{"status":true,"post":{"id":24295,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:46:25","created_at":"2021-01-07T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:46:25.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":24295,"is_featured":0,"title":"2021 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken piyasalarda son durum","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Hikmet Baydar<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

De\u011ferli okurlar\u0131m\u0131z, bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip ederek \u00fclkemize yapabilece\u011fi etkilerle birlikte \u00fclkemiz verilerini g\u00fcvenilir kaynaklardan alarak sizler i\u00e7in analiz ettik. Veriler, kimi zaman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, kimi zaman da ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu. Burada amac\u0131m\u0131z, sizlerin kararlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 do\u011fru vermenize katk\u0131da bulunmakt\u0131. Umar\u0131z bu amac\u0131m\u0131za da ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f\u0131zd\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>

H\u0130ZMET SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi zorlu ve bol salg\u0131n haberli bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. S\u00fcre\u00e7 h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam etse de Mart-Nisan 2020 aylar\u0131nda ya\u015fan\u0131lan panik art\u0131k yok. Ancak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin al\u0131nan tedbirler neticesi en b\u00fcy\u00fck yaray\u0131 alan hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciddi kapanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n zamanda bu sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan hibe ve destek program\u0131 sevindiricidir.<\/span><\/p>

Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc istihdam a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir yer tutuyor. O y\u00fczden korunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde i\u015fsizlikte \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015fa neden olabildi\u011fi gibi ciddi sosyal sorunlarla da kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmam\u0131za neden olabilir. O y\u00fczden, bir an \u00f6nce turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu bu zor durumdan kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcretime bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ortalama y\u00fczde 75\u2019lerde olu\u015fan kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 \u00fcretim baca\u011f\u0131nda bir sorun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130hracatta dolar baz\u0131nda bir miktar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olsa da yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda talebin daralmas\u0131n\u0131n bunda \u00f6nemli pay\u0131 var. <\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn tedbirli oldu\u011funu, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>

2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda yerli silah sanayimizdeki geli\u015fmeler, Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131na katk\u0131, Libya ve Katar\u2019a verilen destekler, Karadeniz\u2019de bulunan do\u011falgaz\u0131n \u00f6nemi ve uluslararas\u0131 alanda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ciddi bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu hissettirmesi yeterince analiz edilemedi diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hatta \u00f6yle ki, baz\u0131 yerlerde ABD ile ilgili bir s\u00fcr\u00fc \u00f6nemsiz haberin b\u00f6yle \u00f6nemli milli haberlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7irildi\u011fini bile g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ancak global sermaye bu tarz \u00f6nemli haberleri asla atlamaz.<\/span><\/p>

A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler nedeniyle global borsalar tarihi rekorlar\u0131 denerken bizim milli borsam\u0131z, bu kervana bizim yaz\u0131m\u0131z yay\u0131nland\u0131ktan sonra kat\u0131larak en az\u0131ndan TL baz\u0131nda rekorlar k\u0131rd\u0131. Dolar baz\u0131nda ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 50 y\u00fckselmesi durumunda zirve g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olacak. Bunun i\u00e7in ya d\u00f6vizin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ya da borsan\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi gerekir. <\/span>
Kurlarda oynanan manip\u00fclasyona varan oyunlara kimi zaman TCMB kimi zaman da BDDK \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan m\u00fcdahaleleri g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Yabanc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n TL pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f olduk. Londra\u2019da y\u00fczde 700\u2019lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan TL faizlerini g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

HAMMADDE STOKU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Peki, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 kolay ge\u00e7ecek mi?<\/span><\/p>

2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda hedeflenen cirolar\u0131 yapamayan \u015firketler, hele bir de yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015flarsa, ciddi bir \u00f6deme s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131lar. Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n proaktif davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 sayesinde ciddi bir ekonomik daralman\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f oldu. Sa\u011flanan kredilerle bir\u00e7ok firma nefes alabildi. \u00d6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc inan\u0131lmaz b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. <\/span><\/p>

Ancak, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 nakit dengesizli\u011fi \u00f6telenen bor\u00e7 ve vergilerle 2021 y\u0131l\u0131na ertelenmi\u015f oldu. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ertelenmi\u015f \u00f6demelerle beraber olu\u015fan yeni \u00f6deme tablosunun alt\u0131ndan kalk\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in \u015firketlerin profesyonelce nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesi gerekiyor. Yanl\u0131\u015f al\u0131nan bir kredi, yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131land\u0131rma, yanl\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015f ve sat\u0131nalma modelleri, yanl\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131, firmay\u0131 telafi edilemez <\/span>zararlara g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir.<\/span><\/p>

2021 y\u0131l\u0131 hem \u00f6telenen sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm y\u0131l\u0131 hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki talep canlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle hammadde temininde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi, hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda ciddi oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n olabilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olmaya aday g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Hammadde stoku <\/span>
g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmal\u0131 ve fiyat teklifi verilirken, hammaddenin yerine koyma maliyeti iyi hesaplanmal\u0131. Hesab\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yaparken 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda hem \u00fclkemizde hem global piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin oldu\u011funu dikkate alman\u0131zda fayda var.<\/span>
Unutmayal\u0131m, gelece\u011fi do\u011fru tahmin edip ona g\u00f6re pozisyon alanlar kazan\u0131r.<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n hepimize sa\u011fl\u0131k, huzur ve g\u00fczellikler getirmesi dile\u011fiyle\u2026<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2021-yilina-girerken-piyasalarda-son-durum","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2021 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken piyasalarda son durum","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1069,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":24394,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":24295,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2021 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken piyasalarda son durum","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Hikmet Baydar<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

