{"status":true,"post":{"id":47285,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-01-08 08:17:00","created_at":"2024-01-08T05:17:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-01-08T05:17:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":47285,"is_featured":0,"title":"2023\u2019ten 2024\u2019e","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023\u2019te, d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasi olaylar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bir\u00e7ok do\u011fal afet ve \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 olay ya\u015fand\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi sarsan 6 \u015eubat depremleri, \u0130srail-Hamas sava\u015f\u0131 ve Gazze katliam\u0131, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve Azerbaycan-Ermenistan aras\u0131nda Karaba\u011f b\u00f6lgesine ili\u015fkin operasyon, 2023\u2019\u00fcn dikkat \u00e7eken olaylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ekonomik geli\u015fmelere. Haziran ay\u0131na kadar lirala\u015fma stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u2018T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi modeli\u2019 uygulayan ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz stratejisiyle yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 destekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yordu. Ancak haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikle hem TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 hem de Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Ekonomi politikalar\u0131 da komple de\u011fi\u015ferek Ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede faizler reel getiri sa\u011flayacak seviyelere y\u00fckselirken, i\u00e7eride t\u00fcketimi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler uygulamaya konuldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131nda ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle beraber ne olduysa kurlara oldu ve kabinenin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn dolar, TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9, haziran ay\u0131nda da toplam y\u00fczde 30 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Siyasi risk bitmesine, bat\u0131n\u0131n sempati duydu\u011fu ki\u015filerle, yine bat\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru buldu\u011fu politikalara ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu hareketi, ekonomi kurallar\u0131na oturtmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc risk bitti\u011fi ve daha do\u011fru \u015feyler yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na inan\u00e7 olu\u015ftu\u011fu halde TL de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131 birbiri ard\u0131na memnuniyetini dile getiriyordu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ancak sadece s\u00f6zle kal\u0131yorlard\u0131. Rating kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ise sadece g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerle oynayarak vakit kazanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlard\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcksek kurlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu y\u00fcksek enflasyon dalgas\u0131, akabinde de faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ekonomide onar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor bir yara b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bir yandan depremin yaralar\u0131n\u0131n sar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde bunun ya\u015fanmas\u0131 i\u015fi daha da zora sokmu\u015ftu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ENFLASYONDA DALGALANMALAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na\u2026<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Sava\u015flar\u0131n durmas\u0131yla ilgili bir belirti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik sava\u015flar\u0131n devam edece\u011fini varsay\u0131yoruz. Bu durum arz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da tehdit ediyor. O y\u00fczden baz\u0131 hammadde ve ara mamule ula\u015fmada zorluklar ya\u015fanabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ise i\u015fin ba\u015fka bir boyutu. Rusya\u2019ya yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n dozu her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu konuda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de bask\u0131lar yap\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmi\u015f de\u011fil. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonda dalgalanmalar g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bir yukar\u0131-bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 enflasyon verileriyle 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131nda dalgalanmay\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak ger\u00e7ek hareket, 2024 Haziran\u2019dan sonra olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda enflasyon oran\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 9 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Sebebi de hazirandaki sert kur y\u00fckseli\u015fiydi. Bu y\u00fczden 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131ndan itibaren iki ay \u00fcst \u00fcste enflasyon 7\u2019\u015fer puan d\u00fc\u015febilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcksek faiz ve d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir hayli zorlayacak. Buna bir de global resesyonun d\u0131\u015f talebi azalt\u0131c\u0131 etkisini de eklersek, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n pek de kolay ge\u00e7meyece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2023ten-2024e","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1704661200HBUUmTXDDJYyTvB.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2336,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":47411,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":47285,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2023\u2019ten 2024\u2019e","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023\u2019te, d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyasi olaylar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bir\u00e7ok do\u011fal afet ve \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 olay ya\u015fand\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi sarsan 6 \u015eubat depremleri, \u0130srail-Hamas sava\u015f\u0131 ve Gazze katliam\u0131, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve Azerbaycan-Ermenistan aras\u0131nda Karaba\u011f b\u00f6lgesine ili\u015fkin operasyon, 2023\u2019\u00fcn dikkat \u00e7eken olaylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ekonomik geli\u015fmelere. Haziran ay\u0131na kadar lirala\u015fma stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u2018T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi modeli\u2019 uygulayan ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz stratejisiyle yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 destekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yordu. Ancak haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikle hem TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 hem de Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Ekonomi politikalar\u0131 da komple de\u011fi\u015ferek Ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede faizler reel getiri sa\u011flayacak seviyelere y\u00fckselirken, i\u00e7eride t\u00fcketimi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler uygulamaya konuldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131nda ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle beraber ne olduysa kurlara oldu ve kabinenin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn dolar, TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9, haziran ay\u0131nda da toplam y\u00fczde 30 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Siyasi risk bitmesine, bat\u0131n\u0131n sempati duydu\u011fu ki\u015filerle, yine bat\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru buldu\u011fu politikalara ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu hareketi, ekonomi kurallar\u0131na oturtmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc risk bitti\u011fi ve daha do\u011fru \u015feyler yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na inan\u00e7 olu\u015ftu\u011fu halde TL de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131 birbiri ard\u0131na memnuniyetini dile getiriyordu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ancak sadece s\u00f6zle kal\u0131yorlard\u0131. Rating kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ise sadece g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerle oynayarak vakit kazanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlard\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcksek kurlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu y\u00fcksek enflasyon dalgas\u0131, akabinde de faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ekonomide onar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor bir yara b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bir yandan depremin yaralar\u0131n\u0131n sar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde bunun ya\u015fanmas\u0131 i\u015fi daha da zora sokmu\u015ftu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ENFLASYONDA DALGALANMALAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelelim 2024 y\u0131l\u0131na\u2026<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Sava\u015flar\u0131n durmas\u0131yla ilgili bir belirti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik sava\u015flar\u0131n devam edece\u011fini varsay\u0131yoruz. Bu durum arz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da tehdit ediyor. O y\u00fczden baz\u0131 hammadde ve ara mamule ula\u015fmada zorluklar ya\u015fanabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ise i\u015fin ba\u015fka bir boyutu. Rusya\u2019ya yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n dozu her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu konuda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de bask\u0131lar yap\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmi\u015f de\u011fil. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonda dalgalanmalar g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bir yukar\u0131-bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 enflasyon verileriyle 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131nda dalgalanmay\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak ger\u00e7ek hareket, 2024 Haziran\u2019dan sonra olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda enflasyon oran\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 9 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Sebebi de hazirandaki sert kur y\u00fckseli\u015fiydi. Bu y\u00fczden 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131ndan itibaren iki ay \u00fcst \u00fcste enflasyon 7\u2019\u015fer puan d\u00fc\u015febilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcksek faiz ve d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir hayli zorlayacak. Buna bir de global resesyonun d\u0131\u015f talebi azalt\u0131c\u0131 etkisini de eklersek, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n pek de kolay ge\u00e7meyece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2023ten-2024e","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1704661200HBUUmTXDDJYyTvB.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1704661200HBUUmTXDDJYyTvB.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":2336,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}