{"status":true,"post":{"id":20403,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:51:29","created_at":"2019-05-26T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:51:29.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20403,"is_featured":0,"title":"Basra\u2019da sular \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor senaryonuz haz\u0131r m\u0131?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Yaz iyice y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ama \u2018f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u2019 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc dinmek bilmedi. G\u00fcn ge\u00e7miyor ki, i\u015fimizi etkileyecek bir i\u00e7 ya da d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fme ya\u015fanmas\u0131n. Hatta, tam \u2018eh art\u0131k bu da geride kald\u0131\u2019 derken, bir geli\u015fme filmi adeta ba\u015fa sar\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran konusunda da benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne sava\u015f gemisi g\u00f6ndermesiyle, F-35\u2019lerin \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda u\u00e7u\u015flar yapmas\u0131yla iyice y\u00fckselen tansiyon, sonras\u0131nda gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla d\u00fc\u015fer gibi olmu\u015ftu ki, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tehditlerle yeniden y\u00fckseldi. <\/span><\/p>

Bahreyn\u2019in, vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018\u0130ran ve Irak\u2019\u0131 derhal terk etmelerini\u2019 istedi\u011fi ABD-\u0130ran geriliminde \u015fimdilik gelinen noktay\u0131, deneyimli savunma ve diplomasi muhabiri Jonathan Marcus, \u201c\u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda bir sava\u015f, Trump y\u00f6netimi devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana en olas\u0131 hale gelmi\u015f durumda\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle yorumluyor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kom\u015fusu... <\/span>
ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran ile ilgili karar ve eylemleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi hem ekonomik hem de jeopolitik a\u00e7\u0131dan etkiliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Washington\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 2 May\u0131s\u2019tan itibaren tamamen yasaklamas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir sorun. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 halen dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izliyor. Tansiyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde daha da artmas\u0131yla yeniden yukar\u0131 hareketlenebilir. Analistler bundan en \u00e7ok etkilenecek \u00fclkeler listesinin ba\u015f\u0131na \u00c7in, Hindistan, Arjantin, \u0130spanya ile birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi koyuyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u00d6te yandan, b\u00f6lgede b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin rekabeti de yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi ABD\u2019li uzmanlar\u0131n k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanacaklar i\u00e7in yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 soru \u015fu:<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ve Rusya ile hegemonya m\u00fccadelesinin \u015fiddetlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde \u0130ran, Washington\u2019\u0131n stratejik \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131nc\u0131 s\u0131rada yer alacak? <\/span><\/p>

Ve hemen ard\u0131ndan da \u015fu soru geliyor: \u0130ran, sava\u015f g\u00f6ze al\u0131nabilecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehdit mi? <\/span><\/p>

Anla\u015f\u0131lan o ki, bir\u00e7ok ABD\u2019li strateji uzman\u0131na g\u00f6re bu sorunun cevab\u0131 \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019. Yine de bu yan\u0131t pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin i\u00e7ini rahatlatmaya yetmiyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kriz \u00e7\u0131karmaktan \u00f6te, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD, \u0130srail ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekecek geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. <\/span><\/p>

\u00c7o\u011fu uzmana g\u00f6re, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n i\u015fgaline y\u00f6nelik bir askeri kara harekat\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak, denizden ve havadan bir operasyon m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ve bu da sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 de\u011fil, t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi bir anda ate\u015f \u00e7emberine \u00e7evirebilir. <\/span><\/p>

B\u00f6yle bir olas\u0131l\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, \u0130ran ile ticaretin ya da petrol tedarikinde do\u011fan bo\u015flu\u011fu nas\u0131l dolduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, \u00e7ok daha zor stratejik risklerle, se\u00e7eneklerle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kalaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. <\/span>
Mum iki ucundan birden yanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, erime s\u00fcresi k\u0131sald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi elinizi yakma ihtimali de y\u00fckselir. Ekonomik oldu\u011fu kadar ya\u015fanan ve muhtemel jeopolitik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerle ba\u015f etmek kolay olmayacak. <\/span><\/p>

