{"status":true,"post":{"id":16890,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:13:10","created_at":"2017-07-16T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:13:10.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":16890,"is_featured":0,"title":"B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 ve faizleri art\u0131racak","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f yerini normalle\u015fmeye b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geni\u015fletici para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 da ortadan kalkmaya ba\u015flayacak.<\/span><\/p>

1 - Geni\u015fletici politikalar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumlu ko\u015fullar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, \u0130ngiltere ve Japonya merkez bankalar\u0131 tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck parasal geni\u015flemesini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Burada ama\u00e7, olu\u015fturulan geni\u015fleme ile krizin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ekonomilerin yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Ancak 4 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemesinden sadece bu \u00fclkeler de\u011fil t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler farkl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yararland\u0131. \u00d6ncelikle d\u00fcnyada bir likidite bollu\u011fu olu\u015ftu ve bundan geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin bankalar\u0131 ve \u015firketleri de yararland\u0131. \u00c7ok uzun s\u00fcre \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck finansman maliyetleri olu\u015fturdu. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere \u00f6nemli sermaye giri\u015fleri oldu ve bu \u00fclkelerin para birimleri \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n meydana getirdi\u011fi olumsuz etkiler azald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

2 - ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesinde \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck yap\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 ba\u015flayan parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecinden ilk \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayan ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftiren ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed oldu. Fed \u00f6ncelikle faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Parasal geni\u015flemeyi 2015 ekimde sona erdirdi. \u015eimdi bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Fed bununla ilgili bir plan a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kademeli olarak bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2022 sonuna kadar 4.5 trilyon dolardan 2 trilyon dolara indirilmesi hedefleniyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmenin ne zaman ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131na ise bu y\u0131l eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda karar verilecek ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle ekim veya aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayacak.<\/span><\/p>

3 - Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 geni\u015fletici program\u0131n sonuna geliyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizin ilk y\u0131llar\u0131nda \u00e7ok tutucu davranm\u0131\u015f ve parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmemi\u015fti. Ancak 2013\u2019te geni\u015fleme ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131 ve 2017 haziran itibariyle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Fed bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de ge\u00e7ti. AMB halen her ay 40 milyar Euro tutar\u0131nda tahvil alarak bilan\u00e7osunu geni\u015fletmeye devam ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fletici program\u0131 2017 sonunda sona erecek. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan programa ili\u015fkin ilk gelen de\u011ferlendirmeler program\u0131n art\u0131k uzat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2018\u2019den itibaren bilan\u00e7onun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmeye ba\u015flanabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, eksi olan faizlerini de en az\u0131ndan ilk a\u015famada s\u0131f\u0131ra getirebilir.<\/span><\/p>

4 - \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da Fed gibi \u00e7ok \u00e7abuk davranarak gerekli geni\u015fletici \u00f6nlemleri zaman\u0131nda uygulamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi AB\u2019den \u00e7ok \u00f6nce toparlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 2016\u2019da Fed gibi parasal geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirmesi bekleniyordu. Ancak araya Brexit girince geni\u015fletici politikalara devam karar\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131. Bu y\u0131l ise \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da haziranda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 muhtemelen 2017 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak.<\/span><\/p>

5 - Yeni d\u00f6nemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi nas\u0131l etkiler <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda yeni ko\u015fullar olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bundan, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ve T\u00fcrkiye de etkilenecek. \u00d6ncelikle art\u0131k k\u00fcresel likidite azalaca\u011f\u0131ndan bankalar\u0131n ve reel sekt\u00f6r \u015firketlerinin bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlanacak. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar, daha kademeli ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. Bu nedenle maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 daha az hissedilecek. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 artacak. Her \u00fc\u00e7 banka da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya giderse TL y\u0131lsonuna kadar sepet kur baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6-8 aras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabilecek. Hisse senedi ve tahvilden olu\u015fan portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri ise s\u00fcrecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye bu iki alanda halen \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli getiri olanaklar\u0131 sunuyor. Portf\u00f6y giri\u015flerinin s\u00fcrmesi TL \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z:<\/strong> T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 artacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"buyuk-merkez-bankalari-doviz-kurlarini-ve-faizleri-artiracak","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 ve faizleri art\u0131racak","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":123,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":16989,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":16890,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 ve faizleri art\u0131racak","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f yerini normalle\u015fmeye b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geni\u015fletici para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 da ortadan kalkmaya ba\u015flayacak.<\/span><\/p>

