{"status":true,"post":{"id":20339,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:50:47","created_at":"2019-05-12T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:50:47.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20339,"is_featured":0,"title":"ABD-\u00c7in ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ya da yeni nesil bir Tukidides Kapan\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Hi\u00e7 bitmeyen Suriye meselesi... S400 krizi... \u0130ran ambargosu... T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018Genelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f Tercihler Sistemi\u2019 program\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma riski...<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7eridekilerin \u00f6tesinde, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131ran sorunlar azalm\u0131yor, art\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi bunlara ABD-\u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki, k\u0131saca \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 meselesi eklendi. <\/span><\/p>

Daha do\u011frusu, iki dev aras\u0131nda zaten var olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alevlendi. \u00dcstelik tam \u2018anla\u015ft\u0131-anla\u015f\u0131yorlar\u2019 denildi\u011fi bir s\u0131rada... \u00c7in\u2019i m\u00fczakereler s\u0131ras\u0131nda verdi\u011fi s\u00f6zlerden d\u00f6nmekle su\u00e7layan ABD, 200 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik tarifeyi 10 May\u0131s\u2019tan itibaren y\u00fczde 10\u2019dan y\u00fczde 25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Karar, ABD\u2019nin resmi gazetesi Federal Register\u2019da yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan twitter hesab\u0131ndan, \u00c7in Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Liu He\u2019nin anla\u015fma yapmak i\u00e7in Washington\u2019a gelece\u011fini ilan etti. Sonra da, \u201cG\u00f6rece\u011fiz bakal\u0131m, ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki verginin ABD\u2019nin kasalar\u0131n\u0131 dolduraca\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00e7ok mutluyum\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Olup biteni \u2018g\u00fcmr\u00fck sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ya da \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 kavramlar\u0131yla ifade etsek de i\u015fin arka plan\u0131 farkl\u0131 i\u015fliyor. Buzda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen k\u0131sm\u0131, ne i\u015f yaparsak yapal\u0131m hepimizi ilgilendirecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck. D\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde birbiriyle s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde rekabet edecek akt\u00f6rler var. Ve bu akt\u00f6rler d\u00fcnyaya ayn\u0131 g\u00f6zle bakm\u0131yor. Benzer \u015fekilde anlam\u0131yor. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca, d\u00fcnya sorunlar\u0131na ortak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretmeleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnyada \u2018uzla\u015fma\u2019 sa\u011flamak giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcrenin bir s\u00fcredir al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ekonomik ve jeopolitik mimarisi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor. Washington Konsens\u00fcs\u00fc bitti. G20 i\u015flemiyor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc yetersiz. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler etkisiz. D\u00fcnya giderek daha kurals\u0131z bir yer haline geliyor. Bir \u015feylerin geride kalmakta oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ama g\u00f6zlerimiz neyin gelmekte oldu\u011funu da hen\u00fcz tam anlam\u0131yla se\u00e7emiyor. Bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme s\u00fcreci, T\u00fcrkiye dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeleri etkileyen ciddi bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans yarat\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi ABD kendi gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tedirgin. G\u00fcvensiz ve tela\u015fl\u0131. 1980\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n temel dinami\u011fini olu\u015fturan \u2018serbest piyasa modeli ile k\u00fcreselle\u015fme\u2019 geride kal\u0131yor. K\u00fcreselle\u015fme art\u0131k bizzat ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u2018stratejik tehlike\u2019 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019nin bir numaral\u0131 \u2018rakip\u2019 ilan etti\u011fi \u00c7in, bir s\u00fcredir ekonomik olarak, daha da \u00f6nemlisi teknolojik olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fte. Ve kendisinin koymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kurallara uyma niyetinde de\u011fil. AB\u2019nin gelece\u011fi soru i\u015fareti. Almanya rahats\u0131z ve aray\u0131\u015fta... \u0130pin ucunun ka\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomik modellerin ve ittifaklar\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ciddi bi\u00e7imde test edildi\u011fi bir \u2018hegemonya sava\u015f\u0131na\u2019 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yeni nesil bir Tukidides Kapan\u0131\u2019na s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyoruz. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 General H.R. Mc Master, 18 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de \u2018Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Strateji\u2019 belgesinin ilan edilmesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, \u201cSo\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitmesiyle ba\u015flayan tatil art\u0131k sona erdi. Jeopolitik t\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131yla geri geldi\u201d derken bu yeni d\u00f6nemi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ilan ediyordu. <\/span><\/p>

