{"status":true,"post":{"id":24020,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:35:11","created_at":"2020-12-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:35:11.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":24020,"is_featured":0,"title":"2021\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini belirleyecek unsurlar ve beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020\u2019yi Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 etkileri ile tamamlarken, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda da ana belirleyici yine salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadele ve a\u015f\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 olacak. Yan\u0131 s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde reformlar ile fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar i\u00e7in at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. A\u015eI SENARYOLARI VE SALGININ KONTROL ALTINA ALINMASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin performans\u0131nda Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n seyri ve bu kapsamda a\u015f\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 belirleyici olacak. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak iki senaryo bulunuyor. Bunlardan ilki, a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yayg\u0131n ve ba\u015far\u0131 ile uygulanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu senaryo i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyor. \u0130kinci senaryo ise a\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yayg\u0131n yap\u0131lamamas\u0131 ve\/veya a\u015f\u0131lar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamamas\u0131 senaryosudur. Bu senaryoda ise ekonomide dura\u011fanl\u0131k devam edecek. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z ile ayn\u0131 anda uygulanarak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 da k\u00fcresel tedarik\u00e7i olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131racak.<\/span>
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2. 2021 YILI \u0130LK \u00c7EYREK D\u00d6NEM\u0130 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DESTEKLER GEREKECEK<\/strong><\/span>
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Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ikinci dalgas\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren etkili olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak hem yurt i\u00e7inde hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda iktisadi ve sosyal faaliyetlerde kademeli kapatmalar yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6zellikle hizmetler ve perakende sekt\u00f6rleri ile esnaf i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride i\u015fler \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ferken, ihracatta da gerileme ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle en az\u0131ndan 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi sonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek yeni desteklere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor. Kira destekleri, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc destekleri, hibe destekleri ve kamu y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerine uzun s\u00fcreli \u00f6teleme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 talepleri kar\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
3. EKONOM\u0130DE REFORMLAR \u00d6NEML\u0130 OLACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde yap\u0131lacak reformlar 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda en az Covid-19 a\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 kadar belirleyici olacak. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli finansal \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan ekonomide reform taahh\u00fctleri iyimserli\u011fi artt\u0131rd\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimindeki de\u011fi\u015fimin ard\u0131ndan i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ile de isti\u015fare i\u00e7inde ekonomik reform \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ekonomik reformlar i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, kamu kesiminde tasarruf ve faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla yarat\u0131lmas\u0131, bankalardaki k\u00f6t\u00fc kredilerin temizlenmesi, piyasa uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu alandaki reformlar 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda finansal riskleri ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
4. MERKEZ BANKASI VE ENFLASYONLA M\u00dcCADELE<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren enflasyon yeniden art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. Bu nedenle fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadele yeniden \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. Muhtemelen mevcut e\u011filimler i\u00e7inde enflasyon yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda TC. Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamas\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmeli. Bunun i\u00e7in politika faizini daha etkin kullanmal\u0131. Enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015fa b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda ise net d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin negatife d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 yat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Merkez Bankas\u0131 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00f6viz rezervini art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik de ad\u0131mlar atmal\u0131. Net d\u00f6viz rezervinde toparlanma TL\u2019ye g\u00fcven sa\u011flayacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
5. MAKRO G\u00d6STERGELERDE GEL\u0130\u015eMELER EKONOM\u0130 REFORMLARINA VE POL\u0130T\u0130KALARA BA\u011eLI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karacak politikalar ve bunlar\u0131 destekleyecek reformlar \u00f6ncelikli olmal\u0131. Bu alanlara \u00f6ncelik verilmesi halinde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 3-4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalacak, cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/milli gelir oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 2.0 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. T\u00dcFE 2021 sonunda y\u00fczde 10 seviyesine inebilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ekonomiye ve T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanarak kal\u0131c\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi de ba\u015flayabilecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nceli\u011fe al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde ise finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar yeniden artabilecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni <\/span>