Bu zorluklar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin birli\u011fini dosta d\u00fc\u015fmana g\u00f6sterecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir duru\u015f sergilemesi, sadece kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgenin selameti bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

GELECE\u011eE HAZIRLANMAK \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SENARYO PLANLAMASI FAYDALI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Senaryo planlamas\u0131 1960\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda uygulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130lk kez dev petrol \u015firketi Shell\u2019de...<\/span><\/p>

Haz\u0131rlanan senaryolar i\u00e7erisinde 70\u2019li y\u0131llarda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine yer veriliyordu. Yine 80\u2019li y\u0131llarda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131labilece\u011fi gibi ihtimaller de bu senaryolarda yer al\u0131yordu. <\/span><\/p>

Bu ihtimallerin \u00e7o\u011fu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 1973\u2019te 3.29 dolar olan bir varil petrol\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131 1974\u2019te 11.58 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1989\u2019da Berlin Duvar\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. Do\u011fu Bloku ve ard\u0131ndan SSCB da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span>
Shell, senaryo planlamas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, risklere ve f\u0131rsatlara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in rakiplerinden hep bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde oldu. <\/span><\/p>

En istikrarl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bile gelece\u011fi kestirmek zor... Kald\u0131 ki, \u00fcnl\u00fc y\u00f6netim gurusu Peter Drucker\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi gibi, \u201cGelece\u011fi \u00f6nceden g\u00f6rmek, sizi sadece dertlere bo\u011far.\u201d Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken, ortada olan\u0131 y\u00f6netmektir. F\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yap\u0131lacak ilk i\u015f, ayakta kalmakt\u0131r. Yani, darbelere kar\u015f\u0131 koymak i\u00e7in ba\u015f\u0131nda bulundu\u011funuz \u015firket ya da kurumun kapasitesi, yap\u0131sal g\u00fcc\u00fc ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda gerekli \u00f6nlemleri almak, ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere uyum sa\u011flamak ve m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse yeni f\u0131rsatlardan yararlanmakt\u0131r. Yap\u0131labilece\u011fi ve yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekeni yapmakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eu s\u0131ralarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin etraf\u0131nda belirsizlik d\u00fczeyi y\u00fcksek. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, daha da y\u00fckselecek. Burnumuzun dibinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Sadece \u0130ran meselesi de\u011fil. Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de artan gerilim de, S-400\u2019ler de eninde sonunda i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ortam\u0131 etkiliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n, belirsizliklerin iyice artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyada senaryo planlamas\u0131 \u015fimdi daha da kritik bir \u00f6neme sahip. Bat\u0131\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketler, bu i\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6zel dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan hizmet al\u0131yor. Singapur\u2019da ise bu i\u015fi epey zamand\u0131r bizzat devlet \u00fcstlendi. Bir \u2018senaryo planlamas\u0131 ofisi\u2019 kurdu, \u015firketlere yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. <\/span><\/p>

Tabii ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn bir b\u00f6lgeyi, hatta d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyen konularda ki\u015filer ya da \u015firketler olarak yapabileceklerimiz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Yapabilece\u011fimiz en iyi \u015feylerden biri, senaryo yazmak. \u0130htimalleri de\u011ferlendirip, bunlara g\u00f6re senaryo yaz\u0131p, planlama yapan \u015firketler, ani geli\u015fmelere, U d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olur. Tek bir ihtimale g\u00f6re planlama yapan \u015firket y\u00f6neticileri ise olaylar farkl\u0131 geli\u015fti\u011finde manevra yapmakta gecikir. <\/span><\/p>

Shell\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z senaryolar\u0131n aynen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimalinin pek y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Ancak bizi bekleyen ihtimallere kafa yordu\u011fumuzda, ufkumuz geni\u015fler. Bak\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z derinle\u015fir, sezgilerimiz keskinle\u015fir. \u015eirketimiz de gelece\u011fe daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olur. <\/span><\/p>

