{"status":true,"post":{"id":36270,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-01-09 13:03:00","created_at":"2023-01-09T10:03:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-01-09T10:03:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":36270,"is_featured":0,"title":"Bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcme k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomilerden gelecek","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>a.hakan.guldag@gmail.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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\u00c7ok \u015f\u00fck\u00fcr 2023\u2019e girdik. Bu y\u0131l bizim i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bir kere Cumhuriyetimizin 100\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 kutluyoruz bu y\u0131l. Gelece\u011fe umutla bakmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli bir gurur. Kurtulu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n zorlu g\u00fcnlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum da... O g\u00fcnlerden bug\u00fcnlere bak\u0131nca \u00fcstesinden gelemeyece\u011fimiz zorluk yok diyorum do\u011frusu. Yeter ki, birlik ve beraberlik i\u00e7inde ortak hedeflere odaklanal\u0131m.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Ama gelin, 2023\u2019\u00fcn bu ilk Eko-Mercek k\u00f6\u015fesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00e7ok, \u00f6nce d\u00fcnyada e olup bitiyor, 2023\u2019e girerken, d\u00fcnyada beklentiler nas\u0131l \u015fekilleniyor, birlikte bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Tabii \u00fclkemize etkilerini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak...<\/span><\/p>

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GEL\u0130\u015eM\u0130\u015e EKONOM\u0130LERDE DARALMA E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Hemen belirtelim, 2023\u2019te h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenen ilk 10 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda tek bir geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomi bile yok. En b\u00fcy\u00fck pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen Almanya\u2019da 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 1\u2019e yak\u0131n bir daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Do\u011frusu, Avrupa ekonomisinin lokomotifi Almanya\u2019da korkulan olmad\u0131. Bir \u2018enerji krizi\u2019 ya\u015fanm\u0131yor \u015fimdilik. Bunda ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u0131l\u0131man giden havalar\u0131n etkisi epey y\u00fcksek. Yine de Almanya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 bir enerji krizini hafifletmek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni harcamalar ve savunma harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7eyi zorluyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi bu y\u0131l daralmadan ka\u00e7amayacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda 2022\u2019de ikinci pazar\u0131m\u0131z haline gelen ABD\u2019de, 2023\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ancak y\u00fczde yar\u0131m d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verdi\u011fimiz \u00f6nemli pazar\u0131m\u0131z \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ise y\u00fczde 0.8 daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131 vurmaya devam etmesi beklenen Rusya\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019l\u00fck bir daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Rusya\u2019daki daralmaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n mevcut durumunun k\u0131smen de olsa istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat pazarlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha pozitif bir tablo \u00e7izen \u00fclke Irak. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, 2023\u2019te Irak y\u00fczde 4\u2019e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek. Aleyhte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesizli\u011fi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00c7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler i\u00e7erisinde en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6stermesi beklenen pazar. 2023\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 5\u2019e yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Genel olarak ise 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019da daha sert hissedilmek \u00fczere Bat\u0131\u2019da durgunluk etkili olacak. Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla birlikte dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ise bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan ekonominin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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L\u0130BYA EN HIZLI B\u00dcY\u00dcYECEK \u0130K\u0130NC\u0130 \u00dcLKE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomilerden gelecek. Mesela Libya... \u0130\u00e7 sava\u015f yorgunu Libya\u2019n\u0131n 2023\u2019te d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde ekonomisi en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci \u00fclke olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmelerinin \u00fcstesinden gelebilirse Kuzey Afrika\u2019n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckselen y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 olmaya aday Libya\u2019n\u0131n 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 15 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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En h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek \u00fclkeyi merak ederseniz, projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re cevap Guyana... Petrol ve do\u011falgaz \u00fcretimini art\u0131rarak, hammadde ihracat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi beklenen Guyana ekonomisinin 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 30 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Dile kolay! Keza Fildi\u015fi Sahili ve Senegal\u2019in de petrol \u00fcretimlerini art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 7 ve \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekleri tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARINDA GER\u0130 \u00c7EK\u0130LME \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiren, son y\u0131llarda atak i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fumuz demir-\u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bu y\u0131l piyasalarda gerilemeler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Metal fiyatlar\u0131, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda rekor d\u00fczeylere ula\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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2023\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 5 ile 10 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Mesela d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomi ara\u015ft\u0131rma birimlerinden Economist Intelligence taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, metal fiyatlar\u0131nda bu y\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 7 civar\u0131nda olacak. Yine de analistlere g\u00f6re, metal fiyatlar\u0131 pandemi \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 30-40 yukar\u0131da kalmaya devam edecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Yap\u0131lan analizler, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seyrin al\u00fcminyum, \u00e7elik ve \u00e7inko \u00fcretimlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, kimi \u00fclkelerin hurda metal ihracat\u0131na ge\u00e7ici ihracat yasaklar\u0131 getirmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanabilecek. Ye\u015fil enerjiye ge\u00e7i\u015f ve dijitalle\u015fme ise bak\u0131r, lityum, nikel ve di\u011fer baz\u0131 metallerde talebi art\u0131racak. \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin te\u015fvikleri in\u015faat ve imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan metallere olan talebi y\u00fckseltecek. Kuzey Amerika \u00e7eli\u011fi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ise 2023\u2019te son sekiz y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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B\u00fct\u00fcn olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda 2023 boyunca resesyon kaynakl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, baz\u0131 metallerde ya\u015fanabilecek darbo\u011faz nedeniyle zorlanan \u00fcretici \u015firketler, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle bir nebze nefes alacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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ENERJ\u0130 VE P\u0130YASADA DALGALANMALAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Beklentilere g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ve Asya ekonomilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019ye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.5 artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak fiyatlar\u0131 da destekleyecek. Ancak OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretimi bir anlamda istemeye istemeye art\u0131rmas\u0131yla fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Biraz a\u00e7al\u0131m konuyu. Malum, enerji krizinin, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da 2023\u2019te daha da derinle\u015fmesi, k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmesi ve LNG arz\u0131n\u0131n talebe yeti\u015fememesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Avrupa i\u00e7in bu risk devam etmekle beraber ciddi bi\u00e7imde hafifledi. Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kesilmesi meselesi de h\u00e2l\u00e2 masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Ancak \u015fimdilik yeni bir kriz beklenmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyelim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u00d6te yandan, Asya\u2019dan gelen talebin k\u00fcresel petrol talebini yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.5 art\u0131rmas\u0131, bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle g\u00fcnde 1.5 milyon varil art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak petrol ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkelerin \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc OPEC\u2019in de istemeyerek de olsa \u00fcretimini g\u00fcnde 2.4 milyon varil art\u0131rarak fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Nitekim, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gerilemeler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla metal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyecek bir ba\u015fka geli\u015fme ise \u0130spanya\u2019daki LNG\u2019yi yeniden kullan\u0131labilir gaza d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren terminallerin yan\u0131na 2023\u2019te Almanya ve \u0130talya\u2019da yeni LNG terminaller eklenecek olmas\u0131. Bunlar Avrupal\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin elini k\u0131smen de olsa g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ancak uzmanlar, bu ekonomilerin enerjinin ciddi \u015fekilde s\u00fcbvanse edildi\u011fi Asyal\u0131 \u00fcreticilerle rekabet edece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar. Do\u011frusu bu rekabet durumu, enerji maliyetlerinin sanayide h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da son derece kritik bir konu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u00d6zetle, enerji t\u00fcketimi sadece y\u00fczde 1 artsa bile 2023\u2019te enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyrinin s\u00fcrmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, n\u00fckleer enerjiye olan ilginin artmaya devam edece\u011finin alt\u0131 \u00e7iziliyor. Almanya ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de n\u00fckleer tesisleri kapatma planlar\u0131 \u00f6telenecek. Keza, enerji kriziyle birlikte her biri bizim Soma\u2019dan b\u00fcy\u00fck 144 k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralini tekrar faaliyete ge\u00e7iren Avrupa, enerjide kendisini g\u00fcvende hissedene kadar bu karar\u0131ndan d\u00f6necek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f zay\u0131f 2023\u2019te d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler pek parlak de\u011fil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Son alt\u0131 y\u0131ld\u0131r istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artan ve pay\u0131 k\u00fcresel GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 25\u2019ine ula\u015fan altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin nakit a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle 2023\u2019te frene basmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak yine de k\u00fcresel altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 25 trilyon dolar\u0131 bulacak. Beklenti y\u00fczde 1.1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f... Gelgelelim, bu art\u0131\u015f 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel sabit yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en zay\u0131f art\u0131\u015f olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesi planlanan altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131m, su