{"status":true,"post":{"id":12859,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:20:04","created_at":"2015-12-27T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:20:04.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12859,"is_featured":0,"title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>

1.<\/strong> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.7, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.2, geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

2<\/strong>. ABD\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.8, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde y\u00fczde 1.6, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde y\u00fczde 2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>

3.<\/strong> D\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. De\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.5-2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek 16.3-16.4 trilyon dolar olacak.<\/span><\/p>

4.<\/strong> ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek, y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karacak. Fed \u00fcyelerinin beklentisi y\u00fczde 1.4, piyasa beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 0.75-1.<\/span><\/p>

5.<\/strong> ABD Dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5-10 daha de\u011ferlenecek. ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi de dolara y\u00f6n verecek.<\/span><\/p>

6.<\/strong> Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ilave parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecek, ithalat desteklenecek. AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalat y\u00fczde 4-5 artabilir.<\/span><\/p>

7<\/strong>. Euro\/dolar paritesi y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 1.05, y\u0131lsonuna do\u011fru 1\u2019e yakla\u015facak (ABD se\u00e7imleri ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2017 planlar\u0131 y\u0131lsonunda farkl\u0131 e\u011filimler olu\u015fturabilir).<\/span><\/p>

8.<\/strong> \u00c7in yeni ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeline ge\u00e7i\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 6-6.5 aras\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak.<\/span><\/p>

9.<\/strong> Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ilave arz (\u0130ran, Irak, ABD) nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacak, ortalama 40 dolar seviyelerinde kalabilir. 30 dolar alt\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve siyasetinde k\u0131r\u0131lmalar getirir(K\u00fcresel tahvil piyasas\u0131nda sistematik risk, s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar).<\/span><\/p>

10.<\/strong> Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalacak, y\u00fczde 5-10 gerileme ile dip seviyeler g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde dip seviyelerden toparlanma ba\u015flayabilir.<\/span><\/p>

11.<\/strong> Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ayr\u0131\u015facak. Rusya, Brezilya, G\u00fcney Afrika olumsuz ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, referandum ve MB ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ekonomi politikalar\u0131 belirleyecek.<\/span><\/p>

T<\/strong><\/span>\u00dcRK\u0130YE EKONOM\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>

1.<\/strong> Jeopolitik ve g\u00fcvenlik riskleri y\u0131l boyunca s\u00fcrecek (G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Anadolu B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki geli\u015fmeler, Rusya, Suriye, Irak).<\/span><\/p>

<\/span>2<\/strong>.Avrupa Birli\u011fi fas\u0131llar\u0131 ve ekonomide reformlar \u00e7\u0131pa olarak uygulanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak.<\/span><\/p>

3.<\/strong> Ekonomide \u00f6ncelik para-maliye ve gelirler politikas\u0131 ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek.<\/span><\/p>

4.<\/strong> Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3.5-4. Asgari \u00fccret ve di\u011fer gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 t\u00fcketimi destekleyecek. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>

5.<\/strong> Cari a\u00e7\u0131k 35-36 milyar dolar ile y\u00f6netilebilir olacak, ancak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 zorlu olacak.<\/span><\/p>

6.<\/strong> Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sermaye k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yeterlili\u011fi kat\u0131 reg\u00fclasyonlar ile katlan\u0131labilir azami s\u0131n\u0131ra geriledi. Reg\u00fclasyonlar esnemeden yeni kredi olana\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) y\u00fczde 10-12 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

7.<\/strong> Enflasyon, ba\u015fta \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckselecek. Y\u0131lsonunda T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 8.5-9 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

8.<\/strong> Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir politika izleyecek;y\u00fczde 5 enflasyon hedefini 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na \u00f6teledi. Daha y\u00fcksek mevduat-kredi ve tahvil faizleri olacak. Kredi faizleri y\u00fczde 15-16 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

9.<\/strong> T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda dolar kuru dip seviyeleri 2.75-2.85 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, pivot seviyeleri 2.90-3 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, tavan seviyesi 3.15-3.20 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 y\u0131l genelinde pivot seviyelerden tavan seviyelere do\u011fru hareket edecek.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z;<\/strong> umar\u0131z 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 herkes i\u00e7in ekonomik beklentilerimizden \u00e7ok daha iyi bir y\u0131l olur.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2016-yili-ongoruleri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":390,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12958,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12859,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>