Ne olacak bu yeni d\u00f6nemin \u00f6zellikleri derseniz... \u2018M\u00fcltilateralizm\u2019 gidiyor. \u2018Unilateralizm\u2019 geliyor. T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi, \u2018\u00e7ok tarafl\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 geride kal\u0131yor. \u2018Tek tarafl\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 onun yerini al\u0131yor. Ekonomideki \u2018korumac\u0131\u2019 r\u00fczgarlar, siyasette de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k buluyor. Bir d\u00f6nem k\u00fcreselle\u015fmeye bizim gibi \u00fclkelerden gelen ele\u015ftiriler, \u015fimdi k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin merkezindeki \u00fclkelerden geliyor. \u00d6zellikle de Bat\u0131\u2019daki i\u00e7i bo\u015falt\u0131lan, y\u0131pranan orta s\u0131n\u0131ftan... \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Brexit, ABD\u2019de Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi de bu r\u00fczgarlar\u0131n bir izd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc. Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 b\u00f6len g\u00f6\u00e7men kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011fa varan milliyet\u00e7ilik de \u00f6yle...<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, d\u00fcnyada yeni g\u00fc\u00e7ler y\u00fckseliyor. ABD, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve siyasetinin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zme veya d\u00fczen getirme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetme tela\u015f\u0131ndayken, yeni akt\u00f6rler sahne al\u0131yor. Rakamlar ABD\u2019nin tedirginli\u011fini ve tela\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u2018hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r\u2019 nitelikte. Zaferle \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitti\u011fi 1989\u2019da ABD\u2019nin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 5.7 trilyon dolard\u0131. \u00c7in ayn\u0131 y\u0131l sadece 350 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomiydi. Bug\u00fcn ABD 19 trilyon dolarl\u0131k, \u00c7in ise 12 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomi. Bir ba\u015fka ifade ile geride kalan 30 y\u0131lda ABD 3 kat, \u00c7in ise 30 kattan fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Sadece \u00c7in de de\u011fil. Almanya, yeniden bir ekonomik merkez olarak y\u00fckseldi. Ve uzun bir zaman sonra yeniden askeri kapasite in\u015fa etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Palazlanan yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lerin etkisiyle d\u00fcnya yeniden \u015fekilleniyor. Bu d\u00fcnya ticaretine de sistemine de yeni bir ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k getiriyor. \u00dclkeler, yeni bir \u2018pazar pozisyonlanmas\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in adeta zorlan\u0131yorlar. <\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD ise korumac\u0131 bir refleksle \u2018Alemin kral\u0131 benim. Sak\u0131n bir hata olmas\u0131n\u2019 havas\u0131nda... Vakit varken, h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyken aray\u0131 tekrar a\u00e7mak, hi\u00e7 olmazsa kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek istiyor. \u2018\u00c7inliler teknolojimizi \u00e7al\u0131yor\u2019 s\u00f6yleminin pe\u015fine tak\u0131lan yeni g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin arka plan\u0131nda bu var. <\/span><\/p>

Trump, \u00c7in ile bu sava\u015f\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla kazanacaklar\u0131na inan\u0131yor. \u00c7in ise sava\u015fta ABD\u2019den daha az kaybetmeyi planl\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Do\u011frusu, sistemin dinamikleri bak\u0131m\u0131ndan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc manzara, 1900\u2019l\u00fc y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin birbiriyle kap\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an tabloyu an\u0131msat\u0131yor. An\u0131msatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen bir\u00e7ok analist var.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6yle ya da b\u00f6yle... G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde stres artacak. Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 bir hegemonya sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeline ziyadesiyle sahip. Bunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha da fazla hissedece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Kaptan pilot e\u011fitimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli derslerden biri t\u00fcrb\u00fclanst\u0131r. Ve t\u00fcrb\u00fclans kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilk \u00f6\u011fretilen \u00fc\u00e7 kelime ise \u015fudur: <\/span>
\u201cU\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 havada tut!\u201d<\/span><\/p>

