{"status":true,"post":{"id":21228,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:05:16","created_at":"2019-12-12T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:05:16.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21228,"is_featured":0,"title":"2019\u2019da ekonomi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019u geride b\u0131rakmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde, olduk\u00e7a hareketli ge\u00e7en bu y\u0131l\u0131n bir ekonomik muhasebesini yapal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisiyle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. 2019, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kur \u015foku sonras\u0131 makro ekonomik istikrar\u0131n yeniden sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorlu bir y\u0131l olarak ak\u0131llarda kalacak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomik dengelenme s\u00fcrecinin en \u00f6nemli sac ayaklar\u0131ndan olan enflasyonda tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131. Enflasyon, eyl\u00fcl ve ekim aylar\u0131nda tek haneli rakamlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Baz etkisiyle birlikte kas\u0131mda yeniden \u00e7ift haneli rakamlara y\u00fckselen enflasyonun, 2019\u2019u y\u00fczde 11 civar\u0131nda kapatmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan TL\u2019yi daha rekabet\u00e7i seviyelere getirdi. Bu sayede \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ihracat rakamlar\u0131nda hissedilir oranlarda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6te yandan ekonominin daralmas\u0131yla birlikte ithal ara mallar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131na olan talep azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ithalat h\u0131zla gerilemi\u015fti. Bu sayede y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 pozitife d\u00f6nerken, bir taraftan da cari fazla vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. D\u0131\u015f ticaretteki bu pozitif geli\u015fme, yap\u0131sal bir ilerlemeden ziyade d\u00f6nemsel bir durumdu. Ekonomik aktivitenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte ithalat artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6te yandan k\u00fcresel ekonominin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak ihracattaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyreklere g\u00f6re geriledi. Sonu\u00e7ta, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etkisi negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019un ilk iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daralan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte hanehalk\u0131 ve kamunun t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131lar\u0131yla pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fc\u015fen faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ve jeopolitik risklerin yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra baz etkisinin de devreye girecek olmas\u0131yla birlikte d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5\u2019e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. B\u00f6ylece y\u0131l\u0131 ortalamada hafif de olsa pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131, potansiyelimizin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalsa da bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumunun T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 2-3 oran\u0131nda daralma ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ettiklerini unutmayal\u0131m. \u0130\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn canlanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan halen istenen seviyelere gelinmemi\u015f olsa da enflasyon, cari<\/span><span class=\"large\">denge ve kur istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ekonomik dengelenmeye dair \u00f6nemli bir mesafe kat edildi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Tabii ki ekonomide her \u015fey d\u00f6rt d\u00f6rtl\u00fck de\u011fil, ancak sene ba\u015f\u0131ndaki karamsar havan\u0131n da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 2020\u2019ye daha moralli ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir ger\u00e7ek. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r g\u00fcven endeksi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f rakamlar\u0131 gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler de bu durumu do\u011fruluyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomiye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise y\u0131la damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran hadisenin, a\u00e7\u0131k ara ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel ticaret hacminin daralmas\u0131na ve sanayi \u00fcretiminin h\u0131z kaybetmesine neden oldu. Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131, sadece ABD\u2019de ve \u00c7in\u2019de de\u011fil, bir\u00e7ok G20 \u00fclkesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatt\u0131. Almanya, adeta resesyonun k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/span><span class=\"large\">IMF, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n planlar\u0131n\u0131 allak bullak etti. Finans piyasalar\u0131, 2019\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131nda Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l faizleri ne kadar art\u0131rabilece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Fed, faizleri art\u0131rmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun, \u00fc\u00e7 kez indirmek durumunda kald\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da zaten negatif olan faizleri bir kademe daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimleri, TCMB\u2019nin de faizleri tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve agresif olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Brexit \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya gibi G\u00fcney Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde ya\u015fanan siyasi belirsizlikler, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret partnerimiz olan AB ekonomisini derinden etkiledi. Almanya, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya gibi baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa \u00fclkelerine y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 10 ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ihracat, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz seneye k\u0131yasla azald\u0131. Kur \u015fokundan sonra TL daha rekabet\u00e7i seviyelere gelmi\u015f olsa da Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan yava\u015flama ihracat rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek oranlarda artmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019da-ekonomi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019\u2019da ekonomi","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1081,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21327,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21228,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2019\u2019da ekonomi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019u geride b\u0131rakmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde, olduk\u00e7a hareketli ge\u00e7en bu y\u0131l\u0131n bir ekonomik muhasebesini yapal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisiyle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. 