{"status":true,"post":{"id":58569,"user_id":30,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-12-09 07:37:00","created_at":"2024-12-09T04:37:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-09T04:37:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":58569,"is_featured":0,"title":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n umudu Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131nda","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. AHMET KAVAS","content":"

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda do\u011falgaza ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131yla azaltma hedefiyle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gaz talebinin y\u00fczde 30 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Fakat bu hedefin hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Afrika ile azaltmay\u0131 tercih etmesi s\u00f6z konusu. \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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D\u00fcnya genelinde enerjiye olan talep her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn tahminlerin de \u00f6tesinde art\u0131yor. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n giderek en \u00f6nemli kaynaklar aras\u0131nda yer almas\u0131, Afrika\u2019y\u0131 Avrupa, Asya ve ABD i\u00e7in adeta vazge\u00e7ilmez bir merkez k\u0131taya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Uluslararas\u0131 enerji \u015firketleri bir an evvel herhangi bir co\u011frafyada \u00e7\u0131kacak ve en k\u00f6kl\u00fc ili\u015fkileri sarsan gerginlikler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeni \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131 \u00fcretmek zorunda kal\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 2022 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019ya sava\u015f ilan\u0131, olabilecek en k\u00f6t\u00fc ihtimaldi ve bir anda t\u00fcm dengeleri sarst\u0131. Y\u00fcksek maliyeti sebebiyle bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc hayatiyet kazanamayan Afrika\u2019n\u0131n hidrokarb\u00fcr boru hatlar\u0131yla ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirildi. Bunlar i\u00e7inde Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n Wari \u015fehrindeki do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck Sahra \u00c7\u00f6l\u00fc \u00fczerinden veya Bat\u0131 Afrika sahillerinden \u0130spanya\u2019ya kadar ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacak boru hatt\u0131 ciddi ciddi hayata ge\u00e7irilecek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda do\u011falgaza ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131yla azaltma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sayesinde taleplerinde y\u00fczde 30\u2019luk bir azalma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Fakat bunun hen\u00fcz uygulamas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor ve mutlaka Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Afrika ile azaltmak, en k\u0131sa ve h\u0131zl\u0131 tercihe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Zaten mevcut ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 bu k\u0131tadan temin ediyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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ORTADO\u011eU\u2019DA T\u00dcKET\u0130M FAZLA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Do\u011falgazda Katar, ABD ve Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00fcreticiler oldu\u011fu g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Afrika \u00fclkeleri de bu alanda kendilerinden s\u00f6z ettirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya do\u011falgaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n hacmi 188 trilyon metrek\u00fcp\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Sadece 2021\u2019de \u00fcretim 4 milyar metrek\u00fcp\u00fc ge\u00e7ti. Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, ziraat, so\u011futma ve \u0131s\u0131nma i\u00e7in elektrik ihtiyac\u0131 gibi pek \u00e7ok alanda 4 kat artt\u0131. T\u00fcm \u00fclkeler dahil edildi\u011finde sadece y\u00fczde 6.5\u2019lik n\u00fcfus oran\u0131na sahip ABD, 750 milyar metrek\u00fcp ve Rusya 400 milyar metrek\u00fcp gibi neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7te birlik k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketiyor. \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019da da t\u00fcketim olduk\u00e7a fazla. Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerinde do\u011falgaz t\u00fcketimi n\u00fcfusa oranla y\u00fcksek. \u00d6rne\u011fin Katar\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na 50 bin metrek\u00fcp iken Fransa\u2019da sadece 600 metrek\u00fcp.<\/span><\/p>