finansal \u015foklar ya\u015fanabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131, Covid-19 ile m\u00fccadele ve ekonomide reformlar belirleyecek. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olacak. M\u00fccadele ve reformlarda ba\u015far\u0131 sa\u011flan\u0131rsa ikinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ya\u015fanacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2021de-turkiye-ekonomisini-belirleyecek-unsurlar-ve-beklentiler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2021\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini belirleyecek unsurlar ve beklentiler","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1119,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":24119,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":24020,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2021\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini belirleyecek unsurlar ve beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020\u2019yi Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 etkileri ile tamamlarken, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda da ana belirleyici yine salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadele ve a\u015f\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 olacak. Yan\u0131 s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde reformlar ile fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar i\u00e7in at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. A\u015eI SENARYOLARI VE SALGININ KONTROL ALTINA ALINMASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin performans\u0131nda Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n seyri ve bu kapsamda a\u015f\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 belirleyici olacak. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak iki senaryo bulunuyor. Bunlardan ilki, a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yayg\u0131n ve ba\u015far\u0131 ile uygulanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu senaryo i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyor. \u0130kinci senaryo ise a\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yayg\u0131n yap\u0131lamamas\u0131 ve\/veya a\u015f\u0131lar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamamas\u0131 senaryosudur. Bu senaryoda ise ekonomide dura\u011fanl\u0131k devam edecek. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z ile ayn\u0131 anda uygulanarak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 da k\u00fcresel tedarik\u00e7i olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131racak.<\/span>
<\/span>
2. 2021 YILI \u0130LK \u00c7EYREK D\u00d6NEM\u0130 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DESTEKLER GEREKECEK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ikinci dalgas\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren etkili olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak hem yurt i\u00e7inde hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda iktisadi ve sosyal faaliyetlerde kademeli kapatmalar yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6zellikle hizmetler ve perakende sekt\u00f6rleri ile esnaf i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride i\u015fler \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ferken, ihracatta da gerileme ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle en az\u0131ndan 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi sonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek yeni desteklere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor. Kira destekleri, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc destekleri, hibe destekleri ve kamu y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerine uzun s\u00fcreli \u00f6teleme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 talepleri kar\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
3. EKONOM\u0130DE REFORMLAR \u00d6NEML\u0130 OLACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde yap\u0131lacak reformlar 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda en az Covid-19 a\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 kadar belirleyici olacak. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli finansal \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan ekonomide reform taahh\u00fctleri iyimserli\u011fi artt\u0131rd\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimindeki de\u011fi\u015fimin ard\u0131ndan i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ile de isti\u015fare i\u00e7inde ekonomik reform \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ekonomik reformlar i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, kamu kesiminde tasarruf ve faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla yarat\u0131lmas\u0131, bankalardaki k\u00f6t\u00fc kredilerin temizlenmesi, piyasa uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu alandaki reformlar 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda finansal riskleri ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
4. MERKEZ BANKASI VE ENFLASYONLA M\u00dcCADELE<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren enflasyon yeniden art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. Bu nedenle fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadele yeniden \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. Muhtemelen mevcut e\u011filimler i\u00e7inde enflasyon yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda TC. Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamas\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmeli. Bunun i\u00e7in politika faizini daha etkin kullanmal\u0131. Enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015fa b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda ise net d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin negatife d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 yat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Merkez Bankas\u0131 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00f6viz rezervini art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik de ad\u0131mlar atmal\u0131. Net d\u00f6viz rezervinde toparlanma TL\u2019ye g\u00fcven sa\u011flayacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
5. MAKRO G\u00d6STERGELERDE GEL\u0130\u015eMELER EKONOM\u0130 REFORMLARINA VE POL\u0130T\u0130KALARA BA\u011eLI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karacak politikalar ve bunlar\u0131 destekleyecek reformlar \u00f6ncelikli olmal\u0131. Bu alanlara \u00f6ncelik verilmesi halinde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 3-4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalacak, cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/milli gelir oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 2.0 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. T\u00dcFE 2021 sonunda y\u00fczde 10 seviyesine inebilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ekonomiye ve T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanarak kal\u0131c\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi de ba\u015flayabilecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nceli\u011fe al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde ise finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar yeniden artabilecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni <\/span>
finansal \u015foklar ya\u015fanabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131, Covid-19 ile m\u00fccadele ve ekonomide reformlar belirleyecek. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olacak. M\u00fccadele ve reformlarda ba\u015far\u0131 sa\u011flan\u0131rsa ikinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ya\u015fanacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2021de-turkiye-ekonomisini-belirleyecek-unsurlar-ve-beklentiler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2021\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini belirleyecek unsurlar ve beklentiler","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1119,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}