1 - Geni\u015fletici politikalar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumlu ko\u015fullar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, \u0130ngiltere ve Japonya merkez bankalar\u0131 tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck parasal geni\u015flemesini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Burada ama\u00e7, olu\u015fturulan geni\u015fleme ile krizin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ekonomilerin yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Ancak 4 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemesinden sadece bu \u00fclkeler de\u011fil t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler farkl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yararland\u0131. \u00d6ncelikle d\u00fcnyada bir likidite bollu\u011fu olu\u015ftu ve bundan geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin bankalar\u0131 ve \u015firketleri de yararland\u0131. \u00c7ok uzun s\u00fcre \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck finansman maliyetleri olu\u015fturdu. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere \u00f6nemli sermaye giri\u015fleri oldu ve bu \u00fclkelerin para birimleri \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n meydana getirdi\u011fi olumsuz etkiler azald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

2 - ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesinde \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck yap\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 ba\u015flayan parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecinden ilk \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayan ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftiren ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed oldu. Fed \u00f6ncelikle faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Parasal geni\u015flemeyi 2015 ekimde sona erdirdi. \u015eimdi bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Fed bununla ilgili bir plan a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kademeli olarak bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2022 sonuna kadar 4.5 trilyon dolardan 2 trilyon dolara indirilmesi hedefleniyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmenin ne zaman ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131na ise bu y\u0131l eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda karar verilecek ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle ekim veya aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayacak.<\/span><\/p>

3 - Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 geni\u015fletici program\u0131n sonuna geliyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizin ilk y\u0131llar\u0131nda \u00e7ok tutucu davranm\u0131\u015f ve parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmemi\u015fti. Ancak 2013\u2019te geni\u015fleme ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131 ve 2017 haziran itibariyle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Fed bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de ge\u00e7ti. AMB halen her ay 40 milyar Euro tutar\u0131nda tahvil alarak bilan\u00e7osunu geni\u015fletmeye devam ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fletici program\u0131 2017 sonunda sona erecek. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan programa ili\u015fkin ilk gelen de\u011ferlendirmeler program\u0131n art\u0131k uzat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2018\u2019den itibaren bilan\u00e7onun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmeye ba\u015flanabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, eksi olan faizlerini de en az\u0131ndan ilk a\u015famada s\u0131f\u0131ra getirebilir.<\/span><\/p>

4 - \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da Fed gibi \u00e7ok \u00e7abuk davranarak gerekli geni\u015fletici \u00f6nlemleri zaman\u0131nda uygulamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi AB\u2019den \u00e7ok \u00f6nce toparlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 2016\u2019da Fed gibi parasal geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirmesi bekleniyordu. Ancak araya Brexit girince geni\u015fletici politikalara devam karar\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131. Bu y\u0131l ise \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da haziranda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 muhtemelen 2017 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak.<\/span><\/p>

5 - Yeni d\u00f6nemin ko\u015fullar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi nas\u0131l etkiler <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda yeni ko\u015fullar olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bundan, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ve T\u00fcrkiye de etkilenecek. \u00d6ncelikle art\u0131k k\u00fcresel likidite azalaca\u011f\u0131ndan bankalar\u0131n ve reel sekt\u00f6r \u015firketlerinin bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlanacak. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar, daha kademeli ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. Bu nedenle maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 daha az hissedilecek. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 artacak. Her \u00fc\u00e7 banka da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya giderse TL y\u0131lsonuna kadar sepet kur baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6-8 aras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabilecek. Hisse senedi ve tahvilden olu\u015fan portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri ise s\u00fcrecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye bu iki alanda halen \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli getiri olanaklar\u0131 sunuyor. Portf\u00f6y giri\u015flerinin s\u00fcrmesi TL \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z:<\/strong> T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 artacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"buyuk-merkez-bankalari-doviz-kurlarini-ve-faizleri-artiracak","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 ve faizleri art\u0131racak","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":123,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}