TUK\u0130D\u0130DES TUZA\u011eI\u2019NA D\u0130KKAT!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki \u2018hegemonya\u2019 rekabeti tarihte benzer sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Binlerce y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin \u015fehir devletleri Atina ve Sparta aras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi... Hegemonya rekabeti antik d\u00f6nemin iki \u00f6nemli g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc Milattan \u00d6nce 431\u2019de Peloponez Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirmi\u015fti. <\/span><\/p>

Zaman, olaylar ve akt\u00f6rler de\u011fi\u015fse de, bug\u00fcn de i\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fc ayn\u0131: Hakim egemen g\u00fc\u00e7, y\u00fckselmekte olan g\u00fc\u00e7ten korkmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in endi\u015feleniyor. Bu gerginlik y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7 ile hakim olan aras\u0131nda, taraflardan birini kendi iste\u011fi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sava\u015flara ve ittifaklara s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek ad\u0131mlar atmaya itiyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bu karma\u015f\u0131k s\u00fcrecin bir de ad\u0131 var: Tukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131... D\u00f6nemin b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sava\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemleyip kayda ge\u00e7iren tarih\u00e7i Tukidides\u2019e g\u00f6re, ikinci Peloponez Sava\u015f\u0131, Atina\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artmas\u0131 ve bu durumun Sparta\u2019da yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 korku nedeniyle \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Siyaset bilimci Graham Allison, 16. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren geride kalan yakla\u015f\u0131k 500 y\u0131lda k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn y\u00fckselen bir g\u00fc\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 16 vakadan 12\u2019sinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7\u0130N\u2019\u0130N \u0130NCE HESAPLARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD, y\u00fckseli\u015finden endi\u015fe etti\u011fi ve y\u0131lda 375 milyar dolar ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi\u011fi \u00c7in\u2019in onlarca \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcne milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k ek vergi getiriyor. Alttan al\u0131r gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de \u00c7in, ABD\u2019den pe\u015f pe\u015fe gelen hamlelere ilgin\u00e7 kar\u015f\u0131 hamlelerle cevap veriyor. ABD\u2019nin vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilk hamleleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u2018soya fasulyesi\u2019 i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131 bu ilgin\u00e7 hamlelerden birini olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracatta, ilk s\u0131rada yer alan \u00fcr\u00fcnler aras\u0131nda, havac\u0131l\u0131k end\u00fcstrisi \u00f6nemli bir yer tutuyor. Mobil cihazlar da \u00f6yle. Ancak bu \u00fclkeye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracatta ilk s\u0131ray\u0131 soya fasulyesi olu\u015fturuyor. \u00c7in\u2019in soya \u00fczerinden kar\u015f\u0131 hamlesi hayli ince hesaplanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD \u00f6nemli bir soya \u00fcreticisi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131. ABD\u2019nin ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi soyan\u0131n y\u00fczde 56\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na ithal ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019de soya \u00fcreticileri, bir\u00e7ok ba\u015fka tar\u0131m \u00fcreticisi grup gibi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti se\u00e7meni. \u00c7in\u2019in, Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7men- lerinin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hedef almas\u0131, \u2018g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7 siyasetine uzanabilece\u011finin de i\u015faretini veriyor. <\/span><\/p>

E\u011fer Trump y\u00f6netimi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 oyununa devam edecekse, muhtemelen soya fasulyesi \u00fcreticilerine \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rekabet\u00e7iliklerini kaybetmemek i\u00e7in yeni destekler vermek durumunda kalacak. Bu ad\u0131m uluslararas\u0131 alanda dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. ABD\u2019li \u00fcreticiye verilecek destek onlar\u0131 hem G\u00fcney Amerika\u2019daki hem de ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefiki olan \u00f6nemli soya \u00fcreticileri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda avantajl\u0131 konuma ge\u00e7irecek. Onlar da, ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem alma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girecek...<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015fte buyurun size yeni nesil bir Tukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131 senaryosu.<\/span><\/p>