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Y\u00dcZDE 40\u2019I \u0130HRA\u00c7<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Afrika\u2019da do\u011falgaz dendi\u011finde ilk akla gelen \u00fclkeler k\u0131tan\u0131n kuzeyindeki Cezayir, Libya, Tunus ve M\u0131s\u0131r, enerjilerinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bu kaynaktan elde ediyor. Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019da ise do\u011falgaz sahalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye alan \u00fclkeler Nijerya\u2019dan sonra Moritanya, Senegal, Mozambik, Tanzanya, Etiyopya ve Angola. K\u0131ta genelinde 19 \u00fclkede do\u011falgaz \u00fcretiliyor. \u00d6zellikle do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretimi gittik\u00e7e \u00f6nemseniyor ve 2000\u2019de 9, 2010\u2019da 15 ve 2018\u2019de 18 \u00fclke elektrik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 bu yolla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 25 olan do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 40 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yine hen\u00fcz 30 Afrika \u00fclkesi elektrik \u00fcretirken, 2021 \u00f6ncesinde t\u00fcm \u00fcretimin y\u00fczde 70\u2019i Kuzey Afrika\u2019da, y\u00fczde 23\u2019\u00fc Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019da, y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fc G\u00fcney Afrika b\u00f6lgesinde ve y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fc de Orta Afrika b\u00f6lgesinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yordu. Cezayir, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Nijerya y\u00fczde 87\u2019lik orana sahipken bunlar dahil di\u011fer 5 \u00fclkeyle toplam \u00fcretimleri y\u00fczde 98 seviyesinde. Yeni do\u011falgaz sahalar\u0131n\u0131n devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131yla k\u0131tan\u0131n d\u00fcnya piyasas\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 8\u2019i ge\u00e7ti. Elde edilen gaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131 ihra\u00e7 ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ayn\u0131 zamanda kendi ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in artan talepler sebebiyle 2012-2022 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Afrikal\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcketimi \u00fcretimlerinden daha fazla oldu.<\/span><\/p>

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ORTAK \u0130MZA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Do\u011falgaz\u0131n petrol yan\u0131nda giderek de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131yla birlikte bunlar\u0131n nas\u0131l ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 konusu g\u00fcndeme geldi. Bu konuda \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck yine Cezayir\u2019in oldu ve Fas \u00fczerinden \u0130spanya\u2019ya, oradan da t\u00fcm Avrupa \u00fclkelerine g\u00f6nderilmek \u00fczere 1050 kilometrelik Ma\u011frip-Avrupa do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131 devreye sokuldu. Do\u011falgaz, her bir \u00fclkenin kendi kullan\u0131m\u0131 amac\u0131yla k\u0131ta i\u00e7inde veya ihrac\u0131 i\u00e7in iki \u015fekilde ta\u015f\u0131nabilirdi. Birincisi, LNG denen likit gaza \u00e7evrilip sat\u0131n alan \u00fclkelere do\u011falgaz ta\u015f\u0131yan tankerlerle pazarlamak ya da gazoduc denen boru hatlar\u0131 ile g\u00f6ndermekti. Nijerya do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131n 1980\u2019lerde \u00f6nem kazanmas\u0131 \u00fczerine \u00f6zellikle Cezayir, 4 bin 128 km\u2019lik k\u0131saca NIGAL veya Trans-Saharan Gas-Pipeline (TSGP), yani B\u00fcy\u00fck Sahra\u2019y\u0131 g\u00fcneyden kuzeye ge\u00e7ecek hatt\u0131 planlad\u0131. \u0130lk anla\u015fma iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda 3 Temmuz 2009\u2019da sa\u011fland\u0131. 2017\u2019de bu ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 sa\u011flayarak bu boru hatt\u0131yla Nijer \u00fczerinden bunu Akdeniz\u2019e, oradan da GASLI ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi boru hatt\u0131yla Sardunya adas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131p pe\u015finden \u0130talya\u2019ya ge\u00e7irecek ve Avrupa piyasas\u0131na s\u00fcrebilecek. Bu projenin maliyeti takriben 35 milyar dolar olarak kabul ediliyor ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k 30 milyar metrek\u00fcp do\u011falgaz ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu hatt\u0131n i\u015fletmesinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 Cezayir petrol ve do\u011falgaz \u015firketi Sonatrach ve Nijerya Milli Petrol \u015eirketi\u2019nde (NNPC) olacak. Ancak Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015fesi. Bir di\u011fer konu da \u00f6zellikle bu ilk te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fcn bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc uygulamaya konulamamas\u0131 sebebiyle 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Fas Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Nijerya ile yeni bir do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131 projesini g\u00fcndeme getirmesi. Cezayir ise bu niyetini her ortamda dile getirdi. 2022\u2019de yeni bir yol haritas\u0131 belirlenerek ortak bir metin haz\u0131rland\u0131. Bu anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131nda Ukrayna-Rusya Sava\u015f\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/span><\/p>

