{"status":true,"post":{"id":19874,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:41:04","created_at":"2019-02-03T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:41:04.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19874,"is_featured":0,"title":"2019 ihracat\u0131nda riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Ekonomide uygulanan dengelenme politikalar\u0131 ile 2019\u2019da i\u00e7 talep s\u0131n\u0131rlanmaya devam edecek. Bu nedenle ihracat, firmalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu olacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ihracata ili\u015fkin 2019 risklerini ve f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span><\/p>

1 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE YAVA\u015eLAMA MAL TALEB\u0130NDEK\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DE SINIRLAYACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 3.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019ye iniyor. ABD\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenirken, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 1.8 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e inece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerde yava\u015flama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihra\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik talepteki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak.<\/span><\/p>

2 - D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 5 \u0130NECEK, \u0130HRACATTA REKABET ARTACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin ise 2019\u2019da miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.6 geni\u015flemesi beklenirken, petrol, emtia ve mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dura\u011fanla\u015fma ile birlikte de\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi ve 19.68 trilyon dolara ula\u015fabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama ve korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri mal ticaretindeki geni\u015flemeyi de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u00fcresel ihracat performans\u0131n\u0131n 2017 ve 2018\u2019in alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130\u015fte bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir veri olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 rekabet artacak.<\/span><\/p>

3 - ABD VE \u00c7\u0130N T\u0130CARET M\u00dcZAKERELER\u0130NDE ANLA\u015eAMAZLAR \u0130SE KORUMACILIK SERTLE\u015eECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da d\u00fcnya ticareti \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkili olacak en \u00f6nemli risk, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticari korumac\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi. Her iki \u00fclke 1 Mart\u2019a kadar ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek anla\u015fma arayacak. Ancak anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 halinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ticaretin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kapsayacak ilave g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri uygulanmas\u0131 riski var. Bu riskin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri uygulanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak. <\/span><\/p>

4 - B\u00dcY\u00dcK BR\u0130TANYA\u2019NIN AB\u2019DEN NASIL AYRILACA\u011eI \u00d6NEML\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya ile AB aras\u0131nda anla\u015fmas\u0131z bir ayr\u0131l\u0131k ya\u015fanmas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli riski olu\u015fturuyor. 2019 mart ay\u0131na kadar iki taraf aras\u0131nda s\u00fcre\u00e7te ilerleme sa\u011flanamaz ise anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131l\u0131k ihtimali art\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n AB\u2019den anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nce B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n sonra AB\u2019nin ve de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaretini olumsuz etkileyecek. <\/span><\/p>

5 - EURO-DOLAR PAR\u0130TES\u0130NDE HEM DURA\u011eANLIK HEM DE BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130K S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek olmakla birlikte say\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik var. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirdi. Bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise Euro bekleniyor. Euro-dolar paritesi hem 1.15 seviyelerinde dura\u011fanla\u015ft\u0131 hem de belirsizlikler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Anla\u015fmas\u0131z Brexit, Euro\u2019yu ve sterlini zay\u0131flatacak.<\/span><\/p>

6 - 2019\u2019DA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLEN PAZAR YOK, T\u00dcM PAZARLAR FIRSATLAR SUNUYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat hedeflerine ula\u015fmas\u0131nda ihracat pazarlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak olu\u015facak ithalat talebi \u00f6nemli olacak. 2019\u2019da genel olarak ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerde 2018\u2019e g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, hi\u00e7bir pazarda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme beklenmiyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcm pazarlar, ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar sunmaya devam edecek. 2019\u2019da y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan Polonya, Romanya, Kazakistan, T\u00fcrkmenistan, G\u00fcrcistan, Irak, BAE, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u0130srail, Gana ve Kenya ihracat i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok f\u0131rsatlar sunacak.<\/span><\/p>

7 - 2019\u2019DA \u0130HRACATTA R\u0130SKLER FIRSATLARDAN DAHA \u00c7OK, \u0130HRACATA \u0130SE DAHA \u00c7OK DESTEK GEREK\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide ve ticarette 2019\u2019da beklenen yava\u015flama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu ihracat hedefine ula\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermesi gerek. 2019\u2019da bu ihracat hedefine ula\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in ihracat birim fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, mevcut pazarlarda pay\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi ve yeni pazarlara eri\u015fim ile \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011finin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli olacak. T\u00fcrkiye 182 milyar dolarl\u0131k ihracat hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in kamu ihracat desteklerini de art\u0131rmal\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Eximbank kredi ve teminat olanaklar\u0131, alacak sigortalar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kuru risk y\u00f6netim \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> Risklere ra\u011fmen ihracatta f\u0131rsatlar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, 2019 f\u0131rsatlar odakl\u0131 desteklerin y\u0131l\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019-ihracatinda-riskler-ve-firsatlar","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019 ihracat\u0131nda riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":283,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19973,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19874,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2019 ihracat\u0131nda riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Ekonomide uygulanan dengelenme politikalar\u0131 ile 2019\u2019da i\u00e7 talep s\u0131n\u0131rlanmaya devam edecek. Bu nedenle ihracat, firmalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu olacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ihracata ili\u015fkin 2019 risklerini ve f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span><\/p>

