{"status":true,"post":{"id":47077,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-01-02 07:51:00","created_at":"2024-01-02T04:51:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-01-02T04:51:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":47077,"is_featured":0,"title":"2024 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Zorlu bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz ve yeni y\u0131la giriyoruz. Geleneksel hale gelen bir sonraki y\u0131l, d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in beklentilerimizi payla\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. D\u00dcNYADA KR\u0130Z YOK, YAVA\u015e B\u00dcY\u00dcME VAR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faizler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flamaya, ticarette ise daralmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken enflasyonlarda \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor ve muhtemelen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2 hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacak. Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler sa\u011flan\u0131rsa 2024\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren faiz oranlar\u0131nda gerileme ve para politikalar\u0131nda gev\u015feme bekleniyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ilk \u00e7eyrekte dura\u011fan, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte beklentilerin iyile\u015fti\u011fi, ikinci yar\u0131da ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2024\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, d\u00fcnya ticaretinde ise y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. 2024\u2019te kriz beklentisi olmamakla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme yine zay\u0131f kalacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. DOLAR, PAR\u0130TELER, EMT\u0130A VE ENERJ\u0130 F\u0130YATLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve para politikalar\u0131nda ikinci yar\u0131dan itibaren gev\u015feme olaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosu i\u00e7inde 2022 ve 2023 y\u0131llar\u0131nda de\u011ferli kalan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetmesi bekleniyor. Euro-dolar paritesi 2024 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 1.12 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve talebin ikinci yar\u0131dan itibaren toparlanmas\u0131 halinde emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 10-15 aras\u0131 kademeli art\u0131\u015flar olabilecek. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 da talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6sterecek. Enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda jeopolitik riskler izlenmeye devam edilecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. 2024 YILININ R\u0130SKLER\u0130 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024\u2019te k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli risk, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler olacak. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f, \u00c7in-Tayvan gerginli\u011fi, \u00f6ncelikli jeopolitik riskler. 2024\u2019te ABD ve Rusya ile AB kurumlar\u0131nda olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nemli se\u00e7im yap\u0131lacak. Se\u00e7imler siyasi riskleri olu\u015fturuyor. Ekonomik alanda en \u00f6nemli risk ise \u00c7in ekonomisinde yava\u015flama ve yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcMEN\u0130N KOMPOZ\u0130SYONU DE\u011e\u0130\u015eECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2024\u2019te \u00f6ncelikli hedef, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanmas\u0131 olacak. Bu hedeflere d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 y\u0131l boyunca s\u00fcrecek. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esi deprem harcamalar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek bir a\u00e7\u0131k verecek ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye katk\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefine ula\u015f\u0131lacak. Ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim yerine bu kez ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. \u00d6zellikle hizmet gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ve ithalat\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131yla cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalacak. En \u00f6nemli g\u00f6sterge ise enflasyon olacak. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 72-75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselmesi beklenen enflasyonda haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren hem baz etkisiyle hem de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalar sonucu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanacak ve y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 38-40 enflasyona ula\u015f\u0131lacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI, FA\u0130ZLER VE D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURLARI \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde Merkez Bankas\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulamaya devam edecek. Y\u00fcksek politika faizi, TL likiditesinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, kredi s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131 ve kredi kartlar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Ancak 2024\u2019\u00fcn yaz aylar\u0131nda enflasyonda hedeflenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Merkez Bankas\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan itibaren faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 indirmeye ba\u015flayabilecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak mevduat ve kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 da ikinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olacak. TL\u2019de kademeli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da s\u00fcrecek. Enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olduk\u00e7a TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da azalacak. 2024 sonuna kadar TL\u2019de y\u00fczde 30 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanabilecek. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N EKONOM\u0130K R\u0130SK POL\u0130T\u0130KALARDA DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M OLMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli risk, uygulanan rasyonel ekonomi politikalar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olacak. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden geri ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131 veya farkl\u0131 politikalar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 halinde enflasyon, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faizlerde yeni s\u0131\u00e7ramalar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak ve T\u00fcrkiye d\u00f6viz dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yine s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girebilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 temkinli, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ise i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki toparlanman\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olacak. \u0130yi seneler dileklerimizle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2024-yili-beklentileri","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1704142800Fe1IyvALkdZKj3R.