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MOZAMB\u0130K 2 TR\u0130LYON METREK\u00dcPLE \u0130LK SIRADA \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131 k\u0131tan\u0131n kendi ihtiyac\u0131ndan \u00e7ok Avrupa ve Asya\u2019da ba\u015fta Hindistan olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 kabart\u0131yor. Senegal ve Moritanya aras\u0131ndaki Atlas Okyanusu b\u00f6lgesindeki do\u011falgaz kayna\u011f\u0131 ve Mozambik ile Tanzanya a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndaki Hint Okyanusu do\u011falgaz kayna\u011f\u0131 ile ilgili tahminler do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131karsa Afrika\u2019n\u0131n bu kayna\u011fa en fazla sahip \u00fclkeler s\u0131ralamas\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131lacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Buna g\u00f6re Mozambik 2 trilyon 307 milyar, Senegal 778.7 milyar, Moritanya 574.8 milyar, Tanzanya 512.5 milyar, Cezayir 192.6 milyar, M\u0131s\u0131r 192.6 milyar, Nijerya 155 milyar, Angola 143.6 milyar, Libya 102.2 milyar, G\u00fcney Afrika 96.3 milyar, Etiyopya 42.5 milyar ve Fas\u2019\u0131n ise 39.4 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck bir kayna\u011fa sahip. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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BU AY TAMAMLANMASI BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Bat\u0131 Afrika Ekonomik Toplulu\u011fu \u00fcyesi 13 \u00fclkenin ortakla\u015fa benimsedikleri ve Bat\u0131 Afrika Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 (West African Gas Pipeline), Ma\u011frip-Avrupa Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 ya da Afrika-Atlantik Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 da denen Nijerya-Fas do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131. Hatt\u0131n Nijerya\u2019daki do\u011falgaz sahas\u0131ndan ba\u015flay\u0131p sahil boyunca kuzeye do\u011fru ilerleyecek ve genelde kara taraf\u0131nda, bazen de Atlas Okyanusu\u2019na inerek su alt\u0131ndan d\u00f6\u015fenecek hatt\u0131n uzunlu\u011funun 5 bin 660 kilometre ile 6 bin 500 kilometre aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Her ne kadar Cezayir-Nijerya hatt\u0131ndan neredeyse 2 bin kilometre uzun olsa da maliyetinin 20-25 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda tahmin edilmesi, Bat\u0131 Afrika Ekonomik Birli\u011fi \u00fcye \u00fclkelerinin tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n projede yer almas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Her iki do\u011falgaz hatt\u0131n\u0131n Nijerya\u2019y\u0131 Cezayir ya da Fas, hatta her ikisi \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ba\u011flama te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck maliyetler gerektirse de art\u0131k bu konuda \u00f6zellikle Fas Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 anla\u015fmalar 2024 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde tamamlanacak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda Senegal-Moritanya ortak deniz sahas\u0131nda bulunan do\u011falgaz\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kapasiteli olmas\u0131 ve bu hatta ba\u011flanmas\u0131yla birlikte hem t\u00fcm b\u00f6lge hem de Avrupa \u00fclkeleri Rusya do\u011falgaz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ba\u015fka \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yollar\u0131na da kavu\u015facak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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200 M\u0130LYAR DOLARLIK MAL\u0130YET \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Nijerya-Cezayir veya Nijerya-Fas do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131na karar verilmesinden sonra b\u00f6lgede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonomik canl\u0131l\u0131k ya\u015fanacak, binlerce insana istihdam sa\u011flanacak. Bu do\u011falgaz boru hatlar\u0131 yan\u0131nda Do\u011fu Afrika b\u00f6lgesinde de yenilerinin yap\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flananlar dahil toplam 26 bin kilometrelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar Afrika\u2019n\u0131n gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in boru hatlar\u0131 ile \u00f6zellikle Hindistan ve di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ise s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hale gelmesi i\u00e7in 60 farkl\u0131 gaz sahas\u0131nda altyap\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Halen yap\u0131m a\u015famas\u0131 devam edenler ve gelecek y\u0131llar i\u00e7in planlananlarla birlikte 103 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir harcama gerekiyor. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede \u015fu anda hem boru hatlar\u0131 hem de likit gaz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme altyap\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in 200 milyar dolara yak\u0131n bir maliyete ula\u015facak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 ciddi beklentilere sebep oluyor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"avrupanin-umudu-afrika-dogalgazinda","tags":null,"meta_title":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n umudu Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131nda","meta_description":"PROF. DR. AHMET KAVAS","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1733691600Lo37QXSJhX9FnY8.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":30,"name":"AHMET","surname":"KAVAS","email":"prof-dr-ahmet-kavas@gmail.com","slug":"prof-dr-ahmet-kavas","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916002RXDhDXyMw3kEXW.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-24T11:09:13.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:44:44.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":58695,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":58569,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n umudu Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131nda","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. AHMET KAVAS","content":"