Belki de hepsinden \u00f6nemlisi, senaryo planlamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, \u015firketin t\u00fcm faaliyetlerine h\u0131z kazand\u0131r\u0131r. Aniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011fi\u015fikliklere kar\u015f\u0131 refleksi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Zamanlama avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flar. <\/span>
Yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z senaryolar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri tutmasa bile siz senaryo planlamas\u0131 yapmayan rakiplerinize g\u00f6re, daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olursunuz. Bu da belirsizli\u011fin dozunun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve de rekabetin iyice keskinle\u015fti\u011fi bir ortamda sizin bir ad\u0131m daha \u00f6nde olman\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6nce d\u00fcnya, sonra \u00fclke, sekt\u00f6r ve firman\u0131z i\u00e7in iyimser, k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ve en olas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 yaz\u0131n. Plan yapmak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olman\u0131n yoludur. Senaryo planlamas\u0131 \u015firketinizin gelece\u011fe haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131na \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sunabilir. \u015eiddetle \u00f6neririm...<\/span><\/p>

\u0130RAN EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 K\u00d6T\u00dcLE\u015e\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u0130ran ekonomisi \u00fczerinde giderek daha olumsuz bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131yor. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ruhani, ekonominin 1980-88 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki Irak Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir noktaya geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: \u201cSava\u015f d\u00f6neminde bankalar\u0131m\u0131z, petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z, ithalat ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131zla ilgili sorunumuz yoktu. Yaln\u0131zca silah ambargosuna maruz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k...\u201d<\/span><\/p>

IMF, \u0130ran ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi tahmininde bulundu. \u00dcstelik bu tahmin, ABD\u2019nin, bizimle birlikte \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore dahil 8 \u00fclkeye tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 muafiyetten \u00f6nceydi. \u015eimdi ABD, bu \u00fclkelerin de \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131na getirdi\u011fi muafiyeti kald\u0131rd\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini petrol gelirlerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u0130ran ekonomisi daha da daralabilir. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130RAN\u2019DAN K\u0130M, NE KADAR PETROL ALIYOR?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin bu ay ba\u015f\u0131nda muafiyet tan\u0131maktan vazge\u00e7ti\u011fi \u00fclkelerin \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama petrol ithalat\u0131 (bin varil)<\/span><\/p>
<\/td> May\u0131s-Ekim 2018<\/strong><\/span><\/td> Kas\u0131m 2018 - Mart 2019<\/strong><\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
\u00c7in<\/span><\/td> 590<\/span><\/td> 360<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Hindistan<\/span><\/td> 563<\/span><\/td> 300<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Japonya<\/span><\/td> 149<\/span><\/td> 80<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
G\u00fcney Kore<\/span><\/td> 50<\/span><\/td> 117<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Tayvan<\/span><\/td> 32<\/span><\/td> 0<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
T\u00fcrkiye<\/span><\/td> 120<\/span><\/td> 73<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Yunanistan<\/span><\/td> 85<\/span><\/td> 0<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
\u0130talya<\/span><\/td> 121<\/span><\/td> 0<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Kaynak: SVB Energy International<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/tr> <\/tbody> <\/table>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan ne kadar petrol ithal etti\u011fine ili\u015fkin veriler farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Oxford Enerji \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019ne g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnde 144 bin varil petrol ithal ediyor. Grafikte g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi SVB g\u00fcnl\u00fck 73 bin varil, kimi kaynaklar ise g\u00fcnde 60 bin varil petrol ithal edildi\u011fi verisini payla\u015f\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Hami Aksoy\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019dan son d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lan petrol ithalat\u0131na ili\u015fkin verdi\u011fi bilgilerden yap\u0131lan hesaplamalara g\u00f6re ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ithalat\u0131, muafiyetin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce g\u00fcnde 35 bin varile kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"basrada-sular-isiniyor-senaryonuz-hazir-mi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Basra\u2019da sular \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor senaryonuz haz\u0131r m\u0131?","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1070,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20502,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20403,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Basra\u2019da sular \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor senaryonuz haz\u0131r m\u0131?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Yaz iyice y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ama \u2018f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u2019 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc dinmek bilmedi. G\u00fcn ge\u00e7miyor ki, i\u015fimizi etkileyecek bir i\u00e7 ya da d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fme ya\u015fanmas\u0131n. Hatta, tam \u2018eh art\u0131k bu da geride kald\u0131\u2019 derken, bir geli\u015fme filmi adeta ba\u015fa sar\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran konusunda da benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne sava\u015f gemisi g\u00f6ndermesiyle, F-35\u2019lerin \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda u\u00e7u\u015flar yapmas\u0131yla iyice y\u00fckselen tansiyon, sonras\u0131nda gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla d\u00fc\u015fer gibi olmu\u015ftu ki, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tehditlerle yeniden y\u00fckseldi. <\/span><\/p>

