{"status":true,"post":{"id":12724,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:19:07","created_at":"2015-10-25T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:19:07.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12724,"is_featured":0,"title":"1 Kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 dolar 2.70 TL'yi deneyebilir","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u0130nsan g\u00fcls\u00fcn m\u00fc, sinirlensin mi, bilemiyor. Haftalard\u0131r, hatta aylard\u0131r, gazetemizde defalarca T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131'ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve temel makro dengelerle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini, TL'deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda '\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f' oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ankara\u2019daki menfur sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu 'blast' etkisi, art\u0131k kimlerin kula\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131ysa, birden bire uluslararas\u0131 finans merkezlerinde, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131'n\u0131n 'gere\u011finden fazla' de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f oldu\u011funa dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Reel sekt\u00f6rde, menfur ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, dolar-TL kurunun 3.10; hatta 3.20 TL d\u00fczeyini bile test edebilece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, t\u00fcm \u00fclkeyi \u015fok eden bir bombal\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrken; tersine ve aksine, dolar-TL kurunun 2.90 TL alt\u0131nda kapatmas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evrelerini \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Ben ise kendi cephemde, bana dan\u0131\u015fanlara, bu sald\u0131r\u0131 sonras\u0131n\u0131 takip edecek hafta i\u00e7erisinde, dolar-TL kurunun 2.96 TL'yi k\u0131rmamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamaktayd\u0131m. Nitekim 14 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ise 2.90 TL'nin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinin bekledi\u011finden daha sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki d\u00fczeltme kimseyi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131 dersem yalan olur.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TL'N\u0130N DE\u011eER KAYBINDA '\u00d6L\u00c7\u00dc' KA\u00c7MI\u015eTI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Normal ko\u015fullar i\u00e7erisinde, dolar kurunun 2.23 TL olmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. TL'deki 80 kuru\u015fluk 'fazladan' de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n bir m\u00fcsebbibi ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed). Fed'in k\u00fcresel sistemde sebep oldu\u011fu \u00e7alkant\u0131, TL'ye de 40 kuru\u015fluk de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fatt\u0131rd\u0131. 20 kuru\u015fluk de\u011fer kayb\u0131, yang\u0131n yeri konumundaki Irak ve Suriye'ye kom\u015fu olmaktan, I\u015fid'den, K\u0131r\u0131m'\u0131 ilhak etmi\u015f olan Rusya'n\u0131n maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargolardan kaynaklan\u0131yor. M\u0131s\u0131r politikam\u0131z nedeniyle K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ile aram\u0131zdaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da ekleyebiliriz. 20 kuru\u015fluk etki ise Gezi Park\u0131 olaylar\u0131ndan bu yana T\u00fcrkiye'de i\u00e7 siyasette g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz gerginlikten kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, e\u011fer Fed'in d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 40 kuru\u015fluk bir etkisi var ise muhakkak ki, ge\u00e7en haftaki gev\u015femede, Fed'in pek \u00e7ok gerek\u00e7eye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 almas\u0131 ihtimalinin giderek zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair beklentinin etkisinden s\u00f6z edilebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bununla birlikte, piyasa profesyonelleri, bu derece \u00f6nemli bir ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda bile dolar-TL kurunda g\u00f6zlenen gev\u015femeyi birka\u00e7 gerek\u00e7eye daha ba\u011fl\u0131yorlar. Birincisi, uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ve yabanc\u0131 piyasa profesyonellerinin tutumu. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce, uluslararas\u0131 finans merkezlerinde, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin 'dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k testi'nden beklenenden daha kuvvetli \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n (TCMB) her ay a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Reel Efektif D\u00f6viz Kuru Endeksi'nde, endeksin baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 2003 y\u0131l\u0131 verilerine gelecek kadar gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131, TL'deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda '\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131' (overdose) \u015feklinde yorumlan\u0131yor. Bu noktada, 14-15 g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar-TL kuru 2.90 TL'nin alt\u0131na gelince, 1.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k al\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f olan T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n talebinin Londra taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>YEN\u0130 MECL\u0130S H\u00dcK\u00dcMET \u00c7IKARIRSA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hazine birimlerindeki yerli profesyonellerinin Londra ve New York gibi finans merkezlerindeki yabanc\u0131 muhataplar\u0131yla yapt\u0131klar\u0131 sohbet ve de\u011ferlendirmeler, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasa profesyonellerinin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bundan daha karanl\u0131k bir senaryo beklemediklerine i\u015faret ediyor. 1 Kas\u0131m genel se\u00e7imlerinden makul bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde kurulacak bir koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin de kuvvetli oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu nedenle de, TL'deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k fazla ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu noktadan tekrar TL'ye d\u00f6n\u00fclebilece\u011fi, k\u0131smen hisse senedi ve tahvil al\u0131nabilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. Bu noktada, Fed'in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 2016'ya kalabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda konu\u015fulduk\u00e7a, daha fazla prim g\u00f6rd\u00fck\u00e7e, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f paralardan birisi olan TL'nin iyi bir d\u00fczeltme yapmas\u0131n\u0131n hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulanmaktaym\u0131\u015f. Geli\u015fmelerin bu y\u00f6nde devam etmesi ve 1 Kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 h\u0131zla bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurulmas\u0131 halinde, dolar-TL'nin \u00f6nce 2.82-2.78 TL band\u0131na, bu band\u0131n da k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 2.70 TL'ye kadar dahi \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyormu\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"1-kasim-sonrasi-dolar-270-tlyi-deneyebilir","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"1 Kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 dolar 2.70 TL'yi deneyebilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":943,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12823,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12724,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"1 Kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 dolar 2.70 TL'yi deneyebilir","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u0130nsan g\u00fcls\u00fcn m\u00fc, sinirlensin mi, bilemiyor. Haftalard\u0131r, hatta aylard\u0131r, gazetemizde defalarca T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131'ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve temel makro dengelerle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini, TL'deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda '\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f' oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ankara\u2019daki menfur sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu 'blast' etkisi, art\u0131k kimlerin kula\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131ysa, birden bire uluslararas\u0131 finans merkezlerinde, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131'n\u0131n 'gere\u011finden fazla' de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f oldu\u011funa dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Reel sekt\u00f6rde, menfur ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, dolar-TL kurunun 3.10; hatta 3.20 TL d\u00fczeyini bile test edebilece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, t\u00fcm \u00fclkeyi \u015fok eden bir bombal\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrken; tersine ve aksine, dolar-TL kurunun 2.90 TL alt\u0131nda kapatmas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evrelerini \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Ben ise kendi cephemde, bana dan\u0131\u015fanlara, bu sald\u0131r\u0131 sonras\u0131n\u0131 takip edecek hafta i\u00e7erisinde, dolar-TL kurunun 2.96 TL'yi k\u0131rmamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamaktayd\u0131m. Nitekim 14 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ise 2.90 TL'nin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinin bekledi\u011finden daha sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ndeki d\u00fczeltme kimseyi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131 dersem yalan olur.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TL'N\u0130N DE\u011eER KAYBINDA '\u00d6L\u00c7\u00dc' KA\u00c7MI\u015eTI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Normal ko\u015fullar i\u00e7erisinde, dolar kurunun 2.23 TL olmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. TL'deki 80 kuru\u015fluk 'fazladan' de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n bir m\u00fcsebbibi ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed). Fed'in k\u00fcresel sistemde sebep oldu\u011fu \u00e7alkant\u0131, TL'ye de 40 kuru\u015fluk de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fatt\u0131rd\u0131. 20 kuru\u015fluk de\u011fer kayb\u0131, yang\u0131n yeri konumundaki Irak ve Suriye'ye kom\u015fu olmaktan, I\u015fid'den, K\u0131r\u0131m'\u0131 ilhak etmi\u015f olan Rusya'n\u0131n maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargolardan kaynaklan\u0131yor. M\u0131s\u0131r politikam\u0131z nedeniyle K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ile aram\u0131zdaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da ekleyebiliriz. 20 kuru\u015fluk etki ise Gezi Park\u0131 olaylar\u0131ndan bu yana T\u00fcrkiye'de i\u00e7 siyasette g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz gerginlikten kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, e\u011fer Fed'in d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 40 kuru\u015fluk bir etkisi var ise muhakkak ki, ge\u00e7en haftaki gev\u015femede, Fed'in pek \u00e7ok gerek\u00e7eye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 almas\u0131 ihtimalinin giderek zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair beklentinin etkisinden s\u00f6z edilebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bununla birlikte, piyasa profesyonelleri, bu derece \u00f6nemli bir ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda bile dolar-TL kurunda g\u00f6zlenen gev\u015femeyi birka\u00e7 gerek\u00e7eye daha ba\u011fl\u0131yorlar. Birincisi, uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ve yabanc\u0131 piyasa profesyonellerinin tutumu. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce, uluslararas\u0131 finans merkezlerinde, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin 'dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k testi'nden beklenenden daha kuvvetli \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n (TCMB) her ay a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Reel Efektif D\u00f6viz Kuru Endeksi'nde, endeksin baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 2003 y\u0131l\u0131 verilerine gelecek kadar gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131, TL'deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda '\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131' (overdose) \u015feklinde yorumlan\u0131yor. Bu noktada, 14-15 g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar-TL kuru 2.90 TL'nin alt\u0131na gelince, 1.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k al\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f olan T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n talebinin Londra taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>YEN\u0130 MECL\u0130S H\u00dcK\u00dcMET \u00c7IKARIRSA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hazine birimlerindeki yerli profesyonellerinin Londra ve New York gibi finans merkezlerindeki yabanc\u0131 muhataplar\u0131yla yapt\u0131klar\u0131 sohbet ve de\u011ferlendirmeler, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasa profesyonellerinin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bundan daha karanl\u0131k bir senaryo beklemediklerine i\u015faret ediyor. 1 Kas\u0131m genel se\u00e7imlerinden makul bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde kurulacak bir koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin de kuvvetli oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu nedenle de, TL'deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k fazla ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu noktadan tekrar TL'ye d\u00f6n\u00fclebilece\u011fi, k\u0131smen hisse senedi ve tahvil al\u0131nabilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. Bu noktada, Fed'in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 2016'ya kalabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda konu\u015fulduk\u00e7a, daha fazla prim g\u00f6rd\u00fck\u00e7e, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f paralardan birisi olan TL'nin iyi bir d\u00fczeltme yapmas\u0131n\u0131n hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulanmaktaym\u0131\u015f. Geli\u015fmelerin bu y\u00f6nde devam etmesi ve 1 Kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 h\u0131zla bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurulmas\u0131 halinde, dolar-TL'nin \u00f6nce 2.82-2.78 TL band\u0131na, bu band\u0131n da k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 2.70 TL'ye kadar dahi \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyormu\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"1-kasim-sonrasi-dolar-270-tlyi-deneyebilir","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"1 Kas\u0131m sonras\u0131 dolar 2.70 TL'yi deneyebilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":943,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}