De\u011ferli okurlar\u0131m\u0131z, bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip ederek \u00fclkemize yapabilece\u011fi etkilerle birlikte \u00fclkemiz verilerini g\u00fcvenilir kaynaklardan alarak sizler i\u00e7in analiz ettik. Veriler, kimi zaman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, kimi zaman da ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu. Burada amac\u0131m\u0131z, sizlerin kararlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 do\u011fru vermenize katk\u0131da bulunmakt\u0131. Umar\u0131z bu amac\u0131m\u0131za da ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f\u0131zd\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>

H\u0130ZMET SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi zorlu ve bol salg\u0131n haberli bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. S\u00fcre\u00e7 h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam etse de Mart-Nisan 2020 aylar\u0131nda ya\u015fan\u0131lan panik art\u0131k yok. Ancak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin al\u0131nan tedbirler neticesi en b\u00fcy\u00fck yaray\u0131 alan hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciddi kapanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n zamanda bu sekt\u00f6re y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan hibe ve destek program\u0131 sevindiricidir.<\/span><\/p>

Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc istihdam a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir yer tutuyor. O y\u00fczden korunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde i\u015fsizlikte \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015fa neden olabildi\u011fi gibi ciddi sosyal sorunlarla da kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmam\u0131za neden olabilir. O y\u00fczden, bir an \u00f6nce turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu bu zor durumdan kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcretime bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ortalama y\u00fczde 75\u2019lerde olu\u015fan kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 \u00fcretim baca\u011f\u0131nda bir sorun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130hracatta dolar baz\u0131nda bir miktar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olsa da yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda talebin daralmas\u0131n\u0131n bunda \u00f6nemli pay\u0131 var. <\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn tedbirli oldu\u011funu, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>

2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda yerli silah sanayimizdeki geli\u015fmeler, Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131na katk\u0131, Libya ve Katar\u2019a verilen destekler, Karadeniz\u2019de bulunan do\u011falgaz\u0131n \u00f6nemi ve uluslararas\u0131 alanda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ciddi bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu hissettirmesi yeterince analiz edilemedi diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hatta \u00f6yle ki, baz\u0131 yerlerde ABD ile ilgili bir s\u00fcr\u00fc \u00f6nemsiz haberin b\u00f6yle \u00f6nemli milli haberlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7irildi\u011fini bile g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ancak global sermaye bu tarz \u00f6nemli haberleri asla atlamaz.<\/span><\/p>

A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler nedeniyle global borsalar tarihi rekorlar\u0131 denerken bizim milli borsam\u0131z, bu kervana bizim yaz\u0131m\u0131z yay\u0131nland\u0131ktan sonra kat\u0131larak en az\u0131ndan TL baz\u0131nda rekorlar k\u0131rd\u0131. Dolar baz\u0131nda ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 50 y\u00fckselmesi durumunda zirve g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olacak. Bunun i\u00e7in ya d\u00f6vizin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ya da borsan\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi gerekir. <\/span>
Kurlarda oynanan manip\u00fclasyona varan oyunlara kimi zaman TCMB kimi zaman da BDDK \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan m\u00fcdahaleleri g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Yabanc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n TL pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f olduk. Londra\u2019da y\u00fczde 700\u2019lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan TL faizlerini g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

HAMMADDE STOKU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Peki, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 kolay ge\u00e7ecek mi?<\/span><\/p>

2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda hedeflenen cirolar\u0131 yapamayan \u015firketler, hele bir de yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015flarsa, ciddi bir \u00f6deme s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131lar. Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n proaktif davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 sayesinde ciddi bir ekonomik daralman\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f oldu. Sa\u011flanan kredilerle bir\u00e7ok firma nefes alabildi. \u00d6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc inan\u0131lmaz b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. <\/span><\/p>

Ancak, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 nakit dengesizli\u011fi \u00f6telenen bor\u00e7 ve vergilerle 2021 y\u0131l\u0131na ertelenmi\u015f oldu. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ertelenmi\u015f \u00f6demelerle beraber olu\u015fan yeni \u00f6deme tablosunun alt\u0131ndan kalk\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in \u015firketlerin profesyonelce nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesi gerekiyor. Yanl\u0131\u015f al\u0131nan bir kredi, yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131land\u0131rma, yanl\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015f ve sat\u0131nalma modelleri, yanl\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131, firmay\u0131 telafi edilemez <\/span>zararlara g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir.<\/span><\/p>

2021 y\u0131l\u0131 hem \u00f6telenen sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm y\u0131l\u0131 hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki talep canlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle hammadde temininde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi, hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda ciddi oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n olabilece\u011fi bir y\u0131l olmaya aday g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Hammadde stoku <\/span>
g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmal\u0131 ve fiyat teklifi verilirken, hammaddenin yerine koyma maliyeti iyi hesaplanmal\u0131. Hesab\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yaparken 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda hem \u00fclkemizde hem global piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin oldu\u011funu dikkate alman\u0131zda fayda var.<\/span>
Unutmayal\u0131m, gelece\u011fi do\u011fru tahmin edip ona g\u00f6re pozisyon alanlar kazan\u0131r.<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n hepimize sa\u011fl\u0131k, huzur ve g\u00fczellikler getirmesi dile\u011fiyle\u2026<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2021-yilina-girerken-piyasalarda-son-durum","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2021 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken piyasalarda son durum","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1069,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}