Bahreyn\u2019in, vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018\u0130ran ve Irak\u2019\u0131 derhal terk etmelerini\u2019 istedi\u011fi ABD-\u0130ran geriliminde \u015fimdilik gelinen noktay\u0131, deneyimli savunma ve diplomasi muhabiri Jonathan Marcus, \u201c\u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda bir sava\u015f, Trump y\u00f6netimi devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana en olas\u0131 hale gelmi\u015f durumda\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle yorumluyor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kom\u015fusu... <\/span>
ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran ile ilgili karar ve eylemleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi hem ekonomik hem de jeopolitik a\u00e7\u0131dan etkiliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Washington\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 2 May\u0131s\u2019tan itibaren tamamen yasaklamas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir sorun. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 halen dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izliyor. Tansiyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde daha da artmas\u0131yla yeniden yukar\u0131 hareketlenebilir. Analistler bundan en \u00e7ok etkilenecek \u00fclkeler listesinin ba\u015f\u0131na \u00c7in, Hindistan, Arjantin, \u0130spanya ile birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi koyuyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u00d6te yandan, b\u00f6lgede b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin rekabeti de yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi ABD\u2019li uzmanlar\u0131n k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanacaklar i\u00e7in yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 soru \u015fu:<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ve Rusya ile hegemonya m\u00fccadelesinin \u015fiddetlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde \u0130ran, Washington\u2019\u0131n stratejik \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131nc\u0131 s\u0131rada yer alacak? <\/span><\/p>

Ve hemen ard\u0131ndan da \u015fu soru geliyor: \u0130ran, sava\u015f g\u00f6ze al\u0131nabilecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehdit mi? <\/span><\/p>

Anla\u015f\u0131lan o ki, bir\u00e7ok ABD\u2019li strateji uzman\u0131na g\u00f6re bu sorunun cevab\u0131 \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019. Yine de bu yan\u0131t pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin i\u00e7ini rahatlatmaya yetmiyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kriz \u00e7\u0131karmaktan \u00f6te, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD, \u0130srail ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekecek geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. <\/span><\/p>

\u00c7o\u011fu uzmana g\u00f6re, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n i\u015fgaline y\u00f6nelik bir askeri kara harekat\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak, denizden ve havadan bir operasyon m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ve bu da sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 de\u011fil, t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi bir anda ate\u015f \u00e7emberine \u00e7evirebilir. <\/span><\/p>

B\u00f6yle bir olas\u0131l\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, \u0130ran ile ticaretin ya da petrol tedarikinde do\u011fan bo\u015flu\u011fu nas\u0131l dolduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, \u00e7ok daha zor stratejik risklerle, se\u00e7eneklerle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kalaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. <\/span>
Mum iki ucundan birden yanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, erime s\u00fcresi k\u0131sald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi elinizi yakma ihtimali de y\u00fckselir. Ekonomik oldu\u011fu kadar ya\u015fanan ve muhtemel jeopolitik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerle ba\u015f etmek kolay olmayacak. <\/span><\/p>

