{"status":true,"post":{"id":19792,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:40:09","created_at":"2019-01-20T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:40:09.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19792,"is_featured":0,"title":"2019\u2019da durgunluk olur mu?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Baz\u0131 veriler piyasadaki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri a\u00e7\u0131klarken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 gelecekle ilgili tahminlerimizi g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmemizi sa\u011flar. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada piyasa kararlar\u0131nda psikoloji inkar edilemeyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6neme sahip. Ekonomi d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7mekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 insan davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, benzer olaylarda farkl\u0131 tepkilerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na da yol a\u00e7ar. \u00d6rne\u011fin baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin paras\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybederken, borsalar\u0131 o de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi edecek kadar y\u00fckselerek adeta d\u00f6viz baz\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131na izin vermez. Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde de o \u00fclke paras\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybederken borsas\u0131 ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda kendi paras\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bile de\u011fer yitirebilir.<\/span><\/p>

Piyasalarda \u2018s\u00fcr\u00fc psikolojisi\u2019 denilen hadise, ki\u015fi ve kurumlar\u0131n birbirlerinden etkilenerek bazen mant\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile olabilen benzer y\u00f6nde davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder. Bu davran\u0131\u015flar adeta bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m gibi piyasalar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irebilir ve ekonomik taban\u0131 olmayan agresif hareketlere yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/span><\/p>

PS\u0130KOLOJ\u0130 \u0130\u015e\u0130N MERKEZ\u0130NDE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Konumuz 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda durgunlu\u011fun olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131. Psikoloji ise bu i\u015fin merkezinde yer al\u0131r. BOFA ML anketinde fon y\u00f6neticilerinin 2019\u2019da bir ekonomik resesyon bekledikleri belirlenmi\u015f. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 ise global b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2019\u2019da zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n global hisse senedi ba\u015f stratejisti Peter Oppenheimer, 2019\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin hi\u00e7birinde resesyon beklemedi\u011fini, ancak ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da k\u00e2rlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekledi\u011fini belirtmi\u015f. Keskin bir yava\u015flama bekledi\u011fini ifade etmeden de ge\u00e7ememi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

SEKT\u00d6RLER\u0130N C\u0130RO SIKINTISI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Yurti\u00e7inde verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u015fu tabloyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz: T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re takvim etkilendirilmi\u015f sabit fiyatlarla, Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.3 azalm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

Yine T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re Kas\u0131m 2018 toplam ciro de\u011fi\u015fimi bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15.4 ve enflasyonun alt\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f, Ekim 2018\u2019e g\u00f6re de y\u00fczde 4.6 azalma var. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 23.2, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 22.7 ve ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde enflasyonun alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.6 art\u0131\u015f, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ise y\u00fczde 1.1 azalma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00f6nemli ciro sorunu ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

AKILCI PAZARLAMA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Sanayi \u00fcretimi ise Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019de, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.5 azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130malat sanayinde azalma y\u00fczde 7.1. Son olarak da ihracat miktar endeksinin Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 12.7 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ithalat miktar endeksinin de y\u00fczde 22.5 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani ithalattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, sanayi \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve i\u00e7 talepte ciddi bir azalma olabilece\u011finin sinyallerini veriyor.<\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sacas\u0131 veriler, global durgunluktan etkilenmekte oldu\u011fumuzu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterirken, bizlerin nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in ak\u0131lc\u0131 pazarlama politikalar\u0131 \u00fcretmemizin \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu da ak\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131karmamam\u0131z gerekir.<\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer yandan; \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir konu daha var. ABD, dolar baz\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k vererek ayakta durabilen bir \u00fclke. O y\u00fczden d\u00fcnyada en fazla yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u00fclke de ABD. Bu konudaki olumsuz geli\u015fmeler hem ABD\u2019de hem de global piyasalarda krizi tetikleyebilir. <\/span><\/p>

VER\u0130LER\u0130 \u0130Y\u0130 OKUYAN C\u0130DD\u0130 FIRSATLAR YAKALAYAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eu haberi iyi okuyal\u0131m: \u201cRhodium Group taraf\u0131ndan derlenen verilere g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019den ABD\u2019ye do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2017 ve 2016\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. ABD\u2019ye 2016\u2019da 46 milyar dolar, 2017\u2019de 29 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan \u00c7in, 2018\u2019de ise sadece 4.8 milyar dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 8 milyar dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. (http:\/\/www.foreks.com)\u201d<\/span><\/p>