1 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE YAVA\u015eLAMA MAL TALEB\u0130NDEK\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DE SINIRLAYACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 3.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019ye iniyor. ABD\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenirken, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 1.8 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e inece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerde yava\u015flama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihra\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik talepteki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak.<\/span><\/p>

2 - D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 5 \u0130NECEK, \u0130HRACATTA REKABET ARTACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin ise 2019\u2019da miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.6 geni\u015flemesi beklenirken, petrol, emtia ve mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dura\u011fanla\u015fma ile birlikte de\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi ve 19.68 trilyon dolara ula\u015fabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama ve korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri mal ticaretindeki geni\u015flemeyi de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u00fcresel ihracat performans\u0131n\u0131n 2017 ve 2018\u2019in alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130\u015fte bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir veri olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 rekabet artacak.<\/span><\/p>

3 - ABD VE \u00c7\u0130N T\u0130CARET M\u00dcZAKERELER\u0130NDE ANLA\u015eAMAZLAR \u0130SE KORUMACILIK SERTLE\u015eECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da d\u00fcnya ticareti \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkili olacak en \u00f6nemli risk, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticari korumac\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi. Her iki \u00fclke 1 Mart\u2019a kadar ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek anla\u015fma arayacak. Ancak anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 halinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ticaretin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kapsayacak ilave g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri uygulanmas\u0131 riski var. Bu riskin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri uygulanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak. <\/span><\/p>

4 - B\u00dcY\u00dcK BR\u0130TANYA\u2019NIN AB\u2019DEN NASIL AYRILACA\u011eI \u00d6NEML\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya ile AB aras\u0131nda anla\u015fmas\u0131z bir ayr\u0131l\u0131k ya\u015fanmas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli riski olu\u015fturuyor. 2019 mart ay\u0131na kadar iki taraf aras\u0131nda s\u00fcre\u00e7te ilerleme sa\u011flanamaz ise anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131l\u0131k ihtimali art\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n AB\u2019den anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nce B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n sonra AB\u2019nin ve de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaretini olumsuz etkileyecek. <\/span><\/p>

5 - EURO-DOLAR PAR\u0130TES\u0130NDE HEM DURA\u011eANLIK HEM DE BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130K S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek olmakla birlikte say\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik var. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirdi. Bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise Euro bekleniyor. Euro-dolar paritesi hem 1.15 seviyelerinde dura\u011fanla\u015ft\u0131 hem de belirsizlikler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Anla\u015fmas\u0131z Brexit, Euro\u2019yu ve sterlini zay\u0131flatacak.<\/span><\/p>

6 - 2019\u2019DA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLEN PAZAR YOK, T\u00dcM PAZARLAR FIRSATLAR SUNUYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat hedeflerine ula\u015fmas\u0131nda ihracat pazarlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak olu\u015facak ithalat talebi \u00f6nemli olacak. 2019\u2019da genel olarak ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerde 2018\u2019e g\u00f6re bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, hi\u00e7bir pazarda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme beklenmiyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcm pazarlar, ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar sunmaya devam edecek. 2019\u2019da y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan Polonya, Romanya, Kazakistan, T\u00fcrkmenistan, G\u00fcrcistan, Irak, BAE, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u0130srail, Gana ve Kenya ihracat i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok f\u0131rsatlar sunacak.<\/span><\/p>

7 - 2019\u2019DA \u0130HRACATTA R\u0130SKLER FIRSATLARDAN DAHA \u00c7OK, \u0130HRACATA \u0130SE DAHA \u00c7OK DESTEK GEREK\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide ve ticarette 2019\u2019da beklenen yava\u015flama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu ihracat hedefine ula\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermesi gerek. 2019\u2019da bu ihracat hedefine ula\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in ihracat birim fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, mevcut pazarlarda pay\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi ve yeni pazarlara eri\u015fim ile \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011finin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli olacak. T\u00fcrkiye 182 milyar dolarl\u0131k ihracat hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in kamu ihracat desteklerini de art\u0131rmal\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Eximbank kredi ve teminat olanaklar\u0131, alacak sigortalar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kuru risk y\u00f6netim \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> Risklere ra\u011fmen ihracatta f\u0131rsatlar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, 2019 f\u0131rsatlar odakl\u0131 desteklerin y\u0131l\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019-ihracatinda-riskler-ve-firsatlar","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019 ihracat\u0131nda riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":283,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}