EKONOM\u0130K ARA\u00c7LAR JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K KAZANIMLAR \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DAHA YO\u011eUN KULLANILIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u2018Kaynak sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018kan ve petrol\u2019 gibi pop\u00fcler kitaplar\u0131n yazar\u0131, Prof. Michael T. Klare, son ya\u015fananlar\u0131 \u2018Bu sizin annenizin bildi\u011fi so\u011fuk sava\u015f de\u011fil. Bu her an alev almaya haz\u0131r k\u00fcresel bir \u00e7\u0131ra\u2019 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. Jeopoliti\u011fin So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131ndaki geli\u015fimini en yak\u0131n izleyen isimlerden biri olan Nation Dergisi\u2019nin de yazar\u0131 olan Prof. Klare\u2019in de i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi art\u0131k ekonomik ara\u00e7lar, jeopolitik kazan\u0131mlar i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi \u2018ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ekonomik olman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7me a\u015famas\u0131nda... Huawei \u00f6rne\u011finde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi rakibin, yapay zeka ve bili\u015fim alanlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmesini de engellemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Anla\u015f\u0131lan, bundan b\u00f6yle ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n daha fazla jeo-stratejik bir boyut i\u00e7erdi\u011fine tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131z. \u2018B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131racak. Rakiplerinin i\u00e7 politika s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini daha fazla etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. <\/span><\/p>

\u2018Sava\u015f hali\u2019 ile \u2018ola\u011fan hal\u2019 aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hi\u00e7 kimsenin uydusu olmadan d\u00fcnya y\u00f6r\u00fcngesindeki yerimizi sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rma \u00e7abas\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem kazand\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-cin-ticaret-savasi-ya-da-yeni-nesil-bir-tukidides-kapani","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD-\u00c7in ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ya da yeni nesil bir Tukidides Kapan\u0131","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1118,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20438,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20339,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"ABD-\u00c7in ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ya da yeni nesil bir Tukidides Kapan\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Hi\u00e7 bitmeyen Suriye meselesi... S400 krizi... \u0130ran ambargosu... T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018Genelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f Tercihler Sistemi\u2019 program\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma riski...<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7eridekilerin \u00f6tesinde, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131ran sorunlar azalm\u0131yor, art\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi bunlara ABD-\u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki, k\u0131saca \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 meselesi eklendi. <\/span><\/p>

Daha do\u011frusu, iki dev aras\u0131nda zaten var olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alevlendi. \u00dcstelik tam \u2018anla\u015ft\u0131-anla\u015f\u0131yorlar\u2019 denildi\u011fi bir s\u0131rada... \u00c7in\u2019i m\u00fczakereler s\u0131ras\u0131nda verdi\u011fi s\u00f6zlerden d\u00f6nmekle su\u00e7layan ABD, 200 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik tarifeyi 10 May\u0131s\u2019tan itibaren y\u00fczde 10\u2019dan y\u00fczde 25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Karar, ABD\u2019nin resmi gazetesi Federal Register\u2019da yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan twitter hesab\u0131ndan, \u00c7in Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Liu He\u2019nin anla\u015fma yapmak i\u00e7in Washington\u2019a gelece\u011fini ilan etti. Sonra da, \u201cG\u00f6rece\u011fiz bakal\u0131m, ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki verginin ABD\u2019nin kasalar\u0131n\u0131 dolduraca\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00e7ok mutluyum\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Olup biteni \u2018g\u00fcmr\u00fck sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ya da \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 kavramlar\u0131yla ifade etsek de i\u015fin arka plan\u0131 farkl\u0131 i\u015fliyor. Buzda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen k\u0131sm\u0131, ne i\u015f yaparsak yapal\u0131m hepimizi ilgilendirecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck. D\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde birbiriyle s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde rekabet edecek akt\u00f6rler var. Ve bu akt\u00f6rler d\u00fcnyaya ayn\u0131 g\u00f6zle bakm\u0131yor. Benzer \u015fekilde anlam\u0131yor. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca, d\u00fcnya sorunlar\u0131na ortak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretmeleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnyada \u2018uzla\u015fma\u2019 sa\u011flamak giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcrenin bir s\u00fcredir al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ekonomik ve jeopolitik mimarisi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor. Washington Konsens\u00fcs\u00fc bitti. G20 i\u015flemiyor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc yetersiz. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler etkisiz. D\u00fcnya giderek daha kurals\u0131z bir yer haline geliyor. Bir \u015feylerin geride kalmakta oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ama g\u00f6zlerimiz neyin gelmekte oldu\u011funu da hen\u00fcz tam anlam\u0131yla se\u00e7emiyor. Bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme s\u00fcreci, T\u00fcrkiye dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeleri etkileyen ciddi bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans yarat\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi ABD kendi gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tedirgin. G\u00fcvensiz ve tela\u015fl\u0131. 1980\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n temel dinami\u011fini olu\u015fturan \u2018serbest piyasa modeli ile k\u00fcreselle\u015fme\u2019 geride kal\u0131yor. K\u00fcreselle\u015fme art\u0131k bizzat ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u2018stratejik tehlike\u2019 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019nin bir numaral\u0131 \u2018rakip\u2019 ilan etti\u011fi \u00c7in, bir s\u00fcredir ekonomik olarak, daha da \u00f6nemlisi teknolojik olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fte. Ve kendisinin koymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kurallara uyma niyetinde de\u011fil. AB\u2019nin gelece\u011fi soru i\u015fareti. Almanya rahats\u0131z ve aray\u0131\u015fta... \u0130pin ucunun ka\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomik modellerin ve ittifaklar\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ciddi bi\u00e7imde test edildi\u011fi bir \u2018hegemonya sava\u015f\u0131na\u2019 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yeni nesil bir Tukidides Kapan\u0131\u2019na s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyoruz. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 General H.R. Mc Master, 18 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de \u2018Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Strateji\u2019 belgesinin ilan edilmesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, \u201cSo\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitmesiyle ba\u015flayan tatil art\u0131k sona erdi. Jeopolitik t\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131yla geri geldi\u201d derken bu yeni d\u00f6nemi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ilan ediyordu. <\/span><\/p>

Ne olacak bu yeni d\u00f6nemin \u00f6zellikleri derseniz... \u2018M\u00fcltilateralizm\u2019 gidiyor. \u2018Unilateralizm\u2019 geliyor. T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi, \u2018\u00e7ok tarafl\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 geride kal\u0131yor. \u2018Tek tarafl\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 onun yerini al\u0131yor. Ekonomideki \u2018korumac\u0131\u2019 r\u00fczgarlar, siyasette de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k buluyor. Bir d\u00f6nem k\u00fcreselle\u015fmeye bizim gibi \u00fclkelerden gelen ele\u015ftiriler, \u015fimdi k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin merkezindeki \u00fclkelerden geliyor. \u00d6zellikle de Bat\u0131\u2019daki i\u00e7i bo\u015falt\u0131lan, y\u0131pranan orta s\u0131n\u0131ftan... \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Brexit, ABD\u2019de Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi de bu r\u00fczgarlar\u0131n bir izd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc. Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 b\u00f6len g\u00f6\u00e7men kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011fa varan milliyet\u00e7ilik de \u00f6yle...<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, d\u00fcnyada yeni g\u00fc\u00e7ler y\u00fckseliyor. ABD, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve siyasetinin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zme veya d\u00fczen getirme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetme tela\u015f\u0131ndayken, yeni akt\u00f6rler sahne al\u0131yor. Rakamlar ABD\u2019nin tedirginli\u011fini ve tela\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u2018hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r\u2019 nitelikte. Zaferle \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitti\u011fi 1989\u2019da ABD\u2019nin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 5.7 trilyon dolard\u0131. \u00c7in ayn\u0131 y\u0131l sadece 350 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomiydi. Bug\u00fcn ABD 19 trilyon dolarl\u0131k, \u00c7in ise 12 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir ekonomi. Bir ba\u015fka ifade ile geride kalan 30 y\u0131lda ABD 3 kat, \u00c7in ise 30 kattan fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Sadece \u00c7in de de\u011fil. Almanya, yeniden bir ekonomik merkez olarak y\u00fckseldi. Ve uzun bir zaman sonra yeniden askeri kapasite in\u015fa etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Palazlanan yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lerin etkisiyle d\u00fcnya yeniden \u015fekilleniyor. Bu d\u00fcnya ticaretine de sistemine de yeni bir ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k getiriyor. \u00dclkeler, yeni bir \u2018pazar pozisyonlanmas\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in adeta zorlan\u0131yorlar. <\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD ise korumac\u0131 bir refleksle \u2018Alemin kral\u0131 benim. Sak\u0131n bir hata olmas\u0131n\u2019 havas\u0131nda... Vakit varken, h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyken aray\u0131 tekrar a\u00e7mak, hi\u00e7 olmazsa kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek istiyor. \u2018\u00c7inliler teknolojimizi \u00e7al\u0131yor\u2019 s\u00f6yleminin pe\u015fine tak\u0131lan yeni g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin arka plan\u0131nda bu var. <\/span><\/p>

Trump, \u00c7in ile bu sava\u015f\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla kazanacaklar\u0131na inan\u0131yor. \u00c7in ise sava\u015fta ABD\u2019den daha az kaybetmeyi planl\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Do\u011frusu, sistemin dinamikleri bak\u0131m\u0131ndan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc manzara, 1900\u2019l\u00fc y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin birbiriyle kap\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an tabloyu an\u0131msat\u0131yor. An\u0131msatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen bir\u00e7ok analist var.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6yle ya da b\u00f6yle... G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde stres artacak. Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 bir hegemonya sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeline ziyadesiyle sahip. Bunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha da fazla hissedece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Kaptan pilot e\u011fitimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli derslerden biri t\u00fcrb\u00fclanst\u0131r. Ve t\u00fcrb\u00fclans kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilk \u00f6\u011fretilen \u00fc\u00e7 kelime ise \u015fudur: <\/span>
\u201cU\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 havada tut!\u201d<\/span><\/p>

TUK\u0130D\u0130DES TUZA\u011eI\u2019NA D\u0130KKAT!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki \u2018hegemonya\u2019 rekabeti tarihte benzer sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Binlerce y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin \u015fehir devletleri Atina ve Sparta aras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi... Hegemonya rekabeti antik d\u00f6nemin iki \u00f6nemli g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc Milattan \u00d6nce 431\u2019de Peloponez Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirmi\u015fti. <\/span><\/p>

Zaman, olaylar ve akt\u00f6rler de\u011fi\u015fse de, bug\u00fcn de i\u015fin \u00f6z\u00fc ayn\u0131: Hakim egemen g\u00fc\u00e7, y\u00fckselmekte olan g\u00fc\u00e7ten korkmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in endi\u015feleniyor. Bu gerginlik y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7 ile hakim olan aras\u0131nda, taraflardan birini kendi iste\u011fi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sava\u015flara ve ittifaklara s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek ad\u0131mlar atmaya itiyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bu karma\u015f\u0131k s\u00fcrecin bir de ad\u0131 var: Tukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131... D\u00f6nemin b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sava\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemleyip kayda ge\u00e7iren tarih\u00e7i Tukidides\u2019e g\u00f6re, ikinci Peloponez Sava\u015f\u0131, Atina\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artmas\u0131 ve bu durumun Sparta\u2019da yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 korku nedeniyle \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Siyaset bilimci Graham Allison, 16. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren geride kalan yakla\u015f\u0131k 500 y\u0131lda k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn y\u00fckselen bir g\u00fc\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 16 vakadan 12\u2019sinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7\u0130N\u2019\u0130N \u0130NCE HESAPLARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD, y\u00fckseli\u015finden endi\u015fe etti\u011fi ve y\u0131lda 375 milyar dolar ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi\u011fi \u00c7in\u2019in onlarca \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcne milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k ek vergi getiriyor. Alttan al\u0131r gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de \u00c7in, ABD\u2019den pe\u015f pe\u015fe gelen hamlelere ilgin\u00e7 kar\u015f\u0131 hamlelerle cevap veriyor. ABD\u2019nin vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilk hamleleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u2018soya fasulyesi\u2019 i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131 bu ilgin\u00e7 hamlelerden birini olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracatta, ilk s\u0131rada yer alan \u00fcr\u00fcnler aras\u0131nda, havac\u0131l\u0131k end\u00fcstrisi \u00f6nemli bir yer tutuyor. Mobil cihazlar da \u00f6yle. Ancak bu \u00fclkeye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracatta ilk s\u0131ray\u0131 soya fasulyesi olu\u015fturuyor. \u00c7in\u2019in soya \u00fczerinden kar\u015f\u0131 hamlesi hayli ince hesaplanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD \u00f6nemli bir soya \u00fcreticisi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131. ABD\u2019nin ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi soyan\u0131n y\u00fczde 56\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na ithal ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019de soya \u00fcreticileri, bir\u00e7ok ba\u015fka tar\u0131m \u00fcreticisi grup gibi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti se\u00e7meni. \u00c7in\u2019in, Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7men- lerinin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hedef almas\u0131, \u2018g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7 siyasetine uzanabilece\u011finin de i\u015faretini veriyor. <\/span><\/p>

E\u011fer Trump y\u00f6netimi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 oyununa devam edecekse, muhtemelen soya fasulyesi \u00fcreticilerine \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek vergi art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rekabet\u00e7iliklerini kaybetmemek i\u00e7in yeni destekler vermek durumunda kalacak. Bu ad\u0131m uluslararas\u0131 alanda dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. ABD\u2019li \u00fcreticiye verilecek destek onlar\u0131 hem G\u00fcney Amerika\u2019daki hem de ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefiki olan \u00f6nemli soya \u00fcreticileri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda avantajl\u0131 konuma ge\u00e7irecek. Onlar da, ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem alma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girecek...<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u015fte buyurun size yeni nesil bir Tukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131 senaryosu.<\/span><\/p>

EKONOM\u0130K ARA\u00c7LAR JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K KAZANIMLAR \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DAHA YO\u011eUN KULLANILIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u2018Kaynak sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018kan ve petrol\u2019 gibi pop\u00fcler kitaplar\u0131n yazar\u0131, Prof. Michael T. Klare, son ya\u015fananlar\u0131 \u2018Bu sizin annenizin bildi\u011fi so\u011fuk sava\u015f de\u011fil. Bu her an alev almaya haz\u0131r k\u00fcresel bir \u00e7\u0131ra\u2019 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. Jeopoliti\u011fin So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131ndaki geli\u015fimini en yak\u0131n izleyen isimlerden biri olan Nation Dergisi\u2019nin de yazar\u0131 olan Prof. Klare\u2019in de i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi art\u0131k ekonomik ara\u00e7lar, jeopolitik kazan\u0131mlar i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi \u2018ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 ekonomik olman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7me a\u015famas\u0131nda... Huawei \u00f6rne\u011finde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi rakibin, yapay zeka ve bili\u015fim alanlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmesini de engellemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Anla\u015f\u0131lan, bundan b\u00f6yle ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n daha fazla jeo-stratejik bir boyut i\u00e7erdi\u011fine tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131z. \u2018B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131racak. Rakiplerinin i\u00e7 politika s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini daha fazla etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. <\/span><\/p>

\u2018Sava\u015f hali\u2019 ile \u2018ola\u011fan hal\u2019 aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hi\u00e7 kimsenin uydusu olmadan d\u00fcnya y\u00f6r\u00fcngesindeki yerimizi sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rma \u00e7abas\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem kazand\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-cin-ticaret-savasi-ya-da-yeni-nesil-bir-tukidides-kapani","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD-\u00c7in ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ya da yeni nesil bir Tukidides Kapan\u0131","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1118,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}