altyap\u0131lar ve dijitalle\u015fmeye odaklan\u0131rken, sava\u015fla birlikte enerji altyap\u0131lar\u0131na da para akmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zla\u015fma \u00e7abalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda do\u011falgaz altyap\u0131lar\u0131, yeni liman yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve LNG i\u00e7in d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm terminali yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te 32 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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T\u00dcRK\u0130YE DE ETK\u0130LENECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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\u0130n\u015faat, otomotiv ve savunma sekt\u00f6rleriyle devam edelim. K\u00fcresel gayrimenkul sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ve 2023\u2019te konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 5.8 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fckselen faizler \u2018mortgage\u2019 kredilerini bask\u0131layarak, baz\u0131 pazarlarda konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7acak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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2023\u2019te elektrikli ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 gibi y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeyi yakalamas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in de bu y\u00f6ndeki talebi desteklemek i\u00e7in elektrikli ara\u00e7 desteklerini geri \u00e7ekme plan\u0131n\u0131 iptal etmeyi planl\u0131yor. Ancak buna kar\u015f\u0131n, toplamda k\u00fcresel otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00fczde 1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma b\u00fct\u00e7esine sahip ABD\u2019nin savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 800 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019in de savunma harcamalar\u0131 artacak. Yine de ABD\u2019nin savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in savunma b\u00fct\u00e7esinin \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na denk gelmesi bekleniyor. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede ise savunma b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde reel olarak daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u00d6zetle, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zor bir y\u0131l olmaya aday. B\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin ya yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da daralaca\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin beklentiler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomiler \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Bu e\u011filim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de etkileyecek. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in kolay bir y\u0131l olmayacak bu y\u0131l. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, bu ger\u00e7ek kendisini hissettirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

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B\u00fcy\u00fcme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yeni hedef pazarlara y\u00f6nelmenin tam zaman\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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tablo var\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"bu-yil-dunyada-buyume-kucuk-ekonomilerden-gelecek","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":54259,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":36396,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":36270,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcme k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomilerden gelecek","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>a.hakan.guldag@gmail.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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\u00c7ok \u015f\u00fck\u00fcr 2023\u2019e girdik. Bu y\u0131l bizim i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bir kere Cumhuriyetimizin 100\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 kutluyoruz bu y\u0131l. Gelece\u011fe umutla bakmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli bir gurur. Kurtulu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n zorlu g\u00fcnlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum da... O g\u00fcnlerden bug\u00fcnlere bak\u0131nca \u00fcstesinden gelemeyece\u011fimiz zorluk yok diyorum do\u011frusu. Yeter ki, birlik ve beraberlik i\u00e7inde ortak hedeflere odaklanal\u0131m.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Ama gelin, 2023\u2019\u00fcn bu ilk Eko-Mercek k\u00f6\u015fesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00e7ok, \u00f6nce d\u00fcnyada e olup bitiyor, 2023\u2019e girerken, d\u00fcnyada beklentiler nas\u0131l \u015fekilleniyor, birlikte bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Tabii \u00fclkemize etkilerini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak...<\/span><\/p>

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GEL\u0130\u015eM\u0130\u015e EKONOM\u0130LERDE DARALMA E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Hemen belirtelim, 2023\u2019te h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenen ilk 10 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda tek bir geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomi bile yok. En b\u00fcy\u00fck pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen Almanya\u2019da 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 1\u2019e yak\u0131n bir daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Do\u011frusu, Avrupa ekonomisinin lokomotifi Almanya\u2019da korkulan olmad\u0131. Bir \u2018enerji krizi\u2019 ya\u015fanm\u0131yor \u015fimdilik. Bunda ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u0131l\u0131man giden havalar\u0131n etkisi epey y\u00fcksek. Yine de Almanya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 bir enerji krizini hafifletmek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni harcamalar ve savunma harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7eyi zorluyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi bu y\u0131l daralmadan ka\u00e7amayacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda 2022\u2019de ikinci pazar\u0131m\u0131z haline gelen ABD\u2019de, 2023\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ancak y\u00fczde yar\u0131m d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verdi\u011fimiz \u00f6nemli pazar\u0131m\u0131z \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ise y\u00fczde 0.8 daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131 vurmaya devam etmesi beklenen Rusya\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019l\u00fck bir daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Rusya\u2019daki daralmaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n mevcut durumunun k\u0131smen de olsa istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat pazarlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha pozitif bir tablo \u00e7izen \u00fclke Irak. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, 2023\u2019te Irak y\u00fczde 4\u2019e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek. Aleyhte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesizli\u011fi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00c7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler i\u00e7erisinde en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6stermesi beklenen pazar. 2023\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 5\u2019e yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Genel olarak ise 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019da daha sert hissedilmek \u00fczere Bat\u0131\u2019da durgunluk etkili olacak. Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla birlikte dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ise bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan ekonominin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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L\u0130BYA EN HIZLI B\u00dcY\u00dcYECEK \u0130K\u0130NC\u0130 \u00dcLKE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomilerden gelecek. Mesela Libya... \u0130\u00e7 sava\u015f yorgunu Libya\u2019n\u0131n 2023\u2019te d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde ekonomisi en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci \u00fclke olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmelerinin \u00fcstesinden gelebilirse Kuzey Afrika\u2019n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckselen y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 olmaya aday Libya\u2019n\u0131n 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 15 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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En h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek \u00fclkeyi merak ederseniz, projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re cevap Guyana... Petrol ve do\u011falgaz \u00fcretimini art\u0131rarak, hammadde ihracat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi beklenen Guyana ekonomisinin 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 30 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Dile kolay! Keza Fildi\u015fi Sahili ve Senegal\u2019in de petrol \u00fcretimlerini art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 7 ve \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekleri tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARINDA GER\u0130 \u00c7EK\u0130LME \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiren, son y\u0131llarda atak i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fumuz demir-\u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bu y\u0131l piyasalarda gerilemeler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Metal fiyatlar\u0131, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda rekor d\u00fczeylere ula\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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2023\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 5 ile 10 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Mesela d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomi ara\u015ft\u0131rma birimlerinden Economist Intelligence taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, metal fiyatlar\u0131nda bu y\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 7 civar\u0131nda olacak. Yine de analistlere g\u00f6re, metal fiyatlar\u0131 pandemi \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 30-40 yukar\u0131da kalmaya devam edecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Yap\u0131lan analizler, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seyrin al\u00fcminyum, \u00e7elik ve \u00e7inko \u00fcretimlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, kimi \u00fclkelerin hurda metal ihracat\u0131na ge\u00e7ici ihracat yasaklar\u0131 getirmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanabilecek. Ye\u015fil enerjiye ge\u00e7i\u015f ve dijitalle\u015fme ise bak\u0131r, lityum, nikel ve di\u011fer baz\u0131 metallerde talebi art\u0131racak. \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin te\u015fvikleri in\u015faat ve imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan metallere olan talebi y\u00fckseltecek. Kuzey Amerika \u00e7eli\u011fi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ise 2023\u2019te son sekiz y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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B\u00fct\u00fcn olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda 2023 boyunca resesyon kaynakl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, baz\u0131 metallerde ya\u015fanabilecek darbo\u011faz nedeniyle zorlanan \u00fcretici \u015firketler, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle bir nebze nefes alacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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ENERJ\u0130 VE P\u0130YASADA DALGALANMALAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Beklentilere g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ve Asya ekonomilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019ye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.5 artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak fiyatlar\u0131 da destekleyecek. Ancak OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretimi bir anlamda istemeye istemeye art\u0131rmas\u0131yla fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Biraz a\u00e7al\u0131m konuyu. Malum, enerji krizinin, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da 2023\u2019te daha da derinle\u015fmesi, k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmesi ve LNG arz\u0131n\u0131n talebe yeti\u015fememesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Avrupa i\u00e7in bu risk devam etmekle beraber ciddi bi\u00e7imde hafifledi. Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kesilmesi meselesi de h\u00e2l\u00e2 masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Ancak \u015fimdilik yeni bir kriz beklenmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyelim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u00d6te yandan, Asya\u2019dan gelen talebin k\u00fcresel petrol talebini yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.5 art\u0131rmas\u0131, bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle g\u00fcnde 1.5 milyon varil art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak petrol ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkelerin \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc OPEC\u2019in de istemeyerek de olsa \u00fcretimini g\u00fcnde 2.4 milyon varil art\u0131rarak fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Nitekim, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gerilemeler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla metal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyecek bir ba\u015fka geli\u015fme ise \u0130spanya\u2019daki LNG\u2019yi yeniden kullan\u0131labilir gaza d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren terminallerin yan\u0131na 2023\u2019te Almanya ve \u0130talya\u2019da yeni LNG terminaller eklenecek olmas\u0131. Bunlar Avrupal\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin elini k\u0131smen de olsa g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ancak uzmanlar, bu ekonomilerin enerjinin ciddi \u015fekilde s\u00fcbvanse edildi\u011fi Asyal\u0131 \u00fcreticilerle rekabet edece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar. Do\u011frusu bu rekabet durumu, enerji maliyetlerinin sanayide h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da son derece kritik bir konu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u00d6zetle, enerji t\u00fcketimi sadece y\u00fczde 1 artsa bile 2023\u2019te enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyrinin s\u00fcrmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, n\u00fckleer enerjiye olan ilginin artmaya devam edece\u011finin alt\u0131 \u00e7iziliyor. Almanya ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de n\u00fckleer tesisleri kapatma planlar\u0131 \u00f6telenecek. Keza, enerji kriziyle birlikte her biri bizim Soma\u2019dan b\u00fcy\u00fck 144 k\u00f6m\u00fcr santralini tekrar faaliyete ge\u00e7iren Avrupa, enerjide kendisini g\u00fcvende hissedene kadar bu karar\u0131ndan d\u00f6necek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f zay\u0131f 2023\u2019te d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler pek parlak de\u011fil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Son alt\u0131 y\u0131ld\u0131r istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artan ve pay\u0131 k\u00fcresel GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 25\u2019ine ula\u015fan altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin nakit a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle 2023\u2019te frene basmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak yine de k\u00fcresel altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 25 trilyon dolar\u0131 bulacak. Beklenti y\u00fczde 1.1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f... Gelgelelim, bu art\u0131\u015f 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel sabit yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en zay\u0131f art\u0131\u015f olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesi planlanan altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131m, su altyap\u0131lar ve dijitalle\u015fmeye odaklan\u0131rken, sava\u015fla birlikte enerji altyap\u0131lar\u0131na da para akmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zla\u015fma \u00e7abalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda do\u011falgaz altyap\u0131lar\u0131, yeni liman yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve LNG i\u00e7in d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm terminali yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te 32 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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T\u00dcRK\u0130YE DE ETK\u0130LENECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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\u0130n\u015faat, otomotiv ve savunma sekt\u00f6rleriyle devam edelim. K\u00fcresel gayrimenkul sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ve 2023\u2019te konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 5.8 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fckselen faizler \u2018mortgage\u2019 kredilerini bask\u0131layarak, baz\u0131 pazarlarda konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7acak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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2023\u2019te elektrikli ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 gibi y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeyi yakalamas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in de bu y\u00f6ndeki talebi desteklemek i\u00e7in elektrikli ara\u00e7 desteklerini geri \u00e7ekme plan\u0131n\u0131 iptal etmeyi planl\u0131yor. Ancak buna kar\u015f\u0131n, toplamda k\u00fcresel otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00fczde 1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma b\u00fct\u00e7esine sahip ABD\u2019nin savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 800 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019in de savunma harcamalar\u0131 artacak. Yine de ABD\u2019nin savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in savunma b\u00fct\u00e7esinin \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na denk gelmesi bekleniyor. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede ise savunma b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde reel olarak daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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\u00d6zetle, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zor bir y\u0131l olmaya aday. B\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin ya yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da daralaca\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin beklentiler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomiler \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Bu e\u011filim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de etkileyecek. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in kolay bir y\u0131l olmayacak bu y\u0131l. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, bu ger\u00e7ek kendisini hissettirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yeni hedef pazarlara y\u00f6nelmenin tam zaman\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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