{"status":true,"post":{"id":35982,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":1,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-12-27 10:04:57","created_at":"2022-12-27T10:04:57.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-12-27T10:35:54.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":35982,"is_featured":0,"title":"Beklentiler farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a belirsizlikler art\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na farkl\u0131 beklentiler ile giriliyor. Ya\u015fanan pandeminin \u015foku hen\u00fcz yeni atlat\u0131lmakta iken ba\u015flayan Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkiledi ve bu etkiler 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na da sark\u0131yor. Tam da bu noktada 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm konularda beklentiler farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel enflasyon, para politikalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enerji krizi ve g\u0131da krizi, \u00c7in\u2019in salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadele politikalar\u0131, emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve paritelere ili\u015fkin olarak \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 beklentiler bulunuyor. Bu da 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. K\u00dcRESEL ENFLASYON VE SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARININ S\u00dcRES\u0130NE \u0130L\u0130\u015eK\u0130N FARKLI \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcLER \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide \u00f6nce pandemi, sonra Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali ile ba\u015flayan sava\u015f\u0131n etkileri sonucu enflasyon uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ba\u015flat\u0131lan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 da ekonomilerde h\u0131zl\u0131 yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

S\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcresi, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledeki ba\u015far\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131. Bu noktada farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler bulunuyor. Sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 yeni fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaz ise enflasyonun 2023 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimlerinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 senaryosu daha \u00e7ok benimseniyor. Di\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ise enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flasa dahi faiz indirimlerinin en erken 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u015feklinde. Enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 ihtimali ise \u015fimdilik g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDEN RESESYONA FARKLI BEKLENT\u0130LER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

S\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 ekonomilerde yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise yava\u015flamalar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye d\u00f6nmesi ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Yine benzer \u015fekilde mal ticaretinde de 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde daralma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomilerdeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeler, Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve \u0130ngiltere pazar\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli. ABD\u2019de olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Asya\u2019da da yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji ve emtia ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkelerde ise g\u00f6receli olarak daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu genel beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n ekonomide daha derin, genele yay\u0131lan ve uzun s\u00fcrecek resesyon beklentileri de dile getiriliyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. ENERJ\u0130 VE GIDA KR\u0130Z\u0130 OLASILIKLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide a\u011f\u0131r basan bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda enerji ve g\u0131da krizi ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklentisi. Daha zorlu k\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da enerji krizi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc bulunuyor. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Avrupa\u2019da daha kuvvetli bir daralma ya\u015fanacak ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olumsuz etkilenecek. Avrupa k\u0131\u015fa girerken bir enerji krizi ya\u015famamak i\u00e7in enerji tasarrufu dahil t\u00fcm \u00f6nlemlerini ald\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da kontrol etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7ok sert bir k\u0131\u015f olmazsa Avrupa k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir enerji krizi ya\u015famadan ge\u00e7irebilecek. G\u0131da alan\u0131nda ise \u00f6zellikle kurakl\u0131k ve sava\u015f etkisi ile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda kriz ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. \u00c7\u0130N\u2019\u0130N POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI VE EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorlar\u0131ndan biri. Bu nedenle \u00c7in ekonomisinin performans\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in de belirleyici oluyor. \u00c7in, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n hemen tamam\u0131nda salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r taviz politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc, ancak bu politikalar ekonomide \u00f6nemli yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na girilirken \u00c7in, salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerini yumu\u015fat\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019den daha iyi bir performans bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI VE PAR\u0130TELER \u0130\u00c7\u0130N FARKLI HESAPLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve pariteler i\u00e7in de farkl\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, para politikalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda azalmas\u0131, faiz indirimlerine gidilmesi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu emtia ve varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi. Paritelerde de dolar\u0131n gerilemesi \u015feklinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler bulunuyor. Ancak bu da iyimser bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ABD dolar\u0131 muhtemelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam edecek. Paritelerde de bu y\u0131lki kapan\u0131\u015flara yak\u0131n seviyeler ya\u015fanacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na \u00f6nemli belirsizlikler ile girerken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci ve beklentileri yeni y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekillendirecek.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"beklentiler-farklilastikca-belirsizlikler-artiyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1100,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":36108,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":35982,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Beklentiler farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a belirsizlikler art\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na farkl\u0131 beklentiler ile giriliyor. Ya\u015fanan pandeminin \u015foku hen\u00fcz yeni atlat\u0131lmakta iken ba\u015flayan Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkiledi ve bu etkiler 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na da sark\u0131yor. Tam da bu noktada 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm konularda beklentiler farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel enflasyon, para politikalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enerji krizi ve g\u0131da krizi, \u00c7in\u2019in salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadele politikalar\u0131, emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve paritelere ili\u015fkin olarak \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 beklentiler bulunuyor. Bu da 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. K\u00dcRESEL ENFLASYON VE SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARININ S\u00dcRES\u0130NE \u0130L\u0130\u015eK\u0130N FARKLI \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcLER \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide \u00f6nce pandemi, sonra Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali ile ba\u015flayan sava\u015f\u0131n etkileri sonucu enflasyon uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ba\u015flat\u0131lan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 da ekonomilerde h\u0131zl\u0131 yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