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda do\u011falgaza ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131yla azaltma hedefiyle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gaz talebinin y\u00fczde 30 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Fakat bu hedefin hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Afrika ile azaltmay\u0131 tercih etmesi s\u00f6z konusu. \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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D\u00fcnya genelinde enerjiye olan talep her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn tahminlerin de \u00f6tesinde art\u0131yor. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n giderek en \u00f6nemli kaynaklar aras\u0131nda yer almas\u0131, Afrika\u2019y\u0131 Avrupa, Asya ve ABD i\u00e7in adeta vazge\u00e7ilmez bir merkez k\u0131taya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Uluslararas\u0131 enerji \u015firketleri bir an evvel herhangi bir co\u011frafyada \u00e7\u0131kacak ve en k\u00f6kl\u00fc ili\u015fkileri sarsan gerginlikler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeni \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131 \u00fcretmek zorunda kal\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 2022 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019ya sava\u015f ilan\u0131, olabilecek en k\u00f6t\u00fc ihtimaldi ve bir anda t\u00fcm dengeleri sarst\u0131. Y\u00fcksek maliyeti sebebiyle bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc hayatiyet kazanamayan Afrika\u2019n\u0131n hidrokarb\u00fcr boru hatlar\u0131yla ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirildi. Bunlar i\u00e7inde Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n Wari \u015fehrindeki do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck Sahra \u00c7\u00f6l\u00fc \u00fczerinden veya Bat\u0131 Afrika sahillerinden \u0130spanya\u2019ya kadar ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacak boru hatt\u0131 ciddi ciddi hayata ge\u00e7irilecek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda do\u011falgaza ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131yla azaltma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sayesinde taleplerinde y\u00fczde 30\u2019luk bir azalma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Fakat bunun hen\u00fcz uygulamas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor ve mutlaka Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Afrika ile azaltmak, en k\u0131sa ve h\u0131zl\u0131 tercihe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Zaten mevcut ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 bu k\u0131tadan temin ediyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ORTADO\u011eU\u2019DA T\u00dcKET\u0130M FAZLA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Do\u011falgazda Katar, ABD ve Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00fcreticiler oldu\u011fu g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Afrika \u00fclkeleri de bu alanda kendilerinden s\u00f6z ettirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya do\u011falgaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n hacmi 188 trilyon metrek\u00fcp\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Sadece 2021\u2019de \u00fcretim 4 milyar metrek\u00fcp\u00fc ge\u00e7ti. Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, ziraat, so\u011futma ve \u0131s\u0131nma i\u00e7in elektrik ihtiyac\u0131 gibi pek \u00e7ok alanda 4 kat artt\u0131. T\u00fcm \u00fclkeler dahil edildi\u011finde sadece y\u00fczde 6.5\u2019lik n\u00fcfus oran\u0131na sahip ABD, 750 milyar metrek\u00fcp ve Rusya 400 milyar metrek\u00fcp gibi neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7te birlik k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketiyor. \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019da da t\u00fcketim olduk\u00e7a fazla. Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerinde do\u011falgaz t\u00fcketimi n\u00fcfusa oranla y\u00fcksek. \u00d6rne\u011fin Katar\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na 50 bin metrek\u00fcp iken Fransa\u2019da sadece 600 metrek\u00fcp.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00dcZDE 40\u2019I \u0130HRA\u00c7<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Afrika\u2019da do\u011falgaz dendi\u011finde ilk akla gelen \u00fclkeler k\u0131tan\u0131n kuzeyindeki Cezayir, Libya, Tunus ve M\u0131s\u0131r, enerjilerinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bu kaynaktan elde ediyor. Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019da ise do\u011falgaz sahalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye alan \u00fclkeler Nijerya\u2019dan sonra Moritanya, Senegal, Mozambik, Tanzanya, Etiyopya ve Angola. K\u0131ta genelinde 19 \u00fclkede do\u011falgaz \u00fcretiliyor. \u00d6zellikle do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretimi gittik\u00e7e \u00f6nemseniyor ve 2000\u2019de 9, 2010\u2019da 15 ve 2018\u2019de 18 \u00fclke elektrik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 bu yolla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 25 olan do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 40 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yine hen\u00fcz 30 Afrika \u00fclkesi elektrik \u00fcretirken, 2021 \u00f6ncesinde t\u00fcm \u00fcretimin y\u00fczde 70\u2019i Kuzey Afrika\u2019da, y\u00fczde 23\u2019\u00fc Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019da, y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fc G\u00fcney Afrika b\u00f6lgesinde ve y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fc de Orta Afrika b\u00f6lgesinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yordu. Cezayir, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Nijerya y\u00fczde 87\u2019lik orana sahipken bunlar dahil di\u011fer 5 \u00fclkeyle toplam \u00fcretimleri y\u00fczde 98 seviyesinde. Yeni do\u011falgaz sahalar\u0131n\u0131n devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131yla k\u0131tan\u0131n d\u00fcnya piyasas\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 8\u2019i ge\u00e7ti. Elde edilen gaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131 ihra\u00e7 ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ayn\u0131 zamanda kendi ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in artan talepler sebebiyle 2012-2022 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Afrikal\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcketimi \u00fcretimlerinden daha fazla oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ORTAK \u0130MZA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Do\u011falgaz\u0131n petrol yan\u0131nda giderek de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131yla birlikte bunlar\u0131n nas\u0131l ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 konusu g\u00fcndeme geldi. Bu konuda \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck yine Cezayir\u2019in oldu ve Fas \u00fczerinden \u0130spanya\u2019ya, oradan da t\u00fcm Avrupa \u00fclkelerine g\u00f6nderilmek \u00fczere 1050 kilometrelik Ma\u011frip-Avrupa do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131 devreye sokuldu. Do\u011falgaz, her bir \u00fclkenin kendi kullan\u0131m\u0131 amac\u0131yla k\u0131ta i\u00e7inde veya ihrac\u0131 i\u00e7in iki \u015fekilde ta\u015f\u0131nabilirdi. Birincisi, LNG denen likit gaza \u00e7evrilip sat\u0131n alan \u00fclkelere do\u011falgaz ta\u015f\u0131yan tankerlerle pazarlamak ya da gazoduc denen boru hatlar\u0131 ile g\u00f6ndermekti. Nijerya do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131n 1980\u2019lerde \u00f6nem kazanmas\u0131 \u00fczerine \u00f6zellikle Cezayir, 4 bin 128 km\u2019lik k\u0131saca NIGAL veya Trans-Saharan Gas-Pipeline (TSGP), yani B\u00fcy\u00fck Sahra\u2019y\u0131 g\u00fcneyden kuzeye ge\u00e7ecek hatt\u0131 planlad\u0131. \u0130lk anla\u015fma iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda 3 Temmuz 2009\u2019da sa\u011fland\u0131. 2017\u2019de bu ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 sa\u011flayarak bu boru hatt\u0131yla Nijer \u00fczerinden bunu Akdeniz\u2019e, oradan da GASLI ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi boru hatt\u0131yla Sardunya adas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131p pe\u015finden \u0130talya\u2019ya ge\u00e7irecek ve Avrupa piyasas\u0131na s\u00fcrebilecek. Bu projenin maliyeti takriben 35 milyar dolar olarak kabul ediliyor ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k 30 milyar metrek\u00fcp do\u011falgaz ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu hatt\u0131n i\u015fletmesinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 Cezayir petrol ve do\u011falgaz \u015firketi Sonatrach ve Nijerya Milli Petrol \u015eirketi\u2019nde (NNPC) olacak. Ancak Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015fesi. Bir di\u011fer konu da \u00f6zellikle bu ilk te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fcn bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc uygulamaya konulamamas\u0131 sebebiyle 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Fas Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Nijerya ile yeni bir do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131 projesini g\u00fcndeme getirmesi. Cezayir ise bu niyetini her ortamda dile getirdi. 2022\u2019de yeni bir yol haritas\u0131 belirlenerek ortak bir metin haz\u0131rland\u0131. Bu anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131nda Ukrayna-Rusya Sava\u015f\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