Bu haberle ABD ekonomisinin ciddi bir risk i\u00e7ermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in bu davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da izlemesi durumunda ABD i\u00e7erisinde ciddi bir enflasyon riski olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtebiliriz. <\/span>
Son s\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz; verileri iyi okuyup do\u011fru hamle yapan, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ciddi f\u0131rsatlar yakalayabilir. <\/span>
Ama do\u011fru okursa\u2026<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019da-durgunluk-olur-mu","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019\u2019da durgunluk olur mu?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":96,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19891,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19792,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2019\u2019da durgunluk olur mu?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Baz\u0131 veriler piyasadaki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri a\u00e7\u0131klarken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 gelecekle ilgili tahminlerimizi g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmemizi sa\u011flar. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada piyasa kararlar\u0131nda psikoloji inkar edilemeyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6neme sahip. Ekonomi d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7mekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 insan davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, benzer olaylarda farkl\u0131 tepkilerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na da yol a\u00e7ar. \u00d6rne\u011fin baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin paras\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybederken, borsalar\u0131 o de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi edecek kadar y\u00fckselerek adeta d\u00f6viz baz\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131na izin vermez. Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde de o \u00fclke paras\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybederken borsas\u0131 ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda kendi paras\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bile de\u011fer yitirebilir.<\/span><\/p>

Piyasalarda \u2018s\u00fcr\u00fc psikolojisi\u2019 denilen hadise, ki\u015fi ve kurumlar\u0131n birbirlerinden etkilenerek bazen mant\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile olabilen benzer y\u00f6nde davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder. Bu davran\u0131\u015flar adeta bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m gibi piyasalar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irebilir ve ekonomik taban\u0131 olmayan agresif hareketlere yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/span><\/p>

PS\u0130KOLOJ\u0130 \u0130\u015e\u0130N MERKEZ\u0130NDE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Konumuz 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda durgunlu\u011fun olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131. Psikoloji ise bu i\u015fin merkezinde yer al\u0131r. BOFA ML anketinde fon y\u00f6neticilerinin 2019\u2019da bir ekonomik resesyon bekledikleri belirlenmi\u015f. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 ise global b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2019\u2019da zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n global hisse senedi ba\u015f stratejisti Peter Oppenheimer, 2019\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin hi\u00e7birinde resesyon beklemedi\u011fini, ancak ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da k\u00e2rlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekledi\u011fini belirtmi\u015f. Keskin bir yava\u015flama bekledi\u011fini ifade etmeden de ge\u00e7ememi\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

SEKT\u00d6RLER\u0130N C\u0130RO SIKINTISI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Yurti\u00e7inde verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u015fu tabloyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz: T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re takvim etkilendirilmi\u015f sabit fiyatlarla, Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.3 azalm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>

Yine T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019e g\u00f6re Kas\u0131m 2018 toplam ciro de\u011fi\u015fimi bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15.4 ve enflasyonun alt\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f, Ekim 2018\u2019e g\u00f6re de y\u00fczde 4.6 azalma var. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 23.2, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 22.7 ve ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde enflasyonun alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.6 art\u0131\u015f, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ise y\u00fczde 1.1 azalma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00f6nemli ciro sorunu ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

AKILCI PAZARLAMA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Sanayi \u00fcretimi ise Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019de, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.5 azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130malat sanayinde azalma y\u00fczde 7.1. Son olarak da ihracat miktar endeksinin Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 12.7 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ithalat miktar endeksinin de y\u00fczde 22.5 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani ithalattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, sanayi \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve i\u00e7 talepte ciddi bir azalma olabilece\u011finin sinyallerini veriyor.<\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sacas\u0131 veriler, global durgunluktan etkilenmekte oldu\u011fumuzu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterirken, bizlerin nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in ak\u0131lc\u0131 pazarlama politikalar\u0131 \u00fcretmemizin \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu da ak\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131karmamam\u0131z gerekir.<\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer yandan; \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir konu daha var. ABD, dolar baz\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k vererek ayakta durabilen bir \u00fclke. O y\u00fczden d\u00fcnyada en fazla yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u00fclke de ABD. Bu konudaki olumsuz geli\u015fmeler hem ABD\u2019de hem de global piyasalarda krizi tetikleyebilir. <\/span><\/p>

VER\u0130LER\u0130 \u0130Y\u0130 OKUYAN C\u0130DD\u0130 FIRSATLAR YAKALAYAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eu haberi iyi okuyal\u0131m: \u201cRhodium Group taraf\u0131ndan derlenen verilere g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019den ABD\u2019ye do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2017 ve 2016\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. ABD\u2019ye 2016\u2019da 46 milyar dolar, 2017\u2019de 29 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan \u00c7in, 2018\u2019de ise sadece 4.8 milyar dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 8 milyar dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. (http:\/\/www.foreks.com)\u201d<\/span><\/p>

Bu haberle ABD ekonomisinin ciddi bir risk i\u00e7ermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in bu davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da izlemesi durumunda ABD i\u00e7erisinde ciddi bir enflasyon riski olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtebiliriz. <\/span>
Son s\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz; verileri iyi okuyup do\u011fru hamle yapan, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ciddi f\u0131rsatlar yakalayabilir. <\/span>
Ama do\u011fru okursa\u2026<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019da-durgunluk-olur-mu","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019\u2019da durgunluk olur mu?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":96,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}