S\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcresi, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledeki ba\u015far\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131. Bu noktada farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler bulunuyor. Sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 yeni fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaz ise enflasyonun 2023 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimlerinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 senaryosu daha \u00e7ok benimseniyor. Di\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ise enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flasa dahi faiz indirimlerinin en erken 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u015feklinde. Enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 ihtimali ise \u015fimdilik g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDEN RESESYONA FARKLI BEKLENT\u0130LER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

S\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 ekonomilerde yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise yava\u015flamalar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye d\u00f6nmesi ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Yine benzer \u015fekilde mal ticaretinde de 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde daralma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomilerdeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeler, Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve \u0130ngiltere pazar\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli. ABD\u2019de olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Asya\u2019da da yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji ve emtia ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkelerde ise g\u00f6receli olarak daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu genel beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n ekonomide daha derin, genele yay\u0131lan ve uzun s\u00fcrecek resesyon beklentileri de dile getiriliyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. ENERJ\u0130 VE GIDA KR\u0130Z\u0130 OLASILIKLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide a\u011f\u0131r basan bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda enerji ve g\u0131da krizi ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklentisi. Daha zorlu k\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da enerji krizi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc bulunuyor. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Avrupa\u2019da daha kuvvetli bir daralma ya\u015fanacak ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olumsuz etkilenecek. Avrupa k\u0131\u015fa girerken bir enerji krizi ya\u015famamak i\u00e7in enerji tasarrufu dahil t\u00fcm \u00f6nlemlerini ald\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da kontrol etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7ok sert bir k\u0131\u015f olmazsa Avrupa k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir enerji krizi ya\u015famadan ge\u00e7irebilecek. G\u0131da alan\u0131nda ise \u00f6zellikle kurakl\u0131k ve sava\u015f etkisi ile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda kriz ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. \u00c7\u0130N\u2019\u0130N POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI VE EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorlar\u0131ndan biri. Bu nedenle \u00c7in ekonomisinin performans\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in de belirleyici oluyor. \u00c7in, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n hemen tamam\u0131nda salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r taviz politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc, ancak bu politikalar ekonomide \u00f6nemli yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na girilirken \u00c7in, salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerini yumu\u015fat\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019den daha iyi bir performans bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI VE PAR\u0130TELER \u0130\u00c7\u0130N FARKLI HESAPLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve pariteler i\u00e7in de farkl\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, para politikalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda azalmas\u0131, faiz indirimlerine gidilmesi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu emtia ve varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi. Paritelerde de dolar\u0131n gerilemesi \u015feklinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler bulunuyor. Ancak bu da iyimser bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ABD dolar\u0131 muhtemelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam edecek. Paritelerde de bu y\u0131lki kapan\u0131\u015flara yak\u0131n seviyeler ya\u015fanacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na \u00f6nemli belirsizlikler ile girerken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci ve beklentileri yeni y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekillendirecek.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"beklentiler-farklilastikca-belirsizlikler-artiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1100,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}