MOZAMB\u0130K 2 TR\u0130LYON METREK\u00dcPLE \u0130LK SIRADA \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131 k\u0131tan\u0131n kendi ihtiyac\u0131ndan \u00e7ok Avrupa ve Asya\u2019da ba\u015fta Hindistan olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 kabart\u0131yor. Senegal ve Moritanya aras\u0131ndaki Atlas Okyanusu b\u00f6lgesindeki do\u011falgaz kayna\u011f\u0131 ve Mozambik ile Tanzanya a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndaki Hint Okyanusu do\u011falgaz kayna\u011f\u0131 ile ilgili tahminler do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131karsa Afrika\u2019n\u0131n bu kayna\u011fa en fazla sahip \u00fclkeler s\u0131ralamas\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131lacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Buna g\u00f6re Mozambik 2 trilyon 307 milyar, Senegal 778.7 milyar, Moritanya 574.8 milyar, Tanzanya 512.5 milyar, Cezayir 192.6 milyar, M\u0131s\u0131r 192.6 milyar, Nijerya 155 milyar, Angola 143.6 milyar, Libya 102.2 milyar, G\u00fcney Afrika 96.3 milyar, Etiyopya 42.5 milyar ve Fas\u2019\u0131n ise 39.4 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck bir kayna\u011fa sahip. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

BU AY TAMAMLANMASI BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Bat\u0131 Afrika Ekonomik Toplulu\u011fu \u00fcyesi 13 \u00fclkenin ortakla\u015fa benimsedikleri ve Bat\u0131 Afrika Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 (West African Gas Pipeline), Ma\u011frip-Avrupa Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 ya da Afrika-Atlantik Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatt\u0131 da denen Nijerya-Fas do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131. Hatt\u0131n Nijerya\u2019daki do\u011falgaz sahas\u0131ndan ba\u015flay\u0131p sahil boyunca kuzeye do\u011fru ilerleyecek ve genelde kara taraf\u0131nda, bazen de Atlas Okyanusu\u2019na inerek su alt\u0131ndan d\u00f6\u015fenecek hatt\u0131n uzunlu\u011funun 5 bin 660 kilometre ile 6 bin 500 kilometre aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Her ne kadar Cezayir-Nijerya hatt\u0131ndan neredeyse 2 bin kilometre uzun olsa da maliyetinin 20-25 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda tahmin edilmesi, Bat\u0131 Afrika Ekonomik Birli\u011fi \u00fcye \u00fclkelerinin tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n projede yer almas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Her iki do\u011falgaz hatt\u0131n\u0131n Nijerya\u2019y\u0131 Cezayir ya da Fas, hatta her ikisi \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ba\u011flama te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck maliyetler gerektirse de art\u0131k bu konuda \u00f6zellikle Fas Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 anla\u015fmalar 2024 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde tamamlanacak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda Senegal-Moritanya ortak deniz sahas\u0131nda bulunan do\u011falgaz\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kapasiteli olmas\u0131 ve bu hatta ba\u011flanmas\u0131yla birlikte hem t\u00fcm b\u00f6lge hem de Avrupa \u00fclkeleri Rusya do\u011falgaz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ba\u015fka \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yollar\u0131na da kavu\u015facak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

200 M\u0130LYAR DOLARLIK MAL\u0130YET \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Nijerya-Cezayir veya Nijerya-Fas do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131na karar verilmesinden sonra b\u00f6lgede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonomik canl\u0131l\u0131k ya\u015fanacak, binlerce insana istihdam sa\u011flanacak. Bu do\u011falgaz boru hatlar\u0131 yan\u0131nda Do\u011fu Afrika b\u00f6lgesinde de yenilerinin yap\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flananlar dahil toplam 26 bin kilometrelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar Afrika\u2019n\u0131n gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in boru hatlar\u0131 ile \u00f6zellikle Hindistan ve di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ise s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hale gelmesi i\u00e7in 60 farkl\u0131 gaz sahas\u0131nda altyap\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Halen yap\u0131m a\u015famas\u0131 devam edenler ve gelecek y\u0131llar i\u00e7in planlananlarla birlikte 103 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir harcama gerekiyor. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede \u015fu anda hem boru hatlar\u0131 hem de likit gaz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme altyap\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in 200 milyar dolara yak\u0131n bir maliyete ula\u015facak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 ciddi beklentilere sebep oluyor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"avrupanin-umudu-afrika-dogalgazinda","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1733691600Lo37QXSJhX9FnY8.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1733691600Lo37QXSJhX9FnY8.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n umudu Afrika do\u011falgaz\u0131nda","meta_description":"PROF. DR. AHMET KAVAS","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2025-01-08 06:59:52","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}