{"status":true,"post":{"id":57115,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-11-04 13:46:00","created_at":"2024-11-04T10:46:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-11-04T10:46:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":57115,"is_featured":0,"title":"2025 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"Bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ticaret yava\u015flad\u0131 ve ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde durgunluk ya\u015fand\u0131.","content":"

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019ye iniyor. Bir yandan geciken faiz indirimleri, di\u011fer yandan k\u00fcresel ayr\u0131\u015fma ve jeopolitik gerginlikler b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkiledi. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da riskler nedeniyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in temkinli b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. 2025 i\u00e7in de temkinli tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131yor<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fekillendi. Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da zay\u0131f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde bulundu. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli gev\u015feme ve faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerin yine ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahminleri yap\u0131ld\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, ABD se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ile sava\u015flar ve k\u00fcresel ayr\u0131\u015fma gibi riskler nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde temkinli davrand\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin birbirlerine olan etkilerini de dikkate alarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin geneli i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme hesaplamalar\u0131 ve tahminleri yap\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 olan d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019ye iniyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.8 olarak tahmin ediliyor. IMF, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme faiz indirimlerine ra\u011fmen yava\u015f olacak<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.7 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fcme yine y\u00fczde 1.8 olarak tahmin ediliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015fta AB pazar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin toparlanmas\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde beklenen faiz indirimlerine ra\u011fmen 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuldu. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.1 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1.6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Resesyon e\u015fi\u011finde olan ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyecek olan Almanya i\u00e7in 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 0.8 oldu. ABD\u2019de, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019ye inece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Beklenen faiz indirimlerinin ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. ABD\u2019de se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 uygulanacak politikalar da b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in belirsizlikler yarat\u0131yor. Trump ile ba\u015flayacak ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkileyecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde \u00c7in belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fckten sonra, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019dir. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131nda gerileme \u00c7in\u2019deki yava\u015flamadan kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u00c7in ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.8\u2019e iniyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4.5 olarak tahmin ediliyor. \u00c7in ekonomisinde yap\u0131sal sorunlar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flat\u0131yor ve hen\u00fcz bu sorunlar i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lamad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan ve ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ortado\u011fu ve kuzey Afrika b\u00f6lgesinde 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Orta Avrupa ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da dahil oldu\u011fu do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme sava\u015ftan etkilenmeye devam ediyor. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.2 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin OVP ihracat hedefi k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine g\u00f6re ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesi ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonominin genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. Olas\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, k\u00fcresel ayr\u0131\u015fma gibi geli\u015fmeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde para politikalar\u0131ndan daha belirleyici olaca\u011fa benziyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan y\u00fczde 5.9 ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hedefi de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SONS\u00d6Z<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u00e7 talebi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi olumsuz etkileyecek. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"-2025-kuresel-buyume-tahminleri","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1730667600au6vSOqcryWhri5.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":74,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":57241,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":57115,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2025 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"Bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ticaret yava\u015flad\u0131 ve ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde durgunluk ya\u015fand\u0131.","content":"

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019ye iniyor. Bir yandan geciken faiz indirimleri, di\u011fer yandan k\u00fcresel ayr\u0131\u015fma ve jeopolitik gerginlikler b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkiledi. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da riskler nedeniyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in temkinli b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. 2025 i\u00e7in de temkinli tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131yor<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fekillendi. Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da zay\u0131f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde bulundu. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli gev\u015feme ve faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerin yine ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahminleri yap\u0131ld\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, ABD se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ile sava\u015flar ve k\u00fcresel ayr\u0131\u015fma gibi riskler nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde temkinli davrand\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin birbirlerine olan etkilerini de dikkate alarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin geneli i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme hesaplamalar\u0131 ve tahminleri yap\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 olan d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019ye iniyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.8 olarak tahmin ediliyor. IMF, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme faiz indirimlerine ra\u011fmen yava\u015f olacak<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.7 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fcme yine y\u00fczde 1.8 olarak tahmin ediliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015fta AB pazar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin toparlanmas\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde beklenen faiz indirimlerine ra\u011fmen 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuldu. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.1 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1.6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Resesyon e\u015fi\u011finde olan ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyecek olan Almanya i\u00e7in 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 0.8 oldu. ABD\u2019de, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019ye inece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Beklenen faiz indirimlerinin ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. ABD\u2019de se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 uygulanacak politikalar da b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in belirsizlikler yarat\u0131yor. Trump ile ba\u015flayacak ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkileyecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde \u00c7in belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fckten sonra, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019dir. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131nda gerileme \u00c7in\u2019deki yava\u015flamadan kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u00c7in ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.8\u2019e iniyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4.5 olarak tahmin ediliyor. \u00c7in ekonomisinde yap\u0131sal sorunlar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flat\u0131yor ve hen\u00fcz bu sorunlar i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lamad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan ve ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ortado\u011fu ve kuzey Afrika b\u00f6lgesinde 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Orta Avrupa ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da dahil oldu\u011fu do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme sava\u015ftan etkilenmeye devam ediyor. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.2 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin OVP ihracat hedefi k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine g\u00f6re ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesi ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonominin genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. Olas\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, k\u00fcresel ayr\u0131\u015fma gibi geli\u015fmeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde para politikalar\u0131ndan daha belirleyici olaca\u011fa benziyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan y\u00fczde 5.9 ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hedefi de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

SONS\u00d6Z<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u00e7 talebi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi olumsuz etkileyecek. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"-2025-kuresel-buyume-tahminleri","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1730667600au6vSOqcryWhri5.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1730667600au6vSOqcryWhri5.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":74,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2024-12-04 13:01:52","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}