2019, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kur \u015foku sonras\u0131 makro ekonomik istikrar\u0131n yeniden sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorlu bir y\u0131l olarak ak\u0131llarda kalacak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomik dengelenme s\u00fcrecinin en \u00f6nemli sac ayaklar\u0131ndan olan enflasyonda tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131. Enflasyon, eyl\u00fcl ve ekim aylar\u0131nda tek haneli rakamlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Baz etkisiyle birlikte kas\u0131mda yeniden \u00e7ift haneli rakamlara y\u00fckselen enflasyonun, 2019\u2019u y\u00fczde 11 civar\u0131nda kapatmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan TL\u2019yi daha rekabet\u00e7i seviyelere getirdi. Bu sayede \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ihracat rakamlar\u0131nda hissedilir oranlarda art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6te yandan ekonominin daralmas\u0131yla birlikte ithal ara mallar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131na olan talep azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ithalat h\u0131zla gerilemi\u015fti. Bu sayede y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 pozitife d\u00f6nerken, bir taraftan da cari fazla vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. D\u0131\u015f ticaretteki bu pozitif geli\u015fme, yap\u0131sal bir ilerlemeden ziyade d\u00f6nemsel bir durumdu. Ekonomik aktivitenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte ithalat artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6te yandan k\u00fcresel ekonominin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak ihracattaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyreklere g\u00f6re geriledi. Sonu\u00e7ta, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etkisi negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019un ilk iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daralan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte hanehalk\u0131 ve kamunun t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131lar\u0131yla pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fc\u015fen faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ve jeopolitik risklerin yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra baz etkisinin de devreye girecek olmas\u0131yla birlikte d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5\u2019e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. B\u00f6ylece y\u0131l\u0131 ortalamada hafif de olsa pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131, potansiyelimizin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalsa da bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumunun T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 2-3 oran\u0131nda daralma ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ettiklerini unutmayal\u0131m. \u0130\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn canlanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan halen istenen seviyelere gelinmemi\u015f olsa da enflasyon, cari<\/span><span class=\"large\">denge ve kur istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ekonomik dengelenmeye dair \u00f6nemli bir mesafe kat edildi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Tabii ki ekonomide her \u015fey d\u00f6rt d\u00f6rtl\u00fck de\u011fil, ancak sene ba\u015f\u0131ndaki karamsar havan\u0131n da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 2020\u2019ye daha moralli ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir ger\u00e7ek. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r g\u00fcven endeksi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f rakamlar\u0131 gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler de bu durumu do\u011fruluyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomiye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise y\u0131la damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran hadisenin, a\u00e7\u0131k ara ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel ticaret hacminin daralmas\u0131na ve sanayi \u00fcretiminin h\u0131z kaybetmesine neden oldu. Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131, sadece ABD\u2019de ve \u00c7in\u2019de de\u011fil, bir\u00e7ok G20 \u00fclkesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatt\u0131. Almanya, adeta resesyonun k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/span><span class=\"large\">IMF, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n planlar\u0131n\u0131 allak bullak etti. Finans piyasalar\u0131, 2019\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131nda Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l faizleri ne kadar art\u0131rabilece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Fed, faizleri art\u0131rmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun, \u00fc\u00e7 kez indirmek durumunda kald\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da zaten negatif olan faizleri bir kademe daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimleri, TCMB\u2019nin de faizleri tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve agresif olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Brexit \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya gibi G\u00fcney Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde ya\u015fanan siyasi belirsizlikler, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret partnerimiz olan AB ekonomisini derinden etkiledi. Almanya, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya gibi baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa \u00fclkelerine y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 10 ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ihracat, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz seneye k\u0131yasla azald\u0131. Kur \u015fokundan sonra TL daha rekabet\u00e7i seviyelere gelmi\u015f olsa da Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan yava\u015flama ihracat rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek oranlarda artmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019da-ekonomi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019\u2019da ekonomi","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1081,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}