1.<\/strong> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.7, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.2, geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

2<\/strong>. ABD\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.8, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde y\u00fczde 1.6, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde y\u00fczde 2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>

3.<\/strong> D\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. De\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.5-2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek 16.3-16.4 trilyon dolar olacak.<\/span><\/p>

4.<\/strong> ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek, y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karacak. Fed \u00fcyelerinin beklentisi y\u00fczde 1.4, piyasa beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 0.75-1.<\/span><\/p>

5.<\/strong> ABD Dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5-10 daha de\u011ferlenecek. ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi de dolara y\u00f6n verecek.<\/span><\/p>

6.<\/strong> Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ilave parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecek, ithalat desteklenecek. AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalat y\u00fczde 4-5 artabilir.<\/span><\/p>

7<\/strong>. Euro\/dolar paritesi y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 1.05, y\u0131lsonuna do\u011fru 1\u2019e yakla\u015facak (ABD se\u00e7imleri ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2017 planlar\u0131 y\u0131lsonunda farkl\u0131 e\u011filimler olu\u015fturabilir).<\/span><\/p>

8.<\/strong> \u00c7in yeni ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeline ge\u00e7i\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 6-6.5 aras\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak.<\/span><\/p>

9.<\/strong> Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ilave arz (\u0130ran, Irak, ABD) nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacak, ortalama 40 dolar seviyelerinde kalabilir. 30 dolar alt\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve siyasetinde k\u0131r\u0131lmalar getirir(K\u00fcresel tahvil piyasas\u0131nda sistematik risk, s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar).<\/span><\/p>

10.<\/strong> Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalacak, y\u00fczde 5-10 gerileme ile dip seviyeler g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde dip seviyelerden toparlanma ba\u015flayabilir.<\/span><\/p>

11.<\/strong> Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ayr\u0131\u015facak. Rusya, Brezilya, G\u00fcney Afrika olumsuz ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, referandum ve MB ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ekonomi politikalar\u0131 belirleyecek.<\/span><\/p>

T<\/strong><\/span>\u00dcRK\u0130YE EKONOM\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>

1.<\/strong> Jeopolitik ve g\u00fcvenlik riskleri y\u0131l boyunca s\u00fcrecek (G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Anadolu B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki geli\u015fmeler, Rusya, Suriye, Irak).<\/span><\/p>

<\/span>2<\/strong>.Avrupa Birli\u011fi fas\u0131llar\u0131 ve ekonomide reformlar \u00e7\u0131pa olarak uygulanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak.<\/span><\/p>

3.<\/strong> Ekonomide \u00f6ncelik para-maliye ve gelirler politikas\u0131 ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek.<\/span><\/p>

4.<\/strong> Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3.5-4. Asgari \u00fccret ve di\u011fer gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 t\u00fcketimi destekleyecek. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>

5.<\/strong> Cari a\u00e7\u0131k 35-36 milyar dolar ile y\u00f6netilebilir olacak, ancak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 zorlu olacak.<\/span><\/p>

6.<\/strong> Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sermaye k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yeterlili\u011fi kat\u0131 reg\u00fclasyonlar ile katlan\u0131labilir azami s\u0131n\u0131ra geriledi. Reg\u00fclasyonlar esnemeden yeni kredi olana\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacak. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) y\u00fczde 10-12 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

7.<\/strong> Enflasyon, ba\u015fta \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckselecek. Y\u0131lsonunda T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 8.5-9 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

8.<\/strong> Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir politika izleyecek;y\u00fczde 5 enflasyon hedefini 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na \u00f6teledi. Daha y\u00fcksek mevduat-kredi ve tahvil faizleri olacak. Kredi faizleri y\u00fczde 15-16 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

9.<\/strong> T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda dolar kuru dip seviyeleri 2.75-2.85 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, pivot seviyeleri 2.90-3 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, tavan seviyesi 3.15-3.20 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 y\u0131l genelinde pivot seviyelerden tavan seviyelere do\u011fru hareket edecek.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z;<\/strong> umar\u0131z 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 herkes i\u00e7in ekonomik beklentilerimizden \u00e7ok daha iyi bir y\u0131l olur.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2016-yili-ongoruleri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":390,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}