{"status":true,"post":{"id":15695,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:00:20","created_at":"2017-01-15T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:00:20.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":15695,"is_featured":0,"title":"4. \u00e7eyrekte yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda, takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda kas\u0131mda y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f yakalamas\u0131, <\/span><span class=\"large\">15 Temmuz menfur darbe giri\u015fiminin etkisiyle, 27 \u00e7eyrek arka arkaya pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekoru sonras\u0131nda, 3. \u00e7eyrekte negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steren T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, 2016\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde tekrar pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Aral\u0131kta sanayi \u00fcretimi hi\u00e7 artmam\u0131\u015f dahi olsa T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 4. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 2.4 ile 2.7 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda y\u00fczde 1.5 ile 2 aras\u0131 bir 4. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinden s\u00f6z edilebilece\u011fi gibi kimi ekonomistler 2016\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 3 ile 4 aras\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini de koruyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu durumda, takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yeni seri GSYH oranlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r ise en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda 2016\u2019y\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.1 ile 2.5 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, 2016\u2019da t\u00fcm hainlikleri bertaraf ederek, y\u00fczde 2.8 ile 3.2 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fimizi dahi ifade etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6nde gelen \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmede zorlan\u0131rken, 27 Ocak\u2019ta, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk de\u011ferlendirmesini yapacak olan uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp, \u2018T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini, mali disiplinini, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 sermaye yeterlili\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r ve kamu risklerini y\u00f6netebilir iken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir notunu korumay\u0131 hak ediyor\u2019 dememiz gerekiyor. Bu noktada, dolar kuru \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fcyen \u2018psikolojik\u2019 k\u0131ska\u00e7tan kurtulmak ad\u0131na, TL\u2019nin reel getirisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmas\u0131, ekonomi y\u00f6netimimizin de \u00f6nceli\u011fi olmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">15 Temmuz hainli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, esnaf\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n, i\u015f d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131n nas\u0131l sa\u011flam durdu\u011funa, bir \u00fclkenin kolay kolay atlamayaca\u011f\u0131 bir travmay\u0131, daha ertesi g\u00fcn d\u00fckkanlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7arak, fabrikada \u00fcretime devam ederek y\u00f6neten bir \u00fclke ekonomisine birlikte \u015fahit olduk. Bu ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 19 Ekim\u2019de teyit eden uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u2019s\u2019in, iki g\u00fcn sonra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme notunu k\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ile son derece ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7en g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine rast gelmesi tesad\u00fcf m\u00fc? 2015 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcnde 3 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa da sonra gerilemi\u015f; ocakta y\u00fckselse de \u015fubat ay\u0131 ile 15 Temmuz aras\u0131 yine 3 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f, 15 Temmuz sonras\u0131 yeniden gerilemi\u015f dolar kuru, y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in normal seyrindeyken, Moody\u2019s\u2019in not indirimi sonras\u0131nda, vah\u015fice kurgulanm\u0131\u015f bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n i\u00e7ine sokuldu.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>KUR \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SA\u011eLAM DURACA\u011eIZ<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Dolar kuru \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u2018kriz alg\u0131s\u0131\u2019 manip\u00fclasyonunu de\u015fifre eden en \u00f6nemli ipucu, piyasa g\u00f6stergelerindeki kopukluk. Dolar kuru, bu derece y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrk tahvillerinin risk primi g\u00f6stergesi olan CDS de\u011feri 300 puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda, 2012 veya 2015 seviyelerine bile gelmemi\u015f ise 2 ve 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil oranlar\u0131 ve Borsa \u0130stanbul 100 Endeksi dolar kurundaki tabloya i\u015faret etmiyor ise T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in bir \u2018kriz alg\u0131s\u0131\u2019 oldu\u011fu iddia edilebilir mi? T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ve hane halk\u0131n\u0131n hassas noktas\u0131ndan bir alg\u0131 manip\u00fclasyonu y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu s\u00fcreci, yabanc\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018vah\u015fi\u2019 temsilcileri ile bizim aram\u0131zda bir \u2018suyun alt\u0131nda nefesini tutma\u2019 m\u00fccadelesi olarak g\u00f6rmemiz gerekiyor. Bizi pani\u011fe sokup, suyun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131z i\u00e7in zorluyorlar. Tersine, suyun alt\u0131nda \u2018nefesimizi tutup\u2019 onlar\u0131n pes etmesine dayanmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, sa\u011flam sinir gerektiren bir \u2018dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 testi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TCMB\u2019YE TAM DESTEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, finans kesimi Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakmamal\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir \u2018yerli ve milli\u2019 olma s\u0131nav\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlardan, piyasa \u00fczerinde m\u00fcspet etkisi olacak bir ad\u0131mdan 20 dakika sonra, hep ayn\u0131 yabanc\u0131 bankalardan, TCMB\u2019nin bu ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 anlams\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131racak raporlar ya\u011f\u0131yor ise buna seyirci kalmak, \u2018vicdani\u2019 bir mesele. 