{"status":true,"post":{"id":28010,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:38:42","created_at":"2021-08-19T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:38:42.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":28010,"is_featured":0,"title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u2018minimum\u2019 y\u00fczde 29.9","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun (T\u00dc\u0130K) 12 A\u011fustos Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haziran ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi sonras\u0131nda hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminimiz, y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla, y\u00fczde 29.905 olarak \u015fekillendi. Bu tahminde en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 24.40; en olumlu senaryoya g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 33.41-35.41 olarak hesap yapt\u0131k. Bu nedenle, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmeyecek bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla, 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 30 ve \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu oran, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131ndan birisine i\u015faret edecek.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
5 YILLIK B\u00dcY\u00dcME ORANLARI<\/strong><\/span>
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K\u00fcresel rekabetin en iddial\u0131 seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00c7in, Hindistan gibi \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmede hayli iddial\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2000\u2019li y\u0131llardaki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n 97 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet tarihinde ilk 25\u2019de yer almas\u0131 not al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir performans. Bu noktada, t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik sistemin, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerinin \u2018Kovid-19\u2019 k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ayakta kalma m\u00fccadelesi verdikleri, d\u00fcnya ekonomi tarihinin en a\u011f\u0131r bedel \u00f6denen d\u00f6nemlerinden birisinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin t\u00fcm 2020\u2019yi d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tamamlamay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f 5 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ipi 4. s\u0131rada g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcslemi\u015f olmas\u0131 ve kuvvetle muhtemel 2021\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da, yine ilk 5 aras\u0131nda yer almay\u0131 \u015fimdiden garantilemi\u015f iken, bu y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek 5 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ilk 3 i\u00e7erisinde yer alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da hayli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 not al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/span>
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TAHM\u0130N Y\u00dcZDE 30<\/strong><\/span>
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1 Eyl\u00fcl \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na y\u00f6nelik y\u00fczde 30\u2019a dayanan tahminimiz, y\u00fczde 30 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 30\u2019u ge\u00e7ece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz performans, bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1998\u2019i baz alarak, 1999 ile 2021 aras\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda, son 22 y\u0131l\u0131n rekor b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olacak. 1923\u2019den bu yana dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ilk 5\u2019e girer. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olarak ekonomi tarihine ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hayli y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu \u015fimdiden rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/span>
<\/span>
30 Temmuz\u2019daki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda, o ana kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 28-32 aras\u0131nda gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hayli y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve bu nedenle uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik kurulu\u015flar, rating kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminlerini yukar\u0131 do\u011fru revize edeceklerini ifade etmi\u015ftim. Nitekim, ilk revize Fitch\u2019den y\u00fczde 6,3\u2019den y\u00fczde 7,9\u2019a \u015feklinde geldi. 1 Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131, yeni revizeleri de g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz.<\/span>
<\/span>
***<\/span>
<\/span>
Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi kurumlar\u0131, bir d\u00f6nemin neo-liberal ekonomiyi en \u015fiddetli savunan IMF\u2019si dahi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) dahi, k\u00fcresel pandeminin yaralar\u0131n\u0131n sar\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik geni\u015fletici para ve maliye politikas\u0131 tedbirlerini sonland\u0131rmada aceleci davran\u0131lmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini \u0131srarla vurguluyorlar.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6NCEL\u0130KL\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KALAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dcretim, istihdam ve ihracat i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ayakta kalmas\u0131 elzem ise, enflasyon ve fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile faiz politikas\u0131 aras\u0131nda, \u00fcretimi, istihdam\u0131 ve ihracat\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendirecek patikay\u0131 iyi rotalamak gerekiyor. Bu anlamda, haz\u0131r T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u2018y\u00fcksek katma de\u011fere\u2019 dayal\u0131, \u2018kaliteli\u2019 ve \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f iken, uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n raporlar\u0131n\u0131 da iyi takip ederek, 2021\u2019i \u00fcretim, istihdam ve ihracat odakl\u0131 patikada s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmemizde sonsuz yarar var.