Bu zorluklar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin birli\u011fini dosta d\u00fc\u015fmana g\u00f6sterecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir duru\u015f sergilemesi, sadece kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgenin selameti bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

GELECE\u011eE HAZIRLANMAK \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SENARYO PLANLAMASI FAYDALI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Senaryo planlamas\u0131 1960\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda uygulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130lk kez dev petrol \u015firketi Shell\u2019de...<\/span><\/p>

Haz\u0131rlanan senaryolar i\u00e7erisinde 70\u2019li y\u0131llarda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine yer veriliyordu. Yine 80\u2019li y\u0131llarda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131labilece\u011fi gibi ihtimaller de bu senaryolarda yer al\u0131yordu. <\/span><\/p>

Bu ihtimallerin \u00e7o\u011fu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 1973\u2019te 3.29 dolar olan bir varil petrol\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131 1974\u2019te 11.58 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1989\u2019da Berlin Duvar\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. Do\u011fu Bloku ve ard\u0131ndan SSCB da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span>
Shell, senaryo planlamas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, risklere ve f\u0131rsatlara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in rakiplerinden hep bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde oldu. <\/span><\/p>

En istikrarl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bile gelece\u011fi kestirmek zor... Kald\u0131 ki, \u00fcnl\u00fc y\u00f6netim gurusu Peter Drucker\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi gibi, \u201cGelece\u011fi \u00f6nceden g\u00f6rmek, sizi sadece dertlere bo\u011far.\u201d Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken, ortada olan\u0131 y\u00f6netmektir. F\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yap\u0131lacak ilk i\u015f, ayakta kalmakt\u0131r. Yani, darbelere kar\u015f\u0131 koymak i\u00e7in ba\u015f\u0131nda bulundu\u011funuz \u015firket ya da kurumun kapasitesi, yap\u0131sal g\u00fcc\u00fc ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda gerekli \u00f6nlemleri almak, ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere uyum sa\u011flamak ve m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse yeni f\u0131rsatlardan yararlanmakt\u0131r. Yap\u0131labilece\u011fi ve yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekeni yapmakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eu s\u0131ralarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin etraf\u0131nda belirsizlik d\u00fczeyi y\u00fcksek. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, daha da y\u00fckselecek. Burnumuzun dibinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Sadece \u0130ran meselesi de\u011fil. Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de artan gerilim de, S-400\u2019ler de eninde sonunda i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ortam\u0131 etkiliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n, belirsizliklerin iyice artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyada senaryo planlamas\u0131 \u015fimdi daha da kritik bir \u00f6neme sahip. Bat\u0131\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketler, bu i\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6zel dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan hizmet al\u0131yor. Singapur\u2019da ise bu i\u015fi epey zamand\u0131r bizzat devlet \u00fcstlendi. Bir \u2018senaryo planlamas\u0131 ofisi\u2019 kurdu, \u015firketlere yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. <\/span><\/p>

Tabii ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn bir b\u00f6lgeyi, hatta d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyen konularda ki\u015filer ya da \u015firketler olarak yapabileceklerimiz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Yapabilece\u011fimiz en iyi \u015feylerden biri, senaryo yazmak. \u0130htimalleri de\u011ferlendirip, bunlara g\u00f6re senaryo yaz\u0131p, planlama yapan \u015firketler, ani geli\u015fmelere, U d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olur. Tek bir ihtimale g\u00f6re planlama yapan \u015firket y\u00f6neticileri ise olaylar farkl\u0131 geli\u015fti\u011finde manevra yapmakta gecikir. <\/span><\/p>

Shell\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z senaryolar\u0131n aynen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimalinin pek y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Ancak bizi bekleyen ihtimallere kafa yordu\u011fumuzda, ufkumuz geni\u015fler. Bak\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z derinle\u015fir, sezgilerimiz keskinle\u015fir. \u015eirketimiz de gelece\u011fe daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olur. <\/span><\/p>

