{"status":true,"post":{"id":12705,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:18:58","created_at":"2015-10-18T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:18:58.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12705,"is_featured":0,"title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ve ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin yava\u015flama etkisi alt\u0131nda tamaml\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ve y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatacak. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 artarken, dolar ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6-7 gerileme g\u00f6sterecek. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00f6yle tamamlan\u0131rken 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de ilk tahminler yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilk tahminleri de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1. Daha y\u00fcksek dolar faizi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, zay\u0131f emtia ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve d\u00fcnya mal ticaretine ili\u015fkin ilk tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131rken kullan\u0131lan varsay\u0131mlar \u015funlard\u0131r: \u00d6ncelikle FED\u2019in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda faizleri art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dolar ve yerel faizlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa ve Japonya\u2019da geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131 ve \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler s\u00fcrecek. Bu nedenle Euro ve Yen cinsi faizler iki istisna olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalacak. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir miktar daha de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n metaller, g\u0131da ve k\u0131ymetli madenlerde 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 seviyelerinde ve zay\u0131f kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ise siyasi ve jeopolitik beklenmedik olas\u0131 etkiler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 50 dolarlar seviyesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00f6ylece 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir miktar h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f olacak. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019dir. ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ise 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 1.6 ve y\u00fczde 1.9 ile ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Japonya, Kanada ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler de 2015\u2019in bir miktar \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecekler. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilk tahminler geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in iyimser beklentilere sahip bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3. \u00c7in ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme belirleyici olacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7ine girdi\u011fi yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm nedeniyle yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n kontroll\u00fc, y\u00f6netilebilir ve makul seviyelerde olmas\u0131 \u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Kontrols\u00fcz ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yava\u015flama d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in de s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratacak. \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 7\u2019de tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Ancak 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fczde 6.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcm geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019tir. \u00c7in hari\u00e7 di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 7.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Brezilya\u2019da y\u00fczde 1, Rusya\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 0.6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme tahmin ediliyor. Yak\u0131n ve kom\u015fu pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n oldu\u011fu G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkeleri, Rusya ve Ukrayna d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki BDT \u00fclkeleri ile Ortado\u011fu, Kuzey Afrika ve Sahra Afrika \u00fclkeleri 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek ama dolar ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fer baz\u0131nda dura\u011fan kalacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken dolar ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6-7 aras\u0131nda gerileyerek 17.1-17.3 trilyon dolar aras\u0131na iniyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.9 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak mal ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 ve parite farklar\u0131 ile (Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi) ticaretin de\u011fer olarak y\u00fczde 1.5-2 daha gerileyerek 17 trilyon dolara gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ithalat\u0131nda miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.2, geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin ithalat\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 5.2 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclke ithalat pazarlar\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir miktar toparlanacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> Se\u00e7imler nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de resmi 2016 hedefleri ve beklentileri hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klanamad\u0131, ama d\u00fcnyan\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.9.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"2016-yili-icin-ilk-beklentiler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk beklentiler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1134,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12804,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12705,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ve ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin yava\u015flama etkisi alt\u0131nda tamaml\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ve y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatacak. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 artarken, dolar ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6-7 gerileme g\u00f6sterecek. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00f6yle tamamlan\u0131rken 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de ilk tahminler yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilk tahminleri de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1. Daha y\u00fcksek dolar faizi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, zay\u0131f emtia ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve d\u00fcnya mal ticaretine ili\u015fkin ilk tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131rken kullan\u0131lan varsay\u0131mlar \u015funlard\u0131r: \u00d6ncelikle FED\u2019in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda faizleri art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dolar ve yerel faizlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda Avrupa ve Japonya\u2019da geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131 ve \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler s\u00fcrecek. Bu nedenle Euro ve Yen cinsi faizler iki istisna olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalacak. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir miktar daha de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n metaller, g\u0131da ve k\u0131ymetli madenlerde 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 seviyelerinde ve zay\u0131f kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ise siyasi ve jeopolitik beklenmedik olas\u0131 etkiler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 50 dolarlar seviyesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00f6ylece 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir miktar h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f olacak. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019dir. ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ise 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 1.6 ve y\u00fczde 1.9 ile ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Japonya, Kanada ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler de 2015\u2019in bir miktar \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecekler. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilk tahminler geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in iyimser beklentilere sahip bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3. \u00c7in ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme belirleyici olacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7ine girdi\u011fi yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm nedeniyle yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n kontroll\u00fc, y\u00f6netilebilir ve makul seviyelerde olmas\u0131 \u00c7in ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Kontrols\u00fcz ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yava\u015flama d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in de s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yaratacak. \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 7\u2019de tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Ancak 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fczde 6.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcm geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019tir. \u00c7in hari\u00e7 di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 7.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Brezilya\u2019da y\u00fczde 1, Rusya\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 0.6 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme tahmin ediliyor. Yak\u0131n ve kom\u015fu pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n oldu\u011fu G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkeleri, Rusya ve Ukrayna d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki BDT \u00fclkeleri ile Ortado\u011fu, Kuzey Afrika ve Sahra Afrika \u00fclkeleri 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek ama dolar ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fer baz\u0131nda dura\u011fan kalacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken dolar ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fer baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6-7 aras\u0131nda gerileyerek 17.1-17.3 trilyon dolar aras\u0131na iniyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.9 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak mal ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 ve parite farklar\u0131 ile (Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi) ticaretin de\u011fer olarak y\u00fczde 1.5-2 daha gerileyerek 17 trilyon dolara gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ithalat\u0131nda miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.2, geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin ithalat\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 5.2 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclke ithalat pazarlar\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir miktar toparlanacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> Se\u00e7imler nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de resmi 2016 hedefleri ve beklentileri hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klanamad\u0131, ama d\u00fcnyan\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.9.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"2016-yili-icin-ilk-beklentiler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk beklentiler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1134,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}