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2-ceyrek-buyume-minimum-yuzde-299","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u2018minimum\u2019 y\u00fczde 29.9","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1090,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":28109,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":28010,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u2018minimum\u2019 y\u00fczde 29.9","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun (T\u00dc\u0130K) 12 A\u011fustos Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haziran ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi sonras\u0131nda hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminimiz, y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla, y\u00fczde 29.905 olarak \u015fekillendi. Bu tahminde en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 24.40; en olumlu senaryoya g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 33.41-35.41 olarak hesap yapt\u0131k. Bu nedenle, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmeyecek bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla, 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 30 ve \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu oran, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131ndan birisine i\u015faret edecek.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
5 YILLIK B\u00dcY\u00dcME ORANLARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00fcresel rekabetin en iddial\u0131 seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00c7in, Hindistan gibi \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmede hayli iddial\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2000\u2019li y\u0131llardaki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n 97 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet tarihinde ilk 25\u2019de yer almas\u0131 not al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir performans. Bu noktada, t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik sistemin, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerinin \u2018Kovid-19\u2019 k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ayakta kalma m\u00fccadelesi verdikleri, d\u00fcnya ekonomi tarihinin en a\u011f\u0131r bedel \u00f6denen d\u00f6nemlerinden birisinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin t\u00fcm 2020\u2019yi d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tamamlamay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f 5 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ipi 4. s\u0131rada g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcslemi\u015f olmas\u0131 ve kuvvetle muhtemel 2021\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da, yine ilk 5 aras\u0131nda yer almay\u0131 \u015fimdiden garantilemi\u015f iken, bu y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek 5 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ilk 3 i\u00e7erisinde yer alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da hayli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 not al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
TAHM\u0130N Y\u00dcZDE 30<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
1 Eyl\u00fcl \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na y\u00f6nelik y\u00fczde 30\u2019a dayanan tahminimiz, y\u00fczde 30 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 30\u2019u ge\u00e7ece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz performans, bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1998\u2019i baz alarak, 1999 ile 2021 aras\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda, son 22 y\u0131l\u0131n rekor b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olacak. 1923\u2019den bu yana dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ilk 5\u2019e girer. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olarak ekonomi tarihine ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hayli y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu \u015fimdiden rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/span>
<\/span>
30 Temmuz\u2019daki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda, o ana kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 28-32 aras\u0131nda gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hayli y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve bu nedenle uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik kurulu\u015flar, rating kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminlerini yukar\u0131 do\u011fru revize edeceklerini ifade etmi\u015ftim. Nitekim, ilk revize Fitch\u2019den y\u00fczde 6,3\u2019den y\u00fczde 7,9\u2019a \u015feklinde geldi. 1 Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131, yeni revizeleri de g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz.<\/span>
<\/span>
***<\/span>
<\/span>
Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi kurumlar\u0131, bir d\u00f6nemin neo-liberal ekonomiyi en \u015fiddetli savunan IMF\u2019si dahi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) dahi, k\u00fcresel pandeminin yaralar\u0131n\u0131n sar\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik geni\u015fletici para ve maliye politikas\u0131 tedbirlerini sonland\u0131rmada aceleci davran\u0131lmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini \u0131srarla vurguluyorlar.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6NCEL\u0130KL\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KALAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dcretim, istihdam ve ihracat i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ayakta kalmas\u0131 elzem ise, enflasyon ve fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile faiz politikas\u0131 aras\u0131nda, \u00fcretimi, istihdam\u0131 ve ihracat\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendirecek patikay\u0131 iyi rotalamak gerekiyor. Bu anlamda, haz\u0131r T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u2018y\u00fcksek katma de\u011fere\u2019 dayal\u0131, \u2018kaliteli\u2019 ve \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f iken, uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n raporlar\u0131n\u0131 da iyi takip ederek, 2021\u2019i \u00fcretim, istihdam ve ihracat odakl\u0131 patikada s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmemizde sonsuz yarar var.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2-ceyrek-buyume-minimum-yuzde-299","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u2018minimum\u2019 y\u00fczde 29.9","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1090,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}