{"status":true,"post":{"id":41859,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-07-24 08:12:00","created_at":"2023-07-24T05:12:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-07-26T04:38:14.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":41859,"is_featured":0,"title":"Beklentilerde neler de\u011fi\u015fiyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; yeni y\u00f6netimle beraber ekonomi ve para politikalar\u0131nda da de\u011fi\u015fikliklere gidilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin piyasada ne gibi beklenti de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin hangi konularda nas\u0131l oldu\u011funu bilmek, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik kararlar\u0131m\u0131zda son derece \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, her ay piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 beklenti anketi yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. En son iki anketi sizler i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak\u00a0<\/span>ilgin\u00e7 sonu\u00e7lar elde ettik.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ENFLASYON VE KUR YUKARI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ve temmuz aylar\u0131 beklentilerine hep beraber bakal\u0131m. 2023 sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi; haziran ay\u0131ndaki ankette y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 38.55 enflasyon beklenirken, temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 43.82 oran\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. 12 ve 24 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l sonu dolar beklentisinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00f6z konusu. Birinci ankette y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in 26.18 civar\u0131 kur verilirken, ikinci ankette dolar\/TL kur beklentisi 28.46 seviyesine y\u00fckseltildi. 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in de dolar\/TL kur beklentisi 28.99 TL\u2019den 31.42 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

GSYH (b\u00fcy\u00fcme) beklentileri 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 3.8 iken, ikinci anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 3.7, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ilk anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 4.5 iken, ikinci anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 4.3 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere kur oynakl\u0131klar\u0131, faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fleri ve vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, fiyatlamalarda daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentisine i\u015faret ederken, gelecekte daha y\u00fcksek kur bekleyi\u015flerini tetikledi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

VERG\u0130 ARTI\u015eLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle depremden kaynaklanan a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatmak amac\u0131yla konulan vergiler, fiyatlamalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde revizyonlara neden oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentilerinin artmas\u0131na sebep oldu. Ancak konulan her vergi, vergiden ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 da tetikleyebilece\u011finden, hem sistemin kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kaymas\u0131na hem de vergi tahsilat\u0131nda kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na \u00a0yol a\u00e7abilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019nin politika faizlerini kademeli olarak y\u00fckseltmesi, kredi maliyetlerinin de ciddi oranda artmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Ancak bu arada mevduata para giri\u015fi de sa\u011flayabilece\u011finden, krediye ula\u015f\u0131m \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek maliyetle de olsa daha da kolayla\u015fabilir. Konut, araba, alt\u0131n, d\u00f6viz gibi varl\u0131klarda fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"beklentilerde-neler-degisiyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1690146000ct7SghNiJjO1uBw.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1400,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":41985,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":41859,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Beklentilerde neler de\u011fi\u015fiyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; yeni y\u00f6netimle beraber ekonomi ve para politikalar\u0131nda da de\u011fi\u015fikliklere gidilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin piyasada ne gibi beklenti de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin hangi konularda nas\u0131l oldu\u011funu bilmek, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik kararlar\u0131m\u0131zda son derece \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, her ay piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 beklenti anketi yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. En son iki anketi sizler i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak\u00a0<\/span>ilgin\u00e7 sonu\u00e7lar elde ettik.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ENFLASYON VE KUR YUKARI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ve temmuz aylar\u0131 beklentilerine hep beraber bakal\u0131m. 2023 sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi; haziran ay\u0131ndaki ankette y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 38.55 enflasyon beklenirken, temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 43.82 oran\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. 12 ve 24 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l sonu dolar beklentisinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00f6z konusu. Birinci ankette y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in 26.18 civar\u0131 kur verilirken, ikinci ankette dolar\/TL kur beklentisi 28.46 seviyesine y\u00fckseltildi. 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in de dolar\/TL kur beklentisi 28.99 TL\u2019den 31.42 TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

GSYH (b\u00fcy\u00fcme) beklentileri 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 3.8 iken, ikinci anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 3.7, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ilk anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 4.5 iken, ikinci anket d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 4.3 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere kur oynakl\u0131klar\u0131, faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fleri ve vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, fiyatlamalarda daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentisine i\u015faret ederken, gelecekte daha y\u00fcksek kur bekleyi\u015flerini tetikledi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

VERG\u0130 ARTI\u015eLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle depremden kaynaklanan a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatmak amac\u0131yla konulan vergiler, fiyatlamalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde revizyonlara neden oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentilerinin artmas\u0131na sebep oldu. Ancak konulan her vergi, vergiden ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 da tetikleyebilece\u011finden, hem sistemin kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kaymas\u0131na hem de vergi tahsilat\u0131nda kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na \u00a0yol a\u00e7abilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019nin politika faizlerini kademeli olarak y\u00fckseltmesi, kredi maliyetlerinin de ciddi oranda artmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Ancak bu arada mevduata para giri\u015fi de sa\u011flayabilece\u011finden, krediye ula\u015f\u0131m \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek maliyetle de olsa daha da kolayla\u015fabilir. Konut, araba, alt\u0131n, d\u00f6viz gibi varl\u0131klarda fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"beklentilerde-neler-degisiyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1690146000ct7SghNiJjO1uBw.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1690146000ct7SghNiJjO1uBw.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1400,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}