Belki de hepsinden \u00f6nemlisi, senaryo planlamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, \u015firketin t\u00fcm faaliyetlerine h\u0131z kazand\u0131r\u0131r. Aniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan de\u011fi\u015fikliklere kar\u015f\u0131 refleksi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Zamanlama avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flar. <\/span>
Yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z senaryolar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri tutmasa bile siz senaryo planlamas\u0131 yapmayan rakiplerinize g\u00f6re, daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olursunuz. Bu da belirsizli\u011fin dozunun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve de rekabetin iyice keskinle\u015fti\u011fi bir ortamda sizin bir ad\u0131m daha \u00f6nde olman\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6nce d\u00fcnya, sonra \u00fclke, sekt\u00f6r ve firman\u0131z i\u00e7in iyimser, k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ve en olas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 yaz\u0131n. Plan yapmak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olman\u0131n yoludur. Senaryo planlamas\u0131 \u015firketinizin gelece\u011fe haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131na \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sunabilir. \u015eiddetle \u00f6neririm...<\/span><\/p>

\u0130RAN EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 K\u00d6T\u00dcLE\u015e\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u0130ran ekonomisi \u00fczerinde giderek daha olumsuz bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131yor. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ruhani, ekonominin 1980-88 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki Irak Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir noktaya geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: \u201cSava\u015f d\u00f6neminde bankalar\u0131m\u0131z, petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z, ithalat ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131zla ilgili sorunumuz yoktu. Yaln\u0131zca silah ambargosuna maruz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k...\u201d<\/span><\/p>

IMF, \u0130ran ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi tahmininde bulundu. \u00dcstelik bu tahmin, ABD\u2019nin, bizimle birlikte \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore dahil 8 \u00fclkeye tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 muafiyetten \u00f6nceydi. \u015eimdi ABD, bu \u00fclkelerin de \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131na getirdi\u011fi muafiyeti kald\u0131rd\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini petrol gelirlerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u0130ran ekonomisi daha da daralabilir. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130RAN\u2019DAN K\u0130M, NE KADAR PETROL ALIYOR?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin bu ay ba\u015f\u0131nda muafiyet tan\u0131maktan vazge\u00e7ti\u011fi \u00fclkelerin \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama petrol ithalat\u0131 (bin varil)<\/span><\/p>
<\/td> May\u0131s-Ekim 2018<\/strong><\/span><\/td> Kas\u0131m 2018 - Mart 2019<\/strong><\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
\u00c7in<\/span><\/td> 590<\/span><\/td> 360<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Hindistan<\/span><\/td> 563<\/span><\/td> 300<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Japonya<\/span><\/td> 149<\/span><\/td> 80<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
G\u00fcney Kore<\/span><\/td> 50<\/span><\/td> 117<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Tayvan<\/span><\/td> 32<\/span><\/td> 0<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
T\u00fcrkiye<\/span><\/td> 120<\/span><\/td> 73<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Yunanistan<\/span><\/td> 85<\/span><\/td> 0<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
\u0130talya<\/span><\/td> 121<\/span><\/td> 0<\/span><\/td> <\/tr>
Kaynak: SVB Energy International<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/tr> <\/tbody> <\/table>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan ne kadar petrol ithal etti\u011fine ili\u015fkin veriler farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Oxford Enerji \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019ne g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnde 144 bin varil petrol ithal ediyor. Grafikte g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi SVB g\u00fcnl\u00fck 73 bin varil, kimi kaynaklar ise g\u00fcnde 60 bin varil petrol ithal edildi\u011fi verisini payla\u015f\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Hami Aksoy\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019dan son d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lan petrol ithalat\u0131na ili\u015fkin verdi\u011fi bilgilerden yap\u0131lan hesaplamalara g\u00f6re ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ithalat\u0131, muafiyetin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce g\u00fcnde 35 bin varile kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"basrada-sular-isiniyor-senaryonuz-hazir-mi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Basra\u2019da sular \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor senaryonuz haz\u0131r m\u0131?","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1070,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}