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":4995,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":47203,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":47077,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2024 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Zorlu bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz ve yeni y\u0131la giriyoruz. Geleneksel hale gelen bir sonraki y\u0131l, d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in beklentilerimizi payla\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. D\u00dcNYADA KR\u0130Z YOK, YAVA\u015e B\u00dcY\u00dcME VAR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faizler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flamaya, ticarette ise daralmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken enflasyonlarda \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor ve muhtemelen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2 hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacak. Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler sa\u011flan\u0131rsa 2024\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren faiz oranlar\u0131nda gerileme ve para politikalar\u0131nda gev\u015feme bekleniyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ilk \u00e7eyrekte dura\u011fan, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte beklentilerin iyile\u015fti\u011fi, ikinci yar\u0131da ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2024\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, d\u00fcnya ticaretinde ise y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. 2024\u2019te kriz beklentisi olmamakla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme yine zay\u0131f kalacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. DOLAR, PAR\u0130TELER, EMT\u0130A VE ENERJ\u0130 F\u0130YATLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve para politikalar\u0131nda ikinci yar\u0131dan itibaren gev\u015feme olaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosu i\u00e7inde 2022 ve 2023 y\u0131llar\u0131nda de\u011ferli kalan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetmesi bekleniyor. Euro-dolar paritesi 2024 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 1.12 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve talebin ikinci yar\u0131dan itibaren toparlanmas\u0131 halinde emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 10-15 aras\u0131 kademeli art\u0131\u015flar olabilecek. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 da talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6sterecek. Enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda jeopolitik riskler izlenmeye devam edilecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. 2024 YILININ R\u0130SKLER\u0130 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024\u2019te k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli risk, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler olacak. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f, \u00c7in-Tayvan gerginli\u011fi, \u00f6ncelikli jeopolitik riskler. 2024\u2019te ABD ve Rusya ile AB kurumlar\u0131nda olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nemli se\u00e7im yap\u0131lacak. Se\u00e7imler siyasi riskleri olu\u015fturuyor. Ekonomik alanda en \u00f6nemli risk ise \u00c7in ekonomisinde yava\u015flama ve yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcMEN\u0130N KOMPOZ\u0130SYONU DE\u011e\u0130\u015eECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2024\u2019te \u00f6ncelikli hedef, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanmas\u0131 olacak. Bu hedeflere d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 y\u0131l boyunca s\u00fcrecek. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esi deprem harcamalar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek bir a\u00e7\u0131k verecek ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye katk\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefine ula\u015f\u0131lacak. Ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim yerine bu kez ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. \u00d6zellikle hizmet gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ve ithalat\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131yla cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalacak. En \u00f6nemli g\u00f6sterge ise enflasyon olacak. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 72-75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselmesi beklenen enflasyonda haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren hem baz etkisiyle hem de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalar sonucu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanacak ve y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 38-40 enflasyona ula\u015f\u0131lacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI, FA\u0130ZLER VE D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURLARI \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde Merkez Bankas\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulamaya devam edecek. Y\u00fcksek politika faizi, TL likiditesinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, kredi s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131 ve kredi kartlar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Ancak 2024\u2019\u00fcn yaz aylar\u0131nda enflasyonda hedeflenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Merkez Bankas\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan itibaren faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 indirmeye ba\u015flayabilecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak mevduat ve kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 da ikinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olacak. TL\u2019de kademeli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da s\u00fcrecek. Enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olduk\u00e7a TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da azalacak. 2024 sonuna kadar TL\u2019de y\u00fczde 30 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanabilecek. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N EKONOM\u0130K R\u0130SK POL\u0130T\u0130KALARDA DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M OLMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli risk, uygulanan rasyonel ekonomi politikalar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olacak. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden geri ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131 veya farkl\u0131 politikalar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 halinde enflasyon, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faizlerde yeni s\u0131\u00e7ramalar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak ve T\u00fcrkiye d\u00f6viz dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yine s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girebilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 temkinli, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ise i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki toparlanman\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olacak. \u0130yi seneler dileklerimizle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2024-yili-beklentileri","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1704142800Fe1IyvALkdZKj3R.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1704142800Fe1IyvALkdZKj3R.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":4995,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}