. Son \u00e7eyrekte gelen y\u00fczde 5.9\u2019luk b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020\u2019yi y\u0131ldan y\u0131la pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.8\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile \u00c7in\u2019in ard\u0131ndan G20\u2019nin en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci \u00fclkesi oldu. <\/span><\/p>

SEKT\u00d6RLER FARKLI ETK\u0130LED\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcz y\u0131lda bir g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek b\u00f6ylesi zorlu bir d\u00f6nemi pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle tamamlamak moral verici. <\/span><\/p>

Ama maalesef her \u015firket ve sekt\u00f6r salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 ekonomik toparlanmay\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hissedemedi. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 grubunda \u00fcretim yapanlar ve ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparland\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla 2020\u2019de toplam cirosu iki kat artan \u015firketler ve sekt\u00f6rler var. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen imalat sanayi, ekonominin lokomotifi oldu. Kredi piyasas\u0131ndaki canl\u0131l\u0131k sayesinde finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 21.4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Di\u011fer yandan kapanma ve sosyal tedbirlerinin etkisiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluklar ya\u015fayan sekt\u00f6rlerin oldu\u011fu da bir ger\u00e7ek. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4.3 daralan hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bunun en ac\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fi.<\/span><\/p>

MAL\u0130 TE\u015eV\u0130KLER B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DESTEKLED\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkenin elinde arz, talep ve finansal ko\u015fullar \u00fczerinde ayn\u0131 anda \u015fok etkisi yaratan b\u00f6ylesi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizle nas\u0131l m\u00fccadele edilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bir politika rehberi veya k\u0131lavuzu yoktu. \u00dclkeler deneysel politikalar uygulad\u0131. Bu politikalar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri m\u00fckemmel ve yan etkilerden muaf de\u011fildi.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalanmas\u0131nda mali desteklerin rol\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck. Ancak, krediye dayal\u0131 bir te\u015fvik mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n yan etkileri oldu. Enflasyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u00f6vizdeki dalgalanma gibi. T\u00fcrkiye i\u015fsizlik ve iflas oranlar\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede tutmak i\u00e7in mali destek paketinin yan etkilerini daha erken bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015famay\u0131 tercih etti. Trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k mali te\u015fvik sunan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin yan etki ya\u015famad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 veya ya\u015famayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 kimse iddia edemez. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fi\u015fen bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 gelecek y\u0131llarda \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeleri zorlayacak.<\/span><\/p>

HARCAMALAR \u00d6NE \u00c7EK\u0130LD\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki mali destekler t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekti. \u00d6zellikle de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte. Yani bir nevi 2021\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek harcamalar\u0131 \u00f6nden avans olarak kulland\u0131k. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, otomotiv, beyaz e\u015fya ve mobilya gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlere olan talep bu y\u0131l 2020\u2019ye k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok canl\u0131 seyretmeyebilir. Y\u00fckselen faizler de bunu engelliyor. Benzer \u015feylere makine ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in de s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u00d6te yandan, k\u0131s\u0131tlamalardan dolay\u0131 zorluk \u00e7eken sekt\u00f6rler, salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede kayda de\u011fer bir mesafe al\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fayabilir. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 4-4.5 civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmaz. Bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2020\u2019nin aksine daha fazla sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan hissedilebilir ve daha fazla istihdam olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"buyume-rakamlarinin-anlattiklari","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n anlatt\u0131klar\u0131","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1085,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}