2001 krizinin tetikleyicisi olan bankalar hep sahnede. TCMB ne ad\u0131m atsa, mutlaka bu kurumlar\u0131n raporlar\u0131 ile baltalanacaksa, TCMB\u2019yi bir ba\u015f\u0131na m\u0131 b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131z? TCMB\u2019nin \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018maliye politikas\u0131\u2019 baca\u011f\u0131nda da yaln\u0131z b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, bunun \u2018vicdani\u2019 bedelini sonra \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"4-ceyrekte-yeniden-pozitif-buyume","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"4. \u00e7eyrekte yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":139,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":15794,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":15695,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"4. \u00e7eyrekte yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda, takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda kas\u0131mda y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f yakalamas\u0131, <\/span><span class=\"large\">15 Temmuz menfur darbe giri\u015fiminin etkisiyle, 27 \u00e7eyrek arka arkaya pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekoru sonras\u0131nda, 3. \u00e7eyrekte negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steren T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, 2016\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde tekrar pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Aral\u0131kta sanayi \u00fcretimi hi\u00e7 artmam\u0131\u015f dahi olsa T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 4. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 2.4 ile 2.7 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda y\u00fczde 1.5 ile 2 aras\u0131 bir 4. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinden s\u00f6z edilebilece\u011fi gibi kimi ekonomistler 2016\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 3 ile 4 aras\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini de koruyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu durumda, takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yeni seri GSYH oranlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r ise en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda 2016\u2019y\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.1 ile 2.5 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, 2016\u2019da t\u00fcm hainlikleri bertaraf ederek, y\u00fczde 2.8 ile 3.2 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fimizi dahi ifade etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6nde gelen \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmede zorlan\u0131rken, 27 Ocak\u2019ta, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk de\u011ferlendirmesini yapacak olan uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp, \u2018T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini, mali disiplinini, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 sermaye yeterlili\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r ve kamu risklerini y\u00f6netebilir iken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir notunu korumay\u0131 hak ediyor\u2019 dememiz gerekiyor. Bu noktada, dolar kuru \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fcyen \u2018psikolojik\u2019 k\u0131ska\u00e7tan kurtulmak ad\u0131na, TL\u2019nin reel getirisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmas\u0131, ekonomi y\u00f6netimimizin de \u00f6nceli\u011fi olmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">15 Temmuz hainli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, esnaf\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n, i\u015f d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131n nas\u0131l sa\u011flam durdu\u011funa, bir \u00fclkenin kolay kolay atlamayaca\u011f\u0131 bir travmay\u0131, daha ertesi g\u00fcn d\u00fckkanlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7arak, fabrikada \u00fcretime devam ederek y\u00f6neten bir \u00fclke ekonomisine birlikte \u015fahit olduk. Bu ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 19 Ekim\u2019de teyit eden uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u2019s\u2019in, iki g\u00fcn sonra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme notunu k\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ile son derece ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7en g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine rast gelmesi tesad\u00fcf m\u00fc? 2015 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcnde 3 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa da sonra gerilemi\u015f; ocakta y\u00fckselse de \u015fubat ay\u0131 ile 15 Temmuz aras\u0131 yine 3 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f, 15 Temmuz sonras\u0131 yeniden gerilemi\u015f dolar kuru, y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in normal seyrindeyken, Moody\u2019s\u2019in not indirimi sonras\u0131nda, vah\u015fice kurgulanm\u0131\u015f bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n i\u00e7ine sokuldu.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>KUR \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SA\u011eLAM DURACA\u011eIZ<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Dolar kuru \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u2018kriz alg\u0131s\u0131\u2019 manip\u00fclasyonunu de\u015fifre eden en \u00f6nemli ipucu, piyasa g\u00f6stergelerindeki kopukluk. Dolar kuru, bu derece y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrk tahvillerinin risk primi g\u00f6stergesi olan CDS de\u011feri 300 puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda, 2012 veya 2015 seviyelerine bile gelmemi\u015f ise 2 ve 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil oranlar\u0131 ve Borsa \u0130stanbul 100 Endeksi dolar kurundaki tabloya i\u015faret etmiyor ise T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in bir \u2018kriz alg\u0131s\u0131\u2019 oldu\u011fu iddia edilebilir mi? T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ve hane halk\u0131n\u0131n hassas noktas\u0131ndan bir alg\u0131 manip\u00fclasyonu y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu s\u00fcreci, yabanc\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018vah\u015fi\u2019 temsilcileri ile bizim aram\u0131zda bir \u2018suyun alt\u0131nda nefesini tutma\u2019 m\u00fccadelesi olarak g\u00f6rmemiz gerekiyor. Bizi pani\u011fe sokup, suyun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131z i\u00e7in zorluyorlar. Tersine, suyun alt\u0131nda \u2018nefesimizi tutup\u2019 onlar\u0131n pes etmesine dayanmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, sa\u011flam sinir gerektiren bir \u2018dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 testi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TCMB\u2019YE TAM DESTEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, finans kesimi Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakmamal\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir \u2018yerli ve milli\u2019 olma s\u0131nav\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlardan, piyasa \u00fczerinde m\u00fcspet etkisi olacak bir ad\u0131mdan 20 dakika sonra, hep ayn\u0131 yabanc\u0131 bankalardan, TCMB\u2019nin bu ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 anlams\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131racak raporlar ya\u011f\u0131yor ise buna seyirci kalmak, \u2018vicdani\u2019 bir mesele. 2001 krizinin tetikleyicisi olan bankalar hep sahnede. TCMB ne ad\u0131m atsa, mutlaka bu kurumlar\u0131n raporlar\u0131 ile baltalanacaksa, TCMB\u2019yi bir ba\u015f\u0131na m\u0131 b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131z? TCMB\u2019nin \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018maliye politikas\u0131\u2019 baca\u011f\u0131nda da yaln\u0131z b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, bunun \u2018vicdani\u2019 bedelini sonra \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"4-ceyrekte-yeniden-pozitif-buyume","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"4. \